40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Don't worry about a thing.... Don't worry be ginxy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'll say this again, I am dumbfounded how that s/w dives south with a ridge folding behind it, yet turns the corner like one of those zero degree turn Troy-built lawnmowers. WTF. So, maybe that’s not exactly the way it will play out. If(the model) doesn’t make sense…something might be amiss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Northern stream shortwave is way stronger this run...so that is going to wipe out any advantage I think in the northeast. Strong northern stream just send this due north from what we know in past runs. Too much whack-a-mole with this system. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Definitely going to be east of the 0z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: So, maybe that’s not exactly the way it will play out. It(the model) doesn’t make sense…something might be amiss? No it's possible given the physics like JC said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Northern stream shortwave is way stronger this run...so that is going to wipe out any advantage I think in the northeast. Strong northern stream just send this due north from what we know in past runs. Too much whack-a-mole with this system. Yeah that's been the 12z trend with the northern stream. However, isn't that the result of a combination of two shortwaves that are currently still twirling about in the middle of the pacific? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Northern stream shortwave is way stronger this run...so that is going to wipe out any advantage I think in the northeast. Strong northern stream just send this due north from what we know in past runs. Too much whack-a-mole with this system. 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Definitely going to be east of the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, JC-CT said: Yeah that's been the 12z trend with the northern stream. However, isn't that the result of a combination of two shortwaves that are currently still twirling about in the middle of the pacific? Yeah the northern shortwave is the last one to come on shore, so hopefully the northeast height trend is real and the northern stream shortwave trend is spurious....but I'm not holding my breath. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, ineedsnow said: there are competing things happening for sure, as will has already pointed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, ineedsnow said: I'm comparing to 06z....00z was really amped, and I agree it will be east of 00z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Once i got out past where hr 90 had it on the 06z run, I picked up the 0z run the rest of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Once i got out past where hr 90 had it on the 06z run, I picked up the 0z run the rest of the way. The bottom line is that whenever it feels as though a positive development is emerging with respect to this system, wait for the catch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'll say this again, I am dumbfounded how that s/w dives south with a ridge folding behind it, yet turns the corner like one of those zero degree turn Troy-built lawnmowers. WTF. I think one realistic hope on this system is that the southern stream ends up more progressive as we get closer....that's actually a real thing that happens on model guidance a decent amount. I don't have much hope for the northern stream to help us coming in weaker, but a more progressive southern stream seems plausible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'll say this again, I am dumbfounded how that s/w dives south with a ridge folding behind it, yet turns the corner like one of those zero degree turn Troy-built lawnmowers. WTF. Funny you mentioned this dude... I have been scratching my head over this ever since it started doing that about 10 minutes after we made this f'n thread. The models insistence with that behavior, jesus... it's like there's some sort of atmospheric magnet with neutron star Gaussian pull, anchored over Utica NY. This storm could be on Mars, the models would find a way to put it west of Albany. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Better solution on euro. At least it keeps it white in the mountains, well anything west of the Bigelow range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Big run for NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Phinn will endorse this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I think one realistic hope on this system is that the southern stream ends up more progressive as we get closer....that's actually a real thing that happens on model guidance a decent amount. I don't have much hope for the northern stream to help us coming in weaker, but a more progressive southern stream seems plausible. Yeah...that's where I've been leaning. Create as much space from the trailing northern streamer that you can before it dives in and they interact. It's going to hook northward eventually...gotta gain as much longitude as we can before it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Nicer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 It's a pretty good thump in SNE too away from the water. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I think one realistic hope on this system is that the southern stream ends up more progressive as we get closer....that's actually a real thing that happens on model guidance a decent amount. I don't have much hope for the northern stream to help us coming in weaker, but a more progressive southern stream seems plausible. 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Funny you mentioned this dude... I have been scratching my head over this ever since it started doing that about 10 minutes after we made this f'n thread. The models insistence with that behavior, jesus... it's like there's some sort of atmospheric magnet with neutron star Gaussian pull, anchored over Utica NY. This storm could be on Mars, the models would find a way to put it west of Albany. I was thinking that too regarding the srn vort...but sometimes the convection pumps the heights up too. I guess we can hope it's more progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Only a 200 mile shift east that's all 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Thump, slot, drizzle fo shizzle. Big deform BUF to ART. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 That dude in Jackson NH may get crushed. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 You can see the isobars kink and bulge SE of LI like DIT when he see's a DILF at the front steps of the electric blue. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Only a 200 mile shift east that's all Hips swinging to the right so hard it pushes it east? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Yeah...that's where I've been leaning. Create as much space from the trailing northern streamer that you can before it dives in and they interact. It's going to hook northward eventually...gotta gain as much longitude as we can before it does. Yep....how many times over the years (even in biggies like Feb 2013) did the models over-phase the streams? We've seen plenty of times where the southern ends up a little faster and the phase happens later than originally modeled. Doesn't mean it will happen this time, but it's a more realistic scenario than hoping for the northern stream to come in weaker....in my experience, the northern stream will probably come in stronger when sampled. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: I was thinking that too regarding the srn vort...but sometimes the convection pumps the heights up too. I guess we can hope it's more progressive. We know how convection likes to reek havoc, Most of the time you get porked or i do anyways. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yep....how many times over the years (even in biggies like Feb 2013) did the models over-phase the streams? We've seen plenty of times where the southern ends up a little faster and the phase happens later than originally modeled. Doesn't mean it will happen this time, but it's a more realistic scenario than hoping for the northern stream to come in weaker....in my experience, the northern stream will probably come in stronger when sampled. I agree wholesale with this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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