40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: To get therapy lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: GEM and GFS are actually in pretty good agreement on where the gradient may end up. Interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Going back? Sorry, 40/70. I meant physical therapy. Gave up on mental quite awhile back. As always…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Ray is ready to pound me with aluminum bats in his shed, but he'll never be able to pound Will. I know he wants to do that too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Interesting dryslot panic commence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Ray is ready to pound me with aluminum bats in his shed, but he'll never be able to pound Will. I know he wants to do that too. He needs a few events from '07-'08 to take me to the shed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: Ray is ready to pound me with aluminum bats in his shed, but he'll never be able to pound Will. I know he wants to do that too. I'd sell those amounts of over a foot in SNE on the GFS....not happening east of mid level centers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 Good morning.. back here on page 47 - Obviously the 06z oper. GFS was intriguing, though still needs work - I'm sure that run's already been through the gauntlet so won't press. But noting the 850 mb 0C no long penetrates much NW of Willamantic CT to Logon. Obviously there hints this may be a changing coastal ( models) evolution tho - Fast flow for the loss ..ugh. After all this time and consternation, only 1/3 of the players is now sampled (in theory) but who's doing sounding over the B.C. cordillera. The other aspect are still not, as of 06z, covered in the more physically realized. I am not sure if this factor means as much as it used to, frankly, but.. I am also not convinced that it means nothing at all - particularly in a scenario that appears to be more sensitive than a bum tooth ... Nuances meaning the difference in commitment to coastal, vs climate "iffy" track to ALB. CIP, the S/W careening through the NP at 84 hours is now 10kts more mightily doing so in this 06z GFS run. And it appears to be "kicking" the lead (nesting our storm) more E in total deep layer kinematic positioning. That is triggering deeper convection explosion ( probably ...) and this 06z attempt at surface relo toward ACK may be a response to that. But the situation is in flux I feel, and any more east bump of the whole-scale structuring/synopsis through that 84-108 period here in the E, will result in a fuller commitment to more of a GEF -like position. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd sell those amounts of over a foot in SNE on the GFS....not happening east of mid level centers. Yeah prob more like 8-12 then a slot. But if we can nudge this east enough to get the low over the Cape, then we could see some amounts marginally over 12"....kind of like March 2017...I think I had 13-14" in that one before getting slotted. On the flip side, we can prob sell amounts over 8" if something closer to the Euro happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Good morning.. back here on page 41 - Obviously the 06z oper. GFS was intriguing, though still needs work - I'm sure that run's already been through the gauntlet so won't press. But noting the 850 mb 0C no long penetrates much NW of Willamantic CT to Logon. Obviously there hints this may be a changing coastal ( models) evolution tho - Fast flow for the loss ..ugh. After all this time and consternation, only 1/3 of the players is now sampled (in theory) but who's doing sounding over the B.C. cordillera. The other aspect are still not, as of 06z, covered in the more physically realized. I am not sure if this factor means as much as it used to, frankly, but.. I am also not convinced that it means nothing at all - particularly in a scenario that appears to be more sensitive than a bum tooth ... Nuances meaning the difference in commitment to coastal, vs climate "iffy" track to ALB. CIP, the S/W careening through the NP at 84 hours is now 10kts more mightily doing so in this 06z GFS run. And it appears to be "kicking" the lead (nesting our storm) more E in total deep layer kinematic positioning. That is triggering deeper convection explosion ( probably ...) and this 06z attempt at surface relo toward ACK may be a response to that. But the situation is in flux I feel, and any more east bump of the whole-scale structuring/synopsis through that 84-108 period here in the E, will result in a fuller commitment to more of a GEF -like position. Yea, I hate those uber-sensitive bum teeth..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah prob more like 8-12 then a slot. But if we can nudge this east enough to get the low over the Cape, then we could see some amounts marginally over 12"....kind of like March 2017...I think I had 13-14" in that one before getting slotted. On the flip side, we can prob sell amounts over 8" if something closer to the Euro happens. Yea, get the mid level synoptics se, and okay.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd sell those amounts of over a foot in SNE on the GFS....not happening east of mid level centers. If I could get 6" and some rain and slot and have a 4" glacier, sign me up. But man if that high did not retreat, it would be nuts. You'd probably play naked CF where you are for awhile if that happened. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: If I could get 6" and some rain and slot and have a 4" glacier, sign me up. But man if that high did not retreat, it would be nuts. You'd probably play naked CF where you are for awhile if that happened. I think I still may....it will be around my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think I still may....it will be around my area. Nah 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Nah I can't see it being much further se than rt 128... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 It's the NAM, but I'm only looking at 54 hours (not 84) and the northern stream shortwave is a lot weaker this run and the Friday system is hanging back quite a bit while the southern stream is digging a bit more south....I think this would create a better slingshot solution for NE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I can't see it being much further se than rt 128... Plenty of time and SE trends to go 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, rclab said: Sorry, 40/70. I meant physical therapy. Gave up on mental quite awhile back. As always…. 'Physical therapy' has a higher success rate with less clothes on... 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah prob more like 8-12 then a slot. But if we can nudge this east enough to get the low over the Cape, then we could see some amounts marginally over 12"....kind of like March 2017...I think I had 13-14" in that one before getting slotted. On the flip side, we can prob sell amounts over 8" if something closer to the Euro happens. Mar17 was/is at the top of my list of how this might play out. Big thump then dryslot snizzle while the interior gets the mid level goodies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Plenty of time SE trends to go Sure...I just mean as currently modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Nam is really digging for gold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 12z Nam is digging that s/w pretty far SE this run from 06z @hr66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, moneypitmike said: I think it's much too soon to discuss "compromise" solutions. They are both moving, so we don't even have stationary goal posts to compromise from. What I really mean is that to assess the current status quo we compromise gefs and eps with a lean towards other model output. Every 6 or 12 we shift the status quo using these guidelines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's the NAM, but I'm only looking at 54 hours (not 84) and the northern stream shortwave is a lot weaker this run and the Friday system is hanging back quite a bit while the southern stream is digging a bit more south....I think this would create a better slingshot solution for NE. ARPEGE leading the way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's the NAM, but I'm only looking at 54 hours (not 84) and the northern stream shortwave is a lot weaker this run and the Friday system is hanging back quite a bit while the southern stream is digging a bit more south....I think this would create a better slingshot solution for NE. I know it's not this simple but I have a hard time buying an inland runner when the trough is that positive as it crosses the miss river. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The NAM should have some really zonked out runs over the next few days. Enjoy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Worth noting that at 12z today, the southern stream s/w is just starting to come on shore. Will be mostly on shore by 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Watch this whole system miss the phase and shoot harmlessly out to sea....still so much time before go time 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Don't concentrate on the big L though. As Scott says look at the conveyor belts and temps. Forcing is way ahead of the big L. That's the meat and potatoes for us. 6 to 9 hrs and she gone Depending upon the ultimate track, somebody will get the thumpity dumpity, but then also a pivot while those to the s and e get slotted. And then there will be deformation way way n and w. the 12+ will in the pivot I would think, yes? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I know it's not this simple but I have a hard time buying an inland runner when the trough is that positive as it crosses the miss river. Yea, I agree with Fisher on the cape track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, mahk_webstah said: Depending upon the ultimate track, somebody will get the thumpity dumpity, but then also a pivot while those to the s and e get slotted. And then there will be deformation way way n and w. the 12+ will in the pivot I would think, yes? Yea, guidance often over sells the moisture east of mid level lows...IE they overestimate precip from low level fronto, and drastrically underassess precip attributable to mid level fronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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