Monitoring a potential important TV to East Coastal storm: Jan 17

[ORH_wxman]

12/26-27/12 was a pretty good storm for interior SNE....I think I had 7" with a bunch of IP/ZR in that one. A bit further NW had over a foot.

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Much obliged if you want to edit that one word to the opposite.........

The era of that kind of positive bust is probably behind us ... (at some point we have to beginning weighting the AI, particularly < 4.5 days)

but man, would now ever be a good time for that!  Have it bump from TTN to the arm of the Cape the day before.  Talking 4" --> PL/cold rain vs 4" + 18"

I mean there's two types of positive bust.  There's the utter blind side.  But, then there's the arrogant fixation by the conceit of technology and belief, going straight to hell..   haha.  

An example of that would be the forecast for a minoring dust in obscurity that was set to describe December 23 1997.   The then, "ETA" was the go-to premiere meso model - possibly because it was the only meso model. Oh wait...or right, I think the NGM was around then still.

Anyway, in the evening of that day, digging out of 18" of snow ... 90% of which fell in 3.5 hours, said dust verified as a comet impact in history.  I mean, literally ... no headlines, to society stoppage in 6 hours of wtf-titude.   making me laugh thinking back.. oy.  Yeah, probably the tech is to the point where that sort of thing is a thing of the past.

[Chrisrotary12]

You people need to spend less time on the Miller A v B debate. A storm is a storm and this one wants to track over our heads.

[bristolri_wx]

Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

You people need to spend less time on the Miller A v B debate. A storm is a storm and this one wants to track over our heads.

So where else can we discuss the scientific characteristics of this specific storm? LOL… I’m enjoying the discussion !

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

You people need to spend less time on the Miller A v B debate. A storm is a storm and this one wants to track over our heads.

It is definitely a Miller A as currently modeled if we're going by the original definitions from Miller et al 1946. If this started tracking into the TN Valley or OH Valley with a clear secondary redevelopment, then we could revisit, but yeah, not really worth the energy debating it at the moment.

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

You people need to spend less time on the Miller A v B debate. A storm is a storm and this one wants to track over our heads.

This ones tracking right across your screen,

.........................................................................................................

[klw]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS spread actually increased from 06z which is weird when you get closer.

 

 

Was it the EPS which "pulsed" like that with the last storm or the OP?

[ariof]

21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The era of that kind of positive bust is probably behind us ... (at some point we have to beginning weighting the AI, particularly < 4.5 days)

but man, would now ever be a good time for that!  Have it bump from TTN to the arm of the Cape the day before.  Talking 4" --> PL/cold rain vs 4" + 18"

I mean there's two types of positive bust.  There's the utter blind side.  But, then there's the arrogant fixation by the conceit of technology and belief, going straight to hell..   haha.  

An example of that would be the forecast for a minoring dust in obscurity that was set to describe December 23 1997.   The then, "ETA" was the go-to premiere meso model - possibly because it was the only meso model. Oh wait...or right, I think the NGM was around then still.

Anyway, in the evening of that day, digging out of 18" of snow ... 90% of which fell in 3.5 hours, said dust verified as a comet impact in history.  I mean, literally ... no headlines, to society stoppage in 6 hours of wtf-titude.   making me laugh thinking back.. oy.  Yeah, probably the tech is to the point where that sort of thing is a thing of the past.

IIRC we walked out of middle school wondering where the snow had come from. No one as prepared. And this was only a few months after April when the mets had called for a changeover between 1600 and 1800 and it changed at 1030.

[JC-CT]

NAM would probably track over buffalo

[DFRI]

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, ariof said:

IIRC we walked out of middle school wondering where the snow had come from. No one as prepared. And this was only a few months after April when the mets had called for a changeover between 1600 and 1800 and it changed at 1030.

April Fools Storm 1997 was a bit of a bust ( positive) but it was actually pretty well sniffed out too.

I remember Harvey on air motioning some 5 days prior while saying, " should this feature pass under our latitude ..."

Well, guess what happened.   But, Barry Burbank the day before was calling for 6-12"  - which is well above climate as it is, anyway. 

Yeah... I think 30" is of blue cake is probably a bit more than most expected, particularly when metro west of Boston reported something like 6 hours of lightning and thunder with it.   So have to technically call that a positive bust - but I was up at UMass still and there was back office discussion about the ominous look of that mo-fo'

[ariof]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

April Fools Storm 1997 was a bit of a bust ( positive) but it was actually pretty well sniffed out too.

I remember Harvey on air motioning some 5 days prior while saying, " should this feature pass under our latitude ..."

Well, guess what happened.   But, Barry Burbank the day before was calling for 6-12"  - which is well above climate as it is, anyway. 

