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Monitoring a potential important TV to East Coastal storm: Jan 17


Typhoon Tip
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7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I didn’t think this could turn the corner that quickly after it gets buried into the southeast but the trailing sw diving in will ultimately have a lot to say as to who wins and who whines. 

I will whine my ass off if I end up with a lot of rain from this....just an unfathomable stretch that would cap off worse than anything in the 80s.

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24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Confidence high on a storm on the EPS, but plenty of spread....but not bad for D6.

Jan11_12zEPS150.png

Jan11_12zEPS156.png

Let's take that 971 that is about 150 miles east of Ocean City, and slam it right up Narragansett Bay at 955 mbs.  I want warm and foggy east of 495, a raging back and forth of mixed precip from 495 to Ware, and west of an Assthol-Ware-Old Saybrook line...a wind driven blizzard.  Any takers, WOTR?

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21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the correction vector is west on that mean. looking at the spread, as most of the eastern members are unphased and skew the mean.

Agreed, and note that there are not a ton of members in the bullseye.  Beware of The Golden Mean Fallacy.  Then again, it is six days out, so who the F knows.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I will whine my ass off if I end up with a lot of rain from this....just an unfathomable stretch that would cap off worse than anything in the 80s.

The 80s were brutal for my weenie career. Cold stretches followed by big rainers was the norm so one of these wouldn’t compare necessarily…but it will certainly feel like 1988 again.

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The 80s were brutal for my weenie career. Cold stretches followed by big rainers was the norm so one of these wouldn’t compare necessarily…but it will certainly feel like 1988 again.

If that happened to me, it would be pretty comparable to the 4 year stretch from 1988-1989 through 1991-1992.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If that happened to me, it would be pretty comparable to the 4 year stretch from 1988-1989 through 1991-1992.

There is plenty of time and model runs for the late night crew to console each other, if that would be the case. We’ll probably have to become each other’s mindfulness guides…

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39 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This is probably going to be blue bomb grid problem for a 50 mi wide swath wherever the coastal plain wind bends NNE, and locks 31.9 - 32.5 F under a 55 dbz water coated aggregate returns. 

man wow, is what that is.

This reminds me of Dec 92 . Slow mover , heavy wet snow, high winds etc 

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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

There is plenty of time and model runs for the late night crew to console each other, if that would be the case. We’ll probably have to become each other’s mindfulness guides…

I think there is very little chance of you being mainly rain that far west.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There is probably a remote spread sheet somewhere that has it ranked as the third best model, right behind the Euro...it probably nails the tides in Sagami Bay.

Funny, but also serious. They probably have short range and niche models that piggyback their global model.

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