Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Hips swinging to the right so hard it pushes it east? Hall of Fame post will become a Weenie HOF post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You can see the isobars kink and bulge SE of LI like DIT when he see's a DILF at the front steps of the electric blue. Or the times I saw you and your Subaru in the lot heading in 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You can see the isobars kink and bulge SE of LI like DIT when he see's a DILF at the front steps of the electric blue. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yep....how many times over the years (even in biggies like Feb 2013) did the models over-phase the streams? We've seen plenty of times where the southern ends up a little faster and the phase happens later than originally modeled. Doesn't mean it will happen this time, but it's a more realistic scenario than hoping for the northern stream to come in weaker....in my experience, the northern stream will probably come in stronger when sampled. Yeah...as strong as that southern system is the northern stream looks just as potent. It's like 2 huge planets on the same thread of space-time and when they get close enough they just want to go binary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Or the times I saw you and your Subaru in the lot heading in I have a Ford baby, we American. But lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I would say literally like 8/10 times phasing is over modeled, question is by how much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That dude in Jackson NH may get crushed. @jculligan East flow is good for him for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would say literally like 8/10 times phasing is over modeled, question is by how much. Yup. Especially in a progressive flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: Still feel a moderate event is possible for most of SNE. If just one of those questionable parameters are off a bit, strength of shortwaves, timing, high to the north, this changes the outcome obviously. But Is this the monster it was touted a few days ago…no. It’s become(at least currently) much more tame. When was it touted a monster? I dunno - the thread was headlined with these sentiments, "Confidence grows for a moderate to major, low latitude transferring Miller B/ Miller A hybrid then gets foisted up the coast as a "hook low" ... *However* with such a high upside I feel monitoring is necessary.. ... confidence remains less than medium. It's an important storm - how much impact and where, TBD. " Not sure that confers 'monster' but whatever. Frankly nothing's really changed LOL... Think about it, I mean... doesn't that rather aptly describe where we are at right now, still at 96 to 108 hours lead? It's like NBA basketball games... Watch the first 5 minutes and the last 5 minutes - that's all one needs. 'Course, that takes the d-drip journey away, just sayn'. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Hall of Fame post will become a Weenie HOF post ?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 We should have consensus by 0Z Saturday (tomorrow night) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: ?? "68 pages for a storm going to Cooperstown" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: "68 pages for a storm going to Cooperstown" That was a joke, I said not a forecast lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 He’s not a forecaster anymore 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: When was it touted a monster? I dunno - the thread was headlined with these sentiments, "Confidence grows for a moderate to major, low latitude transferring Miller B/ Miller A hybrid then gets foisted up the coast as a "hook low" ... *However* with such a high upside I feel monitoring is necessary.. ... confidence remains less than medium. It's an important storm - how much impact and where, TBD. " Not sure that confers 'monster' but whatever. Frankly nothing's really changed LOL... Think about it, I mean... doesn't that rather aptly describe where we are at right now, still at 96 to 108 hours lead? It's like NBA basketball games... What the first 5 minutes and the last 5 minutes - that's all one needs. 'Course, that takes the d-drip journey away, just sayn'. I don’t know….you had things in there that this had been showing up out in the distance like 3/93 1/96 etc etc…. And Those were monsters. And that the precip field on this thing is gonna be so Expansive, that it could start quite a bit earlier than progged due to the size of the precip shield. That sounds like a monster to me. But maybe I got the wrong idea from your ideas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Fairly close to 6z. If anything nrn stream is stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Maybe a hair west from 06z but pretty much the same on the 12z EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's a pretty good thump in SNE too away from the water. My forecast from 3 days ago. Yet I got called Tblizz of the north. (No offense to Tblizz) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That was a joke, I said not a forecast lol. how dare you say something people don't want to hear 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMainer Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 43 minutes ago, dryslot said: Phinn will endorse this run. 44 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Big run for NNE. Just need 6 inches in north central Maine net of any rain and I'm happy since it'll be time to start the groomer! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 This isn’t a great look at the moment but it’s a lot better than it looked yesterday. I see 3 lows, 1 inland low 1 to the south west and most importantly, a 996 mb low to the southeast! I don’t remember seeing that yesterday, that’s exactly what I was hoping to see, as it looks like the main low running inland is all but inevitable. In my opinion this puts even eastern areas in the game for big snows even if it does eventually change over to a mix then rain. I love seeing this, it looks like the storm is evolving into a Miller B, if we can get that southern low to strengthen faster and take over quicker, this gets really interesting. We can already see that it is snowing east of the primary in central NY. The Berkshires are way east of the main low, yet it’s still snowing. That tells me the low to the southeast is already having a major influence on the rain snow line. Whether it’s all snow, rain, or a mix, this is going to be a big storm and someone, likely NW areas and areas with elevation are going to get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 EPS spread actually increased from 06z which is weird when you get closer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, TheMainer said: Just need 6 inches in north central Maine net of any rain and I'm happy since it'll be time to start the groomer! Looks good up there right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcostell Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Disclaimer: "asking for a friend"... Longtime mostly lurker will be in Whiteface Mountain area Sunday- Thursday if "my friend" chooses to drive up. We are low on snowpack there for sure. Safe to say that area of northern "Dacks is in a good spot for 6-12", given variables? Appreciate learned opinions or heckling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS spread actually increased from 06z which is weird when you get closer. Could it be signaling stronger secondary low development after the initial low cuts to our west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, George001 said: Could it be signaling stronger secondary low development after the initial low cuts to our west? probably 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS spread actually increased from 06z which is weird when you get closer. Almost looks to be making two camps, Those ones to the west in PA and a cluster over western LI and east. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 11 minutes ago, forkyfork said: how dare you say something people don't want to hear we will mark you down for cooperstown as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 21 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I don’t know….you had things in there that this had been showing up out in the distance like 3/93 1/96 etc etc…. And Those were monsters. And that the precip field on this thing is gonna be so Expansive, that it could start quite a bit earlier than progged due to the size of the precip shield. That sounds like a monster to me. But maybe I got the wrong idea from your ideas? Yeah ...the reference to those dates wasn't in deference/context that way - ..interesting interpretation, tho - It was written in black and white 'medium to major,' first, in bold, and that impact was 'TBD' The references to those dates was not a context for assigning to this one, those as analogs. No - Like I said.. .whatever - I think the bigger aspect of interest is that those sentiments originally put forth are still where we are at some 70 page later - that's funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 40 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: When was it touted a monster? I dunno - the thread was headlined with these sentiments, "Confidence grows for a moderate to major, low latitude transferring Miller B/ Miller A hybrid then gets foisted up the coast as a "hook low" ... *However* with such a high upside I feel monitoring is necessary.. ... confidence remains less than medium. It's an important storm - how much impact and where, TBD. " Not sure that confers 'monster' but whatever. Frankly nothing's really changed LOL... Think about it, I mean... doesn't that rather aptly describe where we are at right now, still at 96 to 108 hours lead? It's like NBA basketball games... What the first 5 minutes and the last 5 minutes - that's all one needs. 'Course, that takes the d-drip journey away, just sayn'. Too many folks are so busy comparing the minor nuisances of every 6-hour model run that they don't take the time to read and comprehend a very clear-cut statement! Nothing in your original headline & post suggested you were screaming "here comes the monster"... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now