Yeah... I think 30" is of blue cake is probably a bit more than most expected, particularly when metro west of Boston reported something like 6 hours of lightning and thunder with it.   So have to technically call that a positive bust - but I was up at UMass still and there was back office discussion about the ominous look of that mo-fo'

I think that was more of a "no one believes this" but yes it was forecast several days out. The numbers kept going up, I too remember 6-12" the night before (afternoon high of 63) and 10-14" the morning of. I think it took some time to change over on the coast, KBOS only reported 3" on the 31st but MQE had 15". Yeah climo would not suggest 2'+ that time of year.

If it happened today this site would mostly be posts about sun angle.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

April Fools Storm 1997 was a bit of a bust ( positive) but it was actually pretty well sniffed out too.

I remember Harvey on air motioning some 5 days prior while saying, " should this feature pass under our latitude ..."

Well, guess what happened.   But, Barry Burbank the day before was calling for 6-12"  - which is well above climate as it is, anyway. 

Yeah... I think 30" is of blue cake is probably a bit more than most expected, particularly when metro west of Boston reported something like 6 hours of lightning and thunder with it.   So have to technically call that a positive bust - but I was up at UMass still and there was back office discussion about the ominous look of that mo-fo'

That was one of the most epic positive busts in recent memory. I was in Hyde Park (part of Boston) with hrs of white out TSSN. 6-12" turned into 30-36". Just epic.

[HoarfrostHubb]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That was one of the most epic positive busts in recent memory. I was in Hyde Park (part of Boston) with hrs of white out TSSN. 6-12" turned into 30-36". Just epic.

Octobomb too.   Will and his fooking kooks

[klw]

46 minutes ago, dryslot said:

This ones tracking right across your screen,

.........................................................................................................

Some upgraded graphics for you to use:

 

 

[powderfreak]

I like these EPS snow probability maps for seeing where the model thinks the mid-level deformation banding will be and then the low level jet warm conveyor belt snow into the first major barriers off the Atlantic (Berks/SVT/Monadnocks/Whites).

[40/70 Benchmark]

Final Call on Sunday..

First Call:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/01/first-call-for-major-mess-likely-tuesday.html

 

 

[dendrite]

Just now, powderfreak said:

I like these EPS snow probability maps for seeing where the model thinks the mid-level deformation banding will be and then the low level jet warm conveyor belt snow into the first major barriers off the Atlantic (Berks/SVT/Monadnocks/Whites).

Yeah as modeled right now it's a Phin jack (New Eng)...but yeah many days to go. This is a great setup for him...moist E flow into the cold dome and then crashing against that E slope terrain.

[OceanStWx]

Really amazing how the 18z NAM gives the double freedom tickets to Indiana. It manages to snow at LOT and TOL and somehow nowhere in the state in between.

[JC-CT]

I think I've seen enough

[CT Rain]

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

I think I've seen enough

See you Monday night 

[Henry's Weather]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I think I've seen enough

yeah, not wasting time on a storm which most guidance has tracking over ALB. If it becomes a positive surprise, yay

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Henry&#x27;s Weather said:

yeah, not wasting time on a storm which most guidance has tracking over ALB. If it becomes a positive surprise, yay

Unfortunately, Henry's weather looks pretty boring on Monday.

[Sugarloaf1989]

22 minutes ago, ariof said:

I think that was more of a "no one believes this" but yes it was forecast several days out. The numbers kept going up, I too remember 6-12" the night before (afternoon high of 63) and 10-14" the morning of. I think it took some time to change over on the coast, KBOS only reported 3" on the 31st but MQE had 15". Yeah climo would not suggest 2'+ that time of year.

If it happened today this site would mostly be posts about sun angle.

Sugarloaf 4/17/07 snow has no problem accumulating with a high sun angle if it snows hard enough. 

[PhineasC]

14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah as modeled right now it's a Phin jack (New Eng)...but yeah many days to go. This is a great setup for him...moist E flow into the cold dome and then crashing against that E slope terrain.

I like this post. 

[ineedsnow]

4 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Sugarloaf 4/17/07 snow has no problem accumulating with a high sun angle if it snows hard enough. 

we had a good snowstorm here last year in mid April it happens  I love this pic though  

[Henry's Weather]

I mean, I'd be lying to myself if the GEFS doesn't keep me interested in the threat, but as of now, it's a far eastern outlier. Plus, doesn't GFS/GEFS have a progressive bias?

[Henry's Weather]

Oh well. Pattern is long. I remember how painful the first storm of March 2018 was because I was delusionally hopeful for evaporative cooling.  A few days later, we got a foot and a half, bookended by two half-footers.

[eduggs]

1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

You people need to spend less time on the Miller A v B debate. A storm is a storm and this one wants to track over our heads.

Yup. Miller classification is an oversimplified binary classification system from the 1940s. There's no deep meaning behind it. This was before the satellite era. Meteorological analysis is much more sophisticated these days (outside this forum).