RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Close to all snow just to my north in Litchfield. If that freaging high would hang on longer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 That's essentially a wash with 06z GFS....there are some really minor differences, but not worth getting out an electron microscope to analyze a 90-96 hour solution. We had counter-acting trends on that run aloft...we had better confluence holding to out north and east, but the southern shortwave was a tad slower that run which allowed it to amplify and "Catch up" to the 06z run later on...I think some spots further south were a little colder this run too, but again, small differences. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 qpf looks meh .75 total here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: That's essentially a wash with 06z GFS....there are some really minor differences, but not worth getting out an electron microscope to analyze a 90-96 hour solution. We had counter-acting trends on that run aloft...we had better confluence holding to out north and east, but the southern shortwave was a tad slower that run which allowed it to amplify and "Catch up" to the 06z run later on...I think some spots further south were a little colder this run too, but again, small differences. I thought the same. Better confluence, but srn vort slower. Although it was trying to figure out which secondary to use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Looks great for S Maine and N Central NH, and Berks 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I'll take that as a positive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Looks great for S Maine and N Central NH, and Berks Congrats you too. I love how you leave your area out. LOL. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Best run here in the last several cycles. Bob Turk said he is going to have a couple of sleepless nights figuring out the rain/snow line thru Baltimore. He works Sunday night. Good luck down there. Where is your place? NE Maryland I think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Looks at all those meso lows. LOL. That's going to be tough to figure out, and it's crucial. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I thought the same. Better confluence, but srn vort slower. Although it was trying to figure out which secondary to use. If we can have that southern stream bulge out to the east a bit, we can prob redevelop a mid-level center. You can almost see this happening on the GFS at 96 hours....look at that kink in the 700mb heights and how it's even seen a little bit at H5....if we can have that poking east just a bit even if the actual H5 center is further west, then that would help a lot 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Congrats you too. I love how you leave your area out. LOL. Well, those areas look like double what N ORH county would have, but I won't complain even if it is an inch. Some decent rains the second part... blah... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: If we can have that southern stream bulge out to the east a bit, we can prob redevelop a mid-level center. You can almost see this happening on the GFS at 96 hours....look at that kink in the 700mb heights and how it's even seen a little bit at H5....if we can have that poking east just a bit even if the actual H5 center is further west, then that would help a lot that's what those flatter heights did for us right? NAM did have a ton of confluence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, wxeyeNH said: Bob Turk said he is going to have a couple of sleepless nights figuring out the rain/snow line thru Baltimore. He works Sunday night. Good luck down there. Where is your place? NE Maryland I think? Yeah, NE MD. It's always a battleground zone in these events. Depending on how this breaks it could be 8 inches or 1 inch within a few miles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Well, those areas look like double what N ORH county would have, but I won't complain even if it is an inch. Some decent rains the second part... blah... Almost no rain except SE. Snow to drizzle to slot to freeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Looks like tic tac toe at the surface trying to decide which SLP to go with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Almost no rain except SE. Snow to drizzle to slot to freeze Just stating what the GFS shows... rains aplenty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: that's what those flatter heights did for us right? NAM did have a ton of confluence Yeah it kind of starts compressing those lows as they gain latitude....we want to see those compressed and elongating more E-W....if H5 starts elongating E-W, then it will try and produce a redeveloping ML center to the east. Even if the eastern ML center doesn't become dominant before reaching us, just having it develop will help a lot as it will slow down the WAA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I would have been more disappointed in missing out on a long duration/historical event. Since it seems like that is no longer on the table I’m fine missing out on this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Just stating what the GFS shows... rains aplenty. Not at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Not at all This looks like rain to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 12z GEFS will be west of 6z which makes sense. 6z GEFS will the outlier. But still probably SE of op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it kind of starts compressing those lows as they gain latitude....we want to see those compressed and elongating more E-W....if H5 starts elongating E-W, then it will try and produce a redeveloping ML center to the east. Even if the eastern ML center doesn't become dominant before reaching us, just having it develop will help a lot as it will slow down the WAA. What's interesting is it looks like that is the main driver of the favorable mslp on the 6z GEFS. They didn't go all that far east down by VA, but once they hit 40N it looks like they got squeezed east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: This looks like rain to me looks like drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Not at all Yeah it’s more white than wet where he is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Hopefully Blizz and JC are right...anyway, plenty of more runs to sort this out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: This looks like rain to me Maybe some drizzle at the end? That doesn't even look saturated above 900mb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Bob Turk said he is going to have a couple of sleepless nights figuring out the rain/snow line thru Baltimore. He works Sunday night. Good luck down there. Where is your place? NE Maryland I think? Bob Turk!?!?!? He's still alive lol????? He was my go to weather forecaster when I grew up in Baltimore. I was there from 1969-1985. Loved me some Bob Turk!!!!! He seemed old when I was a kid lol, but I guess all adults seem old when your young. On another note, love the .5-2.2" precip gradient in Albany County. GFS hittin that orographic bong hard! My biggest fear in the Hudson Valley with these types of lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Hopefully Blizz and JC are right...anyway, plenty of more runs to sort this out. You’re getting half a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 12z GEFS looks like its over the elbow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Yeah it’s more white than wet where he is. GFS verbatim is mostly snow for Kevin, only .1 to .25" qpf as rain.. again thats just 12z gfs verbatim 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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