Lava Rock Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 16 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Ugh ugly runs overnight. Starting to look beyond. Not much past this storm on the models BUT we are heading into the good pattern depicted on the ensembles. We wait. wasn't this being said last week about this week? just another week away as always 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I still have no idea how to read those sensitivity charts, but makes sense knocking down the ridge a bit would shove things east down. Although I think a strong nrn vort is a risk of picking up the srn vort. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Still needs work but: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Somehow the models all show me staying as snow no matter where the low goes. My little spot has been locked in for 10" on every run for a while now. I just don't see how I stay snow with a low well NW of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: I just got up to look, but EPS looked west. Like way west. Not a single member is southeast of us now You can see how the 06z run has come back east a good tick 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: CHH That's what I think but it won't matter to you or I. Thumpidity Thump to rain back to light snow. First call out Saturday. Some more kinks towards LI so maybe not done moving we track 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: Somehow the models all show me staying as snow no matter where the low goes. My little spot has been locked in for 10" on every run for a while now. I just don't see how I stay snow with a low well NW of me. Cold air, I'm guessing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: You can see how the 06z run has come back east a good tick If 12z keeps the se tick alive, we may have something brewing chief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Ginx snewx said: That's what I think but ut won't matter to you or I. Thumpidity Thump to rain back to light snow. First call out Saturday. Some more kinks towards LI so maybe not done moving we track Wait, you dont think it matters whether it's over CHH vs Stamford? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Somehow the models all show me staying as snow no matter where the low goes. My little spot has been locked in for 10" on every run for a while now. I just don't see how I stay snow with a low well NW of me. You will whine your self to over a foot. You have adopted the AEMATT way very quickly 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: Cold air, I'm guessing I'm glad you're posting regularly again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: Cold air, I'm guessing That’s because he’s Santa’s neighbor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Ginx snewx said: You will whine your self to over a foot. You have adopted the AEMATT way very quickly It seems to work out pretty well for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, JC-CT said: Wait, you dont think it matters whether it's over CHH vs Stamford? Nah all the forcing is north of the actual LP. Once the omega is gone you are left with low level crap 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: You will whine your self to over a foot. You have adopted the AEMATT way very quickly If we could all disrobe over upslope like you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Somehow the models all show me staying as snow no matter where the low goes. My little spot has been locked in for 10" on every run for a while now. I just don't see how I stay snow with a low well NW of me. Occlusion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: No matter the outcome pretty happy I was able to identify Mon Tuesday as a major 16 days ago. Sometimes you just see the face. Next up the 22nd Yea, you were better with the time frame...awesome. I was off by a few days last fall and had the RNA to PNA handoