40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: What did Metheun have in Dec 92? I had around 20" in Wilmington...probably like 15" up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I had around 20" in Wilmington...probably like 15" up here. Heavy , wet and extended power loss ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Heavy , wet and extended power loss ? I didn't lose power, but it was cement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 This seems like it moves along....maybe that changes, but right now...I don't view this as a protracted, deep layer east fetch like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This seems like it moves along....maybe that changes, but right now...I don't view this as a protracted, deep layer east fetch like that. Agreed...more progressive. It does have very mature conveyor belts with deep inflow, but I don't see this as being a 30+ hour job. Prob 12-15. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, Cyclone-68 said: I do not vouch for the veracity if this, but a friend of a friend posted something on Facebook to the effect of this being a “once in 50 year storm”? Obviously I asked my friend if she could send me the link where she read this Social media, idiot driven hype storm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Agreed...more progressive. It does have very mature conveyor belts with deep inflow, but I don't see this as being a 30+ hour job. Prob 12-15. That's good news for the CTRV...extended deep layer east fetch there is no bueno due to downslope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 10 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: I do not vouch for the veracity if this, but a friend of a friend apparently posted something on Facebook to the effect of this being a “once in 50 year storm”? Obviously I asked my friend if she could send me the link where she read this It means nothing but my grandpa was telling me we are gonna get a huge snowstorm this year. He’s old and definitely just making things up, but I can hope he’s right, right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, NotSureWeather said: It means nothing but my grandpa was telling me we are gonna get a huge snowstorm this year. He’s old and definitely just making things up, but I can hope he’s right, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said: It’s early, but WNE can probably start drooling soon. The TBLIZZ of the North 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Have you guys ever heard of the farmer's almanac? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 For now - sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 EPS is a Jeff to Dendrite to Berkshires jack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: For now - sure Yea, it could slow in future runs...I mentioned that. Just speaking as of this suite. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That's good news for the CTRV...extended deep layer east fetch there is no bueno due to downslope. Laughed at this headline this afternoon figured you would buy stock in those companies 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Social media, idiot driven hype storm. Deleted. I’ll do better next time I promise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 We'd all take drugs if we could have gotten rid of the December RNA. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 9 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said: It means nothing but my grandpa was telling me we are gonna get a huge snowstorm this year. He’s old and definitely just making things up, but I can hope he’s right, right? Any beer involved? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 Also... because of this system's total history, by the time it is abeam of our latitude is going to be very large, relative to these NJ modeler events. If we see a closed consensus on an ensemble mean over the BM, this sort of system probably deforms out over the Capital District of eastern NY. ALSO, 5.5 really .. not D6 ... by virtue of size and totality, it's actually D4 down in the TV ... It's a long curvi-linear event, swooping deeply from the plains to capture/phase, then charge up the coast... Size starts to close the gap on lead time in that sense --> increased confidence by weight in the flow... I also would not "plan" so much for a fast mover, despite current appeal in that regard. Firstly, its size means that fast is relative, because you could take 18 hours to traverse the quadrants by virtue of space alone. Also, given to the depth of the system, and the still uncertain influence from possible -NAO flex, at 5 days lead that's plenty of time for the NAO to factor in future runs. Having the heights relaxed over Miami ( general metric...) prior to this whole ordeal, helps the slowing cause. This system, as impressive as its emerged ( rather abruptly ...even I thought it might take a day or so of cycles when I first posted about this this morning - I'm a bit awed at how quickly this exploded into reasonable consensus... ), still has an upside to it, frankly. For storm enthusiasts, you like where this sets at D5/6 lead: it has upside while already being impressive - that's a bit different, when playing the odds, then seeing perfection on a D8 chart. Then knowing it hast to survive probability gauntlet of buck-shot fractals bullets. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Also... because of this system's total history, by the time it is abeam of our latitude is going to be very large, relative to these NJ modeler events. If we see a closed consensus on an ensemble mean over the BM, this sort of system probably deforms out over the Capital District of eastern NY. ALSO, 5.5 really .. not D6 ... by virtue of size and totality, it's actually D4 in down in the TV ... It's a long curvi-linear events, swooping deeply from the plains to capture/phase, then charge up the coast... I also would not "plan" so much for a fast mover, despite current appeal in that regard. Firstly, its size means that fast is relative, because you could take 18 hours to traverse the quadrants by virtue of space alone. Also, given to the depth of the system, and the still uncertain influence from possible -NAO flex, at 5 days lead that's plenty of time for the NAO to factor in future runs. This system, as impressive as its emerged ( rather abruptly ...even I thought it might take a day or so of cycles when I first posted about this this morning - I'm a bit awed at quickly this exploded into reasonable consensus... ), still has an upside to it, frankly. For storm enthusiasts, you like where this sets at D5/6 lead: it has upside while already being impressive - that's a bit different, when playing the odds, then seeing perfection on a D8 chart. Then knowing it hast to survive probability gauntlet of buck-shot fractals bullets. You and Steve have been all over this. Great job at advanced leads. I think I had the right idea in the aggregate this season, but rushed everything by a couple of weeks. First KU window from early Novie was last week of December and first week of January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Agreed...more progressive. It does have very mature conveyor belts with deep inflow, but I don't see this as being a 30+ hour job. Prob 12-15. Enough time to inflict a lot of with the way this storms is maturing as it gets here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 43 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said: It means nothing but my grandpa was telling me we are gonna get a huge snowstorm this year. He’s old and definitely just making things up, but I can hope he’s right, right? About a month out...I predicted my first measurable snowfall of this year to within 1 day. Pleased with my now proven long range forecasting abilities, I immediately decided to forecast a 36" blizzard for CT on January 18. You're welcome CT posters. 1 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Any beer involved? Nah he’s sober for like 30 years or something, but he used to be wild. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Agreed...more progressive. It does have very mature conveyor belts with deep inflow, but I don't see this as being a 30+ hour job. Prob 12-15. Better than most. Something to watch in any case--and perhaps to make travel plans to Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 18 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Better than most. Something to watch in any case--and perhaps to make travel plans to Maine. Why? I'm told it's rain there too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Confidence high on a storm on the EPS, but plenty of spread....but not bad for D6. I noted that in my AFD this morning. Ensembles show spread in two ways, in time and in position. Usually you’ll see those 24 hour QPF lines for every member with a random scattering of events throughout time. However the ensembles right now are all showing the same time window for precip. The ones that don’t are because they are out to sea, not because they don’t think they’ll be a storm. It’s a pretty strong signal, especially this far out. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 54 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: The TBLIZZ of the North You think so? I was bullish on this past one. I just have a hard time getting excited for a wound up system here on Cape Ann. SST is near 50. Any easterly component off the water bumps up the temp. We need some frigid coastals or SWFEs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 15 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Why? I'm told it's rain there too Who's said it's going to be rain? We don't know where this things going to go at this point. I'm just keeping my options open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Who's said it's going to be rain? We don't know where this things going to go at this point. I'm just keeping my options open. The usual suspect. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Rains to Maines 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Who's said it's going to be rain? We don't know where this things going to go at this point. I'm just keeping my options open. Who do you think? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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