40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's been showing up for quite awhile, and last night the numerical representation of the telecon likes the 19th -24th. There is a big of flex in the PNA with modestly neg NAO tending modulate back up - It's beyond the free EPS sites vision though, and the individual GEF members are all over the map. Icon hints strongly fwiw Lol Lets get H5 to close off in Houston next time, to make for more fun forecasts. You guys mock me about LBSW, but the number one way to c0ck block your self from a biggie is having H5 close off a decade before it reaches you....it just introduces an orgy of limiting factors. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 27 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: models seem to show >1" qpf across Berks/ NW MA, you'd think with east winds some spots will clean up. Assuming the low doesn't cut farther west Models can tell you bed time stories about excessive amounts of snowfall east of mid level centers all they want, it doesn't alter reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 54 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: WTTTE. Some had fangs ready to pounce. Hmm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 52 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 60 pgs for a storm going over the baseball hall of fame. We note 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Ginx snewx said: We note If I get 1'+ out of this, I will change my screen name to lips n hips. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: If I get 1'+ out of this, I will change my screen name to lips n hips. Yo Debbie would be better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If I get 1'+ out of this, I will change my screen name to lips n hips. lips/hips Benchmark 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Hmm So that’s the GEFS mean? That looks great. So are we to believe that’s just fantasy? Or it’s the outlier..at the moment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 We'll see what happens. Maybe I am wrong, but I just see too many red flags at too little of a lead time to forecast big snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: When is the next lip and hips next event? 1/23? I'm over this- 22nd maybe best you sit that one out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: So that’s the GEFS mean? That looks great. So are we to believe that’s just fantasy? Or it’s the outlier..at the moment? I still think we need the ocean storm to develop and move through tomorrow before any model will be able to latch on to a final solution for Monday...just my 2 cents, it seems like the models are having a hard time handling a storm 24 hrs from now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: So that’s the GEFS mean? That looks great. So are we to believe that’s just fantasy? Or it’s the outlier..at the moment? Just post and whine its the new cool 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 56 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 60 pgs for a storm going over the baseball hall of fame. You hate to see the desperation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just post the one piece of guidance that looks favorable, its the new cooler. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: I still think we need the ocean storm to develop and move through tomorrow before any model will be able to latch on to a final solution for Monday...just my 2 cents, it seems like the models are having a hard time handling a storm 24 hrs from now Yea. I typically like to get the players in position before we are confident how the game plays out. DISCLAIMER: We are not wishcasting, just making an observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea. I typically like to get the players in position before we are confident how the game plays out. That may help with the track and confluence, but you still have things occluding pretty far west. It would help, but its not a silver bullet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We'll see what happens. Maybe I am wrong, but I just see too many red flags at too little of a lead time to forecast big snows. Ya, I’m not thinking big snows, but the lead time is plenty ample since today is Thursday, and this is forecast for Monday. just like last Friday, I’ll be happy with 3-4”, and then let it freeze up. If it ends up being more like last week, great. Last week we were forecast for about 4” here by most outlets. It ended doubling the forecast. This has a 3-4 days left to go..whether that bodes well for us or not, I wouldn’t give up today on a potential moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Just post the one piece of guidance that looks favorable, its the new cooler. ASATT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, WinterWolf said: Ya, I’m not thinking big snows, but the lead time is plenty ample since today is Thursday, and this is forecast for Monday. just like last Friday, I’ll be happy with 3-4”, and then let it freeze up. If it ends up being more like last week, great. Last week we were forecast for about 4” here by most outlets. It ended doubling the forecast. This has a 3-4 days left to go..whether that bodes well for us or not, I wouldn’t give up today on a potential moderate event. No issue with this at all...sounds reasonable. I just sold the big solutions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea. I typically like to get the players in position before we are confident how the game plays out. DISCLAIMER: We are not wishcasting, just making an observation. I like your disclaimers...I definitely wouldn't be slam ducking a forecast for this one anytime soon. That winter hurricane is definitely going to be a bit of a player for the next system, just how much depends on just how big it gets... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Today I agree with NSFW. Lots of time to change first call Saturday ( which is when I personally would have started a thread) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EMontpelierWhiteout Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If I get 1'+ out of this, I will change my screen name to lips n hips. Come on up to ski country where the snow belongs anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, EMontpelierWhiteout said: Come on up to ski country where the snow belongs anyway. Hopefully the deformation sets up over WMontpelier with a sharp cutoff to the east. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea. I typically like to get the players in position before we are confident how the game plays out. DISCLAIMER: We are not wishcasting, just making an observation. No one has taken the field yet but the outcome has been determined, Looks like vegas has there say. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Today I agree with NSFW. Lots if time to change first call Saturday ( which is when I personally would have started a thread) Ya that’s very reasonable imo. This is the problem with starting threads a week out…folks get down and beaten, and get storm fatigue before the big picture is even clear. That’s what’s happening here. Ya hate to see it. I agree with 45Spanks…gotta get this behemoth out if here tomorrow, before the Monday deal is figured out. At the risk of sounding repetitive…there is still a ways to go with this. I agree with you …Storm thread shouldn’t have been started until tomorrow/Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If I get 1'+ out of this, I will change my screen name to lips n hips. 40 Lips/70 Hips? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No issue with this at all...sounds reasonable. I just sold the big solutions. It seems like the very basic features are not being looked at because it shows a lackluster outcome. If this storm tracks to near NYC and even rots, dumbells over to the Cape, it's already a tough solution near and south of the Pike and down 84 except maybe NW CT and Berks area.. That high retreating rapidly warms 925-850. I don't see anything that says take the over, except maybe for the antecedent airmass. However in those locales I mentioned, that may erode quickly with strong erly flow. I thought Ryan had a good take there for that area and I agree. It also sucks it's not passing by and cold air rapidly moves in. You have a shit airmass coming in from the W and SW before deep CAA takes place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea. I typically like to get the players in position before we are confident how the game plays out. DISCLAIMER: We are not wishcasting, just making an observation. Bob thinks everyone who disagrees with him is wishcasting. Yea maybe put disclaimers on so the righteous have no ammo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Only reason I'd still hold out for a bigger solution is that we are still 96h from go time...if we were 72 then I'd be resigned to an Albany or CT River track. But outside of the GFS, there isn't much support for something more favorable. Pending the Euro obviously, but I do not expect it to improve much, if at all, based on other 12z globals. IF Euro comes in flatter and ensembles also show that trend, then I think there is renewed life in this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: When is the next lip and hips next event? 1/23? I'm over this- 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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