Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 9 hours ago, OceanStWx said: Flatten everything and it probably would head east. But I don't know if a weaker wave coupled with a really strong northern stream digging would help any. I think he means me, my name is John, and I have mentioned the facets heh... I'm just modestly concerned about this tendency for Pac mechanics to be "over-assessed." There's been a kind of leitmotif over recent years of modeling frankly, sometimes more obvious, other times more nuanced. I don't really think it is done on purpose - that part has been tongue-in-cheek. But rather dependable, one can anticipate losing kinematic ("might") once a coverage has moved from 168 to 72 or so hours. In this case, that matters. The ridge is too far west of climo, but...prooobably that is compensated by the speed of the flow - tending to stretch x-coordinate. I am noticing the original conception of the GFS to phase is out the window. These two waves end up not phasing. That is very important, because as is, the lead is quite powerful, but if the aft approach "kicks" more...it ends up driving that lead toward the NY Bit and not allowing it to move/capture a low toward Upstate NY. This above idea is nicely exemplified by the 06z GFS, with ~ 10 or 15 kts of additional wind momentum in the NP at 84 hours, and I don't really believe the "hints" more coastal commitment are in jest. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Good to see some offshore members. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I agree with Fisher on the cape track. I'd like to see something near there too, but as it is intensifying. What isn't ideal, is a Cape track, but only after LBSW, and it's just occluding and dumbelling off the south coast. By then the WAA is well inland and polluting SNE. Having it intensify as it goes to the Cape would be significantly better. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: I think he means me, my name is John, and I have mentioned the facets heh... I'm just modestly concerned about this tendency for Pac mechanics to be "over-assessed." There's been a kind of leitmotif over recent years of modeling frankly, sometimes more obvious, other times more nuanced. I don't really think it is done on purpose - that part has been tongue-in-cheek. But rather dependable, one can anticipate losing kinematic ("might") once a coverage has moved from 168 to 72 or so hours. In this case, that matters. The ridge is too far west of climo, but...prooobably that is compensated by the speed of the flow - tending to stretch x-coordinate. I am noticing the original conception of the GFS to phase is out the window. These two waves end up not phasing. That is very important, because as is, the lead is quite powerful, but if the aft approach "kicks" more...it ends up driving that lead toward the NY Bit and not allowing it to move/capture a low toward Upstate NY. This above idea is nicely exemplified by the 06z GFS, with ~ 10 or 15 kts of additional wind momentum in the NP at 84 hours, and I don't really believe the "hints" more coastal commitment are in jest. Phasing hardly ever send up as proficient or fast as originally modeled...been saying that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, guidance often over sells the moisture east of mid level lows...IE they overestimate precip from low level fronto, and drastrically underassess precip attributable to mid level fronto. 2 areas of big wins will be the deform and the pivot. we just don't know who gets them. I volunteer and behalf of myself, Brian, Gene and Jeff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 At 72H, the NAM has a 1033 high over BGM, the 06Z GFS at 78H has the same high but centered north of BML. What's 300 miles between friends anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I'd like to see something near there too, but as it is intensifying. What isn't ideal, is a Cape track, but only after LBSW, and it's just occluding and dumbelling off the south coast. By then the WAA is well inland and polluting SNE. Having it intensify as it goes to the Cape would be significantly better. A later/less proficient phase would take care of that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 20 minutes ago, JC-CT said: dryslot panic ? He has highest % chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: A later/less proficient phase would take care of that. Yesterday we were told it's too late for East shifts.... 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Yesterday we were told it's too late for East shifts.... By who? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS was def better at 06z. Need to see the euro come back east some. I'm a bit behind, Will ... but for me, the last 3-cycle consolidation trend ( lesser and lesser spread members) of the GEFs mean, is a red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Yesterday we were told it's too late for East shifts.... Yeah, These never change when there 100hrs+ out 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: ? He has highest % chance I meant for me lol it was a joke 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: 2 areas of big wins will be the deform and the pivot. we just don't know who gets them. I volunteer and behalf of myself, Brian, Gene and Jeff. I think that will end up wayyy inland. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yesterday we were told it's too late for East shifts.... By whom? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, dendrite said: I think that will end up wayyy inland. NY State...even if this ticks east some it will be in NY State probably....since the western solutions are in SE Ontario to near MSS....lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, dendrite said: I think that will end up wayyy inland. Yea..that is for NYS even if its near the BM. Huge system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Regardless, that's a big ice signal for ATL-CLT corridor on the nam, woah. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Yeah deffy bands over the meth labs of BGM over to SLK probably. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Regardless, that's a big ice signal for ATL-CLT corridor on the nam, woah. It is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Disaster down there.... long duration icing with a lot of qpf. They get those fairly often it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: By who? Weed 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Similar to Feb (27?) 2010 maybe? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Icon east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Icon east tracks right over my head 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Its on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 For me there are three main deterministic hurdles: - correctly sampling the current S/W in the N stream passing SE through Alberta - correctly sampling the S/W currently just beginning to nose in off the Washington/Oregon coast(s). - the proficiency of phase ( amount) once they are both ejected into the L/W ... east of 100W through the synopsis Little longer observations: That last point is dependent to some degree on the first two. The larger hemispheric manifold/instruction is that the western +PNAP is subtly increasing, and that is helping to bottom out the trough over eastern mid latitudes. phase roficiency: at one end, full phase. I visualize that resulting in slowing down, deep, massive and powerful. This is the less likely, but not 0 chance. The flow is too fast and that disrupts the kinematic "fusion" if you will. A bigger western ridge expression would tend to start that process - I can't find a run anywhere that's doing that. But I suppose there's time. in the middle you get partial phase. This ... This is [apparently] the preferred idea of the EPS/ Euro. Basically, the lead is what it is ...but the NP S/W borrows in from the NW, and that tips the flow N along the EC ...and anything in said flow goes with it. So in that sense, it is "rotating" around the stress of the S/W's approach ( which is physically keyed into the planetary wave space so is thus having more proxy - ). at the other end, no phase. This would mean the S/W approaching acts more like a 'kicker'. The lead wave gets ejected probably more NE as opposed to N or NNE. It's hard to know where along that spectrum this will be.. but I suspect the large circulation is more confident, ... the interactions within will become so probably when this is more 84 ... 72 lead. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I think this is going to be a rt 128 storm.Torture. I still remember pinging on VDay while you were doing naked snow angels in Wilmington 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 13 minutes ago, dryslot said: Its on. Once your favorite model is on board, it's time to sound the alarm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Once your favorite model is on board, it's time to sound the alarm. So around 12:45?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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