NorEastermass128 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, ineedsnow said: I nice little middle finger for extreme E MA. Sweet. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I'm still on the train (and I guess speaking specifically about CT here) that we probably dry slot before any type of changeover occurs...or the amount of precip which falls during the change over process is very little. The thump with this is going to be very impressive here. The problem (which will limit accumulation potential) is snow ratios are likely going to be pretty junky. Although I'm not totally 100% sold on this. There's going to be some phenomenal lift with this. It may be too early for these details but noting that the 18z GFS bufkit for BDL actually pushes ratios upwards of 15:1. This is likely dependent on the degree of lift into the DGZ. If the snow is more wet in nature (which this has to be a consideration) then power outages could become a problem b/c I still think we would be seeing several-plus inches of snow. One other huge key with this system, especially when you're talking about interior New England is this system is likely going to occlude rather quickly and moisture inflow will essentially be choked off. This system could fall apart rapidly upon approach. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Amazing how the Euro has trended too the GFS each run . We may have new King It still looks a lot worse than the GFS. It needs another solid bump east. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said: I nice little middle finger for extreme E MA. Sweet. We are still 3.5 days out on this, and it will take a move of only 50 miles to the east to change what that map is showing for E MA areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It still looks a lot worse than the GFS. It needs another solid bump east. Euro is really warm in the boundary layer. 2m temps at BDL up to +4c at 12z Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Euro is really warm in the boundary layer. 2m temps at BDL up to +4c at 12z Monday. Lots of desperation here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Euro is really warm in the boundary layer. 2m temps at BDL up to +4c at 12z Monday. unless things change I think most see a thump then change over to rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 9 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Euro is really warm in the boundary layer. 2m temps at BDL up to +4c at 12z Monday. Yeah we need that secondary development to slow the warming. The coast is prob a done deal but interior still has a lot of variance on what could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It still looks a lot worse than the GFS. It needs another solid bump east. Plus… It technically hasn’t “chased” GFS Kev keep in mind they run at the same time but we don’t get to see the euro until it’s a couple hours or more later. That might give the illusion of it running or chasing it rather but it really just kind of moving back-and-forth in tandem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It still looks a lot worse than the GFS. It needs another solid bump east. It keeps coming south east. Too much emphasis on Euro boundary layer and not enough on how it keeps moving east . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It keeps coming south east. Too much emphasis on Euro boundary layer and not enough on how it keeps moving east . The deformation area hasn’t moved over WNY. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Looks like maybe a couple of inches of slush that get washed away for me. Enjoy that jack in NNE! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It keeps coming south east. Too much emphasis on Euro boundary layer and not enough on how it keeps moving east . It didn’t really move though at 18z. I’ll be more intrigued if it bumps east at 00z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Amazing how the Euro has trended too the GFS each run . We may have new King Or call the GFS the Queen and let the king keep his crown for an event or two more before yanking it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah we need that secondary development to slow the warming. The coast is prob a done deal but interior still has a lot of variance on what could happen. I could see a situation where there is rather large temperature gradient between the immediate coastline and just inland. The GFS anyways is trying really hard to get that secondary going. Just based off the 18z run I'm inclined to think it's boundary layer warmth is a bit overdone inland. The issue though is those dynamics coming off the ocean are pretty strong. Even if we were to see warmth at the sfc, I would think it's relatively shallow and by the time we see that occur...much of the damage (QPF) has already fallen. The amount of moisture which is going to be thrown into the cold air mass initially is going to be insane with those llvl dynamics. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 looks like I'll be having a fun trip from WV to GA on Sunday morning, local calling for a foot where I'm staying, and about 4" where I'm going...3 days to continue SE trend and at least hug instead of cut and change over, is today's system stopping to eastward progression of sundays system, which is why it's been showing so far west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: The deformation area hasn’t moved over WNY. That’s a done deal . No one in our area is getting that unless we see 100 mile shift which isn’t likely. This is just a swfe on roids for most of NE. The key is ti get the secondary to track over the far outer Cape which is Climo for Jan and seems highly likely . As long as that happens .. it’s a net gainer even for BOS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 Hey George … it’s a little concerning that the NAVGEM has a 979mb low in Cape Cod Bay … what’s your opinion the impact - 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Skip the 18z Euro, Wait on the 0z for any changes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 deform band from poconos up to Concord? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah we need that secondary development to slow the warming. The coast is prob a done deal but interior still has a lot of variance on what could happen. For sure. At least for my backyard seems like we're going to have a really hard time preventing the torch as the high retreats and wind cranks out of the E/SE. Farther north up toward the Pike I think there's definitely more room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That’s a done deal . No one in our area is getting that unless we see 100 mile shift which isn’t likely. This is just a swfe on roids for most of NE. The key is ti get the secondary to track over the far outer Cape which is Climo for Jan and seems highly likely . As long as that happens .. it’s a net gainer even for BOS SWFE. With a banana high to Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: SWFE. With a banana high to Bermuda. You have struggled immensely with this. And never actually issuing a forecast or amounts. Why can’t you just put numbers out? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: For sure. At least for my backyard seems like we're going to have a really hard time preventing the torch as the high retreats and wind cranks out of the E/SE. Farther north up toward the Pike I think there's definitely more room. You don't think the majority of our QPF would come as snow? I'm still a bit torn on how much we torch inland but looks like much of the QPF is snow then we change over...and by that point we may already be beginning to dry slot? I know it's too far out too really dig into bufkit but this was encouraging to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, tavwtby said: deform band from poconos up to Concord? Maybe Concord, NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Can a willing met explain the basic physics principles behind secondary LP development? And what that might mean for this situation, what with the H5 track so far west? Eager minds want to know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 53 minutes ago, toller65 said: I remember they had to dig out the lift stations because the chairs were dragging Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 I like how whatever model shows the most Debbie Downer abysmal sore butt solution gets apparently full proxy over the tone and tenor of spirit in this online paragon of functionality .. 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You have struggled immensely with this. And never actually issuing a forecast or amounts. Why can’t you just put numbers out? Because this event sucks 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Looks like a tick west on the 18z Euro Ensembles. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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