40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Only reason I'd still hold out for a bigger solution is that we are still 96h from go time...if we were 72 then I'd be resigned to an Albany or CT River track. But outside of the GFS, there isn't much support for something more favorable. Pending the Euro obviously, but I do not expect it to improve much, if at all, based on other 12z globals. IF Euro comes in flatter and ensembles also show that trend, then I think there is renewed life in this. I could easily see the SLP end up near the upper cape, but that doesn't change the fact that the mechanics to drive a very heavy snowfall are just not present, barring major wholesale changes that seem very unlikely at this lead. Not trying to be a debbie, but that is how I see it...and yes, my frustration with this season is oozing out into my posts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Lets get H5 to close off in Houston next time, to make for more fun forecasts. You guys mock me about LBSW, but the number one way to c0ck block your self from a biggie is having H5 close off a decade before it reaches you....it just introduces an orgy of limiting factors. Actually ... common function of vernacular aside, I don't ... because at a glance, LBSW looks like LGBTQ to me, and may as well be a derivative of the movement for all I know because I don't know what what the former means - We make up abbreviations in here that requires a bit of fuller on-board life-saddling commitment to keep track of - I'm not a candidate for linguist. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Bob thinks everyone who disagrees with him is wishcasting. Yea maybe put disclaimers on so the righteous have no ammo The mods should implement a disclaimer button with a couple options. It could clean up some of the unnecessary and exhausting defending imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 50 minutes ago, MarkO said: Not buying it stays nearly all snow in central NH with a track nearly up the CT river valley. sure it does. 6-8 hour thump and then the warming aloft coincides with the dry slot. Think SWFE coming from the south into a very cold antecedent airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Believe me, if I saw something that changed my mind, I would derobe....hell, I was pretty optimistic as recently as last night, but I think we are running out of time to recapture the potential that this system once possesed for this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I could easily see the SLP end up near the upper cape, but that doesn't change the fact that the mechanics to drive a very heavy snowfall are just not present, barring major wholesale changes that seem very unlikely at this lead. Not trying to be a debbie, but that is how I see it...and yes, my frustration with this season is oozing out into my posts. Take your 6 and drizzle and run lock that up in Arctic air and enjoy the clipper of 2 to 4 then await the next big dog. Active Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Bob thinks everyone who disagrees with him is wishcasting. Yea maybe put disclaimers on so the righteous have no ammo Nope. I just think people are only looking for the snowiest/coldest solution without taking into account the polar opposite solution. This storm looks like a pile of dung E of the River. Get up into the Berks, C/NNE and have at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, JC-CT said: who is that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Actually ... common function of vernacular aside, I don't ... because at a glance, LBSW looks like LGBTQ to me, and may as well be a derivative of the movement for all I know because I don't know what what the former means - We make up abbreviations in here that requires a bit of fuller on-board life-saddling commitment to keep track of - I'm not a candidate for linguist. LOL Load Blown Southwest...just a raunchy vernacular for occlusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Nope. I just think people are only looking for the snowiest/coldest solution without taking into account the polar opposite solution. This storm looks like a pile of dung E of the River. Get up into the Berks, C/NNE and have at it. New here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I could easily see the SLP end up near the upper cape, but that doesn't change the fact that the mechanics to drive a very heavy snowfall are just not present, barring major wholesale changes that seem very unlikely at this lead. Not trying to be a debbie, but that is how I see it...and yes, my frustration with this season is oozing out into my posts. I don't think there's much hope for a major snowfall, but there's still the difference between like 8-12" and 2-5" on the table which is a pretty large impact from a sensible wx standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Still feel a moderate event is possible for most of SNE. If just one of those questionable parameters are off a bit, strength of shortwaves, timing, high to the north, this changes the outcome obviously. But Is this the monster it was touted a few days ago…no. It’s become(at least currently) much more tame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Actually ... common function of vernacular aside, I don't ... because at a glance, LBSW looks like LGBTQ to me, and may as well be a derivative of the movement for all I know because I don't know what what the former means - We make up abbreviations in here that requires a bit of fuller on-board life-saddling commitment to keep track of - I'm not a candidate for linguist. You are a cunninlinquist though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Take your 6 and drizzle and run lock that up in Arctic air and enjoy the clipper of 2 to 4 then await the next big dog. Active I think that is a reasonable ceiling for my area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said: Not impossible that east winds erode things earlier than anticipated and we rain early Certainly, within the realm of possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I don't think there's much hope for a major snowfall, but there's still the difference between like 8-12" and 2-5" on the table which is a pretty large impact from a sensible wx standpoint. Yea, okay..agree....but I think 12" is pushing it. That high would need to trend better fast BC I doubt we wil see the necessary mid level changes to drive those amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: who is that. My man... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 A lot of mental gymnastics here to the point we pretzel ourselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Take…deep…breaths and light it up. It gon’ be alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, White Gorilla said: A lot of mental gymnastics here to the point we pretzel ourselves. See, some people were confused why I posted this earlier. Now they know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Take…deep…breaths and light it up. It gon’ be alright. Don't worry about a thing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 12z Euro does look like it's coming in a bit more suppressed with heights in the northeast through 54h vs 06z. The southern shortwave isn't much different...so I'm guessing this one should come east a little from 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Take…deep…breaths and light it up. It gon’ be all rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: who is that. The Gladiator dammit! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Don't worry about a thing.... Everting…gonna be alright. Don’t worry…bout a ting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Nope. I just think people are only looking for the snowiest/coldest solution without taking into account the polar opposite solution. This storm looks like a pile of dung E of the River. Get up into the Berks, C/NNE and have at it. Agree and it often begins 7-10 days out from the storm even being in position to impact the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: My man... nice. I remember that movie. That's a burly man, Scooter-style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I'll say this again, I am dumbfounded how that s/w dives south with a ridge folding behind it, yet turns the corner like one of those zero degree turn Troy-built lawnmowers. WTF. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: See, some people were confused why I posted this earlier. Now they know. @White Gorilladisagrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: I'll say this again, I am dumbfounded how that s/w dives south with a ridge folding behind it, yet turns the corner like one of those zero degree turn Troy-built lawnmowers. WTF. It's called physics, Scott. Sheesh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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