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Monitoring a potential important TV to East Coastal storm: Jan 17


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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya, no worries it’s all good. I understand/understood your point.  And I know you weren’t trying to steal anybody's snow(you’re gonna do great there and especially compared to us for sure anyway).  I was just shocked, as was Ginxy about the 84hr NAM.   But your point is well taken, and you’re right.  
 

Hopefully this was a good post….lol. 

Hey it's all good. I've been making homemade chicken soup from bone broth for 3 hours and when I saw multiple posts weenieing me about the 84hr NAM I just got a little set off. Onto the goofus.

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22 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I mean I'm trying to actually talk meteorology in here without posting memes for once. I'm not a huge fan of guessing what models will do or trying to interpret why they're doing every little thing that they show since there's a bajillion equations factored in and to some extent we have to take the models' "word" on it. But here I am anyway...just trying to throw an example out there explaining my $0.02 and I get defensive weenies butthurt because I didn't say all snow before slot.

I think you're projecting as this post sure sounds defensive.

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I also noticed on the soundings that back this way almost all of the omega was very low... right where the warm advection was maximized (like 850-700mb). For a while even with heavy precip we dried out at like -8c and above.

Even if you hold off the boundary layer torch by an hour or two... it wasn't exactly an encouraging sign. 

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1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

I also noticed on the soundings that back this way almost all of the omega was very low... right where the warm advection was maximized (like 850-700mb). For a while even with heavy precip we dried out at like -8c and above.

Even if you hold off the boundary layer torch by an hour or two... it wasn't exactly an encouraging sign. 

Yea, its fair to question snowgrowth, too with the mid levels so jacked up.

Not pretty.

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30 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Sensitive libs I tell ya…

DISCLAIMER: Sarcasm above and in reference to Steve’s post the other day defending Ant by calling out the libs. Seriously, I’m just clowning around.

I dunno bout libs, I'm just trying to get clear about all of the references to being butthurt, and not just from Woflie.  Freud wants ta know.

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32 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Sensitive libs I tell ya…

DISCLAIMER: Sarcasm above and in reference to Steve’s post the other day defending Ant by calling out the libs. Seriously, I’m just clowning around.

Lol guess you missed my clarification, calling out not you, not JC but the shit libs , you know the hypocrites who spew bs day in and day out 

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol guess you missed my clarification, calling out not you, not JC but the shit libs , you know the hypocrites who spew bs day in and day out 

I understand what your context is when you use that term, but let's can it from the subforum anyway. Thanks.

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Lol guess you missed my clarification, calling out not you, not JC but the shit libs , you know the hypocrites who spew bs day in and day out 

I didn’t miss it, I saw you clarified. All good man. Even if it was at me, it’s fine. I like Ant. I wouldn’t bust balls on someone I didn’t. 

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25 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya, no worries it’s all good. I understand/understood your point.  And I know you weren’t trying to steal anybody's snow(you’re gonna do great there and especially compared to us for sure anyway).  I was just shocked, as was Ginxy about the 84hr NAM.   But your point is well taken, and you’re right.  
 

Hopefully this was a good post….lol. 

Enjoy the mix

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21 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Hey it's all good. I've been making homemade chicken soup from bone broth for 3 hours and when I saw multiple posts weenieing me about the 84hr NAM I just got a little set off. Onto the goofus.

I love that.  That's the only way to make good soup.   Great healing powers.  And it was a good takedown too.  Glad you are feeling better.

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10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Watch out Ryan. I posted the same NAM image. lol

84 hr NAM only gets approved when warm. I remember the Feb 13 84 NAM posts getting brutalized by the same folks who just posted them. Also never forget Ryan's 84 hr NAM saying.  

Yes it's like all the others we all agree yet it's the fuking NAM. Need evidence go look at the Feb 13 thread and the Jan 27th 2011 threads lol. You guys...oh top analog now on Cips Jan 28th 2011 lol. 2 more days of runs to look at before we make a call.

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Wait … using the NAM at 72+ hrs 

seeming kinda risky … particularly considering it tends to carry in with NW bias at that range. 

Course it helps your case I suppose that the Euro isn’t altogether much different … 

I almost wonder if the fact that these NAM solutions more than less agree with euro (or vice versa) should be a red flag. If one has to be a pessimist about the storms and they’re going to have to have admit that the NAM is spot on ballz accurate at 84 hours lol

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Gfs gonna be worse initially.

Amazing consistency when models forecast a just inland track.

It does seem like it has been very consistent. But I bet people in eastern OH, WPA, and the southern tier of NY have been feeling like the models have been waffling a lot.

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4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Gfs gonna be worse initially.

Amazing consistency when models forecast a just inland track.

Idk, it seems slightly better to me. The trough seems slightly less negatively tilted due to slightly less n stream interaction. It's early though 

gfs_z500_vort_us_14.png

gfs_z500_vort_us_13.png

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14 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I bet the weenies reacted with violence.

I'll be in Truro for the weekend so I'm all for some damaging gusts Monday AM.

Love Truro, been going there for years. My parents built a house there in '82. I've seen the strongest winds of my life at that place. Great watching thunderstorms come over the bay

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