Henry's Weather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 NAM's clown range H5 track would appear to evolve more favorably than the 18z GFS's, as it seems to ride the coastline, but the lowlevels are torched on NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 17 minutes ago, Hoth said: If the high were staying put in Canada, I'd be a lot more bullish, but the fooker is diving off the coast. I find it hard to believe the coastal front thing Wiz is picturing can work out with that look, but we'll see. He was all over last week's event. CSI can get er done if GFS is right. Easy can dump 3 to 5 over Arctic remnants 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Enjoy 4” and rain. I will. Enjoy all rain out there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: One more note...this was not an issue in 12-16-07....the high was anchored NNW of Caribou, the it hit with an absolute wall of snow. Now, this antecedent airmass may be a bit more impressive, but usually dry air is fairly easily overcome in intense WAA. Its seems inconsistent to to harp on how proficient the lift looks with the WAA, and then cite the high retreating as a positive to help overcome dry air. Not sure I buy that, and view the retreating high as a negative. if the WAA is that impressive, then...dry air? Really? The high retreating would mean a wind flow that has less of a northerly or a northeasterly component which can be a source for advecting drier air down from the north. But I see your point regarding the impressiveness of the WAA and the one event which sticks out to me is Valentine's Day 2007...an event I'm sure Tip has a sorrow love story about. Sure the retreating high allows for stronger WAA (especially in the llvls) but this is where secondary development is important and there are the signals secondary development may happen in time to reinforce the colder air in the llvls. And that's what I'm looking at...and combining with the dynamics. The moisture inflow with this is going to be ridiculous but what really transpires will come down to some mesoscale aspects and that's what leads into your mentions of waiting until later in the weekend to fine tune. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, WinterWolf said: I will. Enjoy all rain out there. wolfsnarling.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Certainly an interesting forecast. Its nice to have a system not working out perfectly, and yet not have the thread go to crap and still have great discussion. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 These models with the strong low level easterly flow over SNE are just going to torch the BL eventually. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Very very interesting, and intriguing Wiz…I like the analysis you brought up. It’ll be very interesting how this all comes together. This is going to be a very fun storm to watch evolve. Some will get screwed and some will get nailed. This is where you just appreciate meteorology at its finest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I mean good luck with this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: The high retreating would mean a wind flow that has less of a northerly or a northeasterly component which can be a source for advecting drier air down from the north. But I see your point regarding the impressiveness of the WAA and the one event which sticks out to me is Valentine's Day 2007...an event I'm sure Tip has a sorrow love story about. Sure the retreating high allows for stronger WAA (especially in the llvls) but this is where secondary development is important and there are the signals secondary development may happen in time to reinforce the colder air in the llvls. And that's what I'm looking at...and combining with the dynamics. The moisture inflow with this is going to be ridiculous but what really transpires will come down to some mesoscale aspects and that's what leads into your mentions of waiting until later in the weekend to fine tune. ...which brings me back to 12-16-2007.....that did not happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: ...which brings me back to 12-16-2007.....that did not happen. Wish I remembered that event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: These models with the strong low level easterly flow over SNE are just going to torch the BL eventually. Berks gets smoked. I would JP outside of NY state East slopes of Berks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Well I think by 0z runs tomorrow night we'll have a much better idea. Not sure what this means for us but one thing I noticed with models is they have been trending wetter (as in more QPF) and stronger with this system as it dives into the Missouri and Tennessee Valley. They may get absolutely smoked in parts of KY/TN into the Foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: I mean good luck with this. Yeah, good luck with believing the hr84 NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Berks gets smoked. I would JP outside of NY state East slopes of Berks I could see a foot there, but jackpot even with mid levels west? Where did the H85 and H7 lows track in 12/14/1992? This is where getting the mid level to at least stretch out, and if not totally redevelop on approach, would be huge.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Berks gets smoked. I would JP outside of NY state East slopes of Berks E slopes the more north you go will be favored. Phin for the win....except that he's leaving. lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Well I think by 0z runs tomorrow night we'll have a much better idea. Not sure what this means for us but one thing I noticed with models is they have been trending wetter (as in more QPF) and stronger with this system as it dives into the Missouri and Tennessee Valley. They may get absolutely smoked in parts of KY/TN into the Foothills. QPF is often overdone east of mid level lows....but noteworthy trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, dendrite said: E slopes the more north you go will be favored. Phin for the win....except that he's leaving. lol Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, dendrite said: E slopes the more north you go will be favored. Phin for the win....except that he's leaving. lol Did you just post a 84 hr NAM for the first time? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: QPF is often overdone east of mid level lows....but noteworthy trend. Can't disagree with that. I guess my argument is that is the degree of lift and moisture ahead of them. But in this instance....precip may also be more banded in nature which is fairly common with very strong systems. And if this turns out to be the case...good luck to all forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I think this doesn’t phase as proficiently as forecasted too….many times it never does/is less proficient than forecast. Let’s see how that shapes up the next couple days? I could be wrong but I think phasing is most likely to be a modeled fail when it is portrayed To occur in higher latitudes close to our longitude , just much less wiggle room as well for us so when it’s later ..it’s a big game changer , when they are poised to phase in Ohio valley / mid Atlantic well before us, they do usually As even if they are late they still often max mid levels SW of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Did you just post a 84 hr NAM for the first time? Lol..and he weenies 78 blizzard for questioning it. That’s too funny. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: Yeah, good luck with believing the hr84 NAM. They all torch the BL at some point before the slot in SNE. But okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: I mean good luck with this. This hurts a lot less since the foot of fluff we got last week has already been largely annihilated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: E slopes the more north you go will be favored. Phin for the win....except that he's leaving. lol Yeah, but unlike in SNE it'll still be there when I get back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, WinterWolf said: Lol..and he weenies 78 blizzard for questioning it. That’s too funny. Hey weeniewolf. They all have it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 lol...tough to post in here when cold weenies are in denial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, dendrite said: lol...tough to post in here when cold weenies are in denial. You should have used my disclaimer feature. “All models have this torched BL but I am just using the nam as a quick example” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, dendrite said: Hey weeniewolf. They all have it. True today. What are the odds they all stay the same next 4 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, dendrite said: lol...tough to post in here when cold weenies are in denial. We're only a few weeks away from the May 1st thread!!!! 2 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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