STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Looks like a tick west on the 18z Euro Ensembles. Geezus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Looks like a tick west on the 18z Euro Ensembles. We toss? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Looks like a tick west on the 18z Euro Ensembles. The spread it had at 12z definitely consolidated back to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Modfan2 said: We toss? Probably too far west. Tough to get something over the Apps. Still, shows where the best upper level forcing is for the storm track. Well west. Going to be tough to get sig snows 6"+ south of 84/Pike 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Looks like a tick west on the 18z Euro Ensembles. I'm going out on a limb right now and saying that won't come close to verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 what's preventing this from redevelopment off the coast? trying to understand why normally these would transfer, is it SST, baroclinic zone? why exactly would this not transfer with the amount of energy out ahead of it, or is that the reason why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Because this event sucks Stop being a debby and look for any model that gives snow. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 17 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: Can a willing met explain the basic physics principles behind secondary LP development? And what that might mean for this situation, what with the H5 track so far west? Eager minds want to know The secondary development at the surface will help hold in the cold air…esp over the interior. However, if the H5 track remains really far west, the precip will still likely flip because the midlevel centers are going to be closer to the H5 forcing than the sfc. But even sfc secondary will help some as it will prob keep the R/S line closer to the coast early on before aloft warms. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Geezus Maybe get it right over Syracuse? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Because this event sucks What kind of answer is that . Just issue numbers . Who cares if you’re wrong . You said today you’re not a forecaster anymore for work 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, tavwtby said: what's preventing this from redevelopment off the coast? trying to understand why normally these would transfer, is it SST, baroclinic zone? why exactly would this not transfer with the amount of energy out ahead of it, or is that the reason why? No blocking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The secondary development at the surface will help hold in the cold air…esp over the interior. However, if the H5 track remains really far west, the precip will still likely flip because the midlevel centers are going to be closer to the H5 forcing than the sfc. But even sfc secondary will help some as it will prob keep the R/S line closer to the coast early on before aloft warms. I think I see. So at this point, since H5 appears so unfavorable, we are banking on surface redev to help keep winds from turning SE and washing away our WAA snows/also prolonging our WAA snows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 12 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Geezus You do realize that’s the weakening primary right? The secondary development that tracks along s coast helps interior stay in 30’s after thump . And that’s assuming that odd track there verified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The secondary development at the surface will help hold in the cold air…esp over the interior. However, if the H5 track remains really far west, the precip will still likely flip because the midlevel centers are going to be closer to the H5 forcing than the sfc. But even sfc secondary will help some as it will prob keep the R/S line closer to the coast early on before aloft warms. Also, is H5 considered upper level and H7-8 midlevel? Just for jargon-understanding purposes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, tavwtby said: what's preventing this from redevelopment off the coast? trying to understand why normally these would transfer, is it SST, baroclinic zone? why exactly would this not transfer with the amount of energy out ahead of it, or is that the reason why? Closed upper level low that amplifies and occludes west of here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: Also, is H5 considered upper level and H7-8 midlevel? Just for jargon-understanding purposes Yes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Ray’s map still looks reasonable at this time. I don’t think I would adjust much 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 13 minutes ago, MJO812 said: No blocking yeah, I wonder if this ocean storm somehow ends up phasing earlier if we'd have stauncher confluence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Ray’s map still looks reasonable at this time. I don’t think I would adjust much agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Amazing how the Euro has trended too the GFS each run . We may have new King Jan 11th 2011 thread you said the exact same thing. Lol we know who won that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 9 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Ray’s map still looks reasonable at this time. I don’t think I would adjust much I still think SW CT does much better than 2-4". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, 78Blizzard said: I still think SW CT does much better than 2-4". Hope you are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 11 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Ray’s map still looks reasonable at this time. I don’t think I would adjust much What map? 84 hrs out? Geezuz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Ginx snewx said: What map? 84 hrs out? Geezuz His first call. His blog makes sense right now Maybe some surprises are in store when that piece of energy gets better sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 This paragraph stands out in my mind While the lower levels of the atmosphere will be much slower to moderate over the deep interior on northeasterly winds, roughly beyond I 495, the mid levels of the atmosphere will still warm quickly on southwesterly winds aloft due to the fact that the mid level low pressure area will pass to the west across New York state. This will not only promote a mix and transition to sleet after several inches of snowfall, but drier air will also be advected in on the southwesterly flow, limiting the amount of overall precipitation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: I'm still on the train (and I guess speaking specifically about CT here) that we probably dry slot before any type of changeover occurs...or the amount of precip which falls during the change over process is very little. The thump with this is going to be very impressive here. The problem (which will limit accumulation potential) is snow ratios are likely going to be pretty junky. Although I'm not totally 100% sold on this. There's going to be some phenomenal lift with this. It may be too early for these details but noting that the 18z GFS bufkit for BDL actually pushes ratios upwards of 15:1. This is likely dependent on the degree of lift into the DGZ. If the snow is more wet in nature (which this has to be a consideration) then power outages could become a problem b/c I still think we would be seeing several-plus inches of snow. One other huge key with this system, especially when you're talking about interior New England is this system is likely going to occlude rather quickly and moisture inflow will essentially be choked off. This system could fall apart rapidly upon approach. 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: I could see a situation where there is rather large temperature gradient between the immediate coastline and just inland. The GFS anyways is trying really hard to get that secondary going. Just based off the 18z run I'm inclined to think it's boundary layer warmth is a bit overdone inland. The issue though is those dynamics coming off the ocean are pretty strong. Even if we were to see warmth at the sfc, I would think it's relatively shallow and by the time we see that occur...much of the damage (QPF) has already fallen. The amount of moisture which is going to be thrown into the cold air mass initially is going to be insane with those llvl dynamics. Same page....I hit on both of these aspects in my first call. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: This paragraph stands out in my mind While the lower levels of the atmosphere will be much slower to moderate over the deep interior on northeasterly winds, roughly beyond I 495, the mid levels of the atmosphere will still warm quickly on southwesterly winds aloft due to the fact that the mid level low pressure area will pass to the west across New York state. This will not only promote a mix and transition to sleet after several inches of snowfall, but drier air will also be advected in on the southwesterly flow, limiting the amount of overall precipitation. I'm thinking if the H5 evolution more or less holds we have maybe 3-4 hours of heavy precip, and then moderate precip for another couple 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: His first call. His blog makes sense right now Maybe some surprises are in store when that piece of energy gets better sampled. Ugh...hadn't seen this. Sorry to be redundant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: What map? 84 hrs out? Geezuz I always do a first call 72-84 hours out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Same page....I hit on both of these aspects in my first call. I could see a rather substantial coastal front with this and a subsequent band of extremely heavy snow. Something maybe upwards of 12-18''. Missed your first call so not sure what your thoughts on on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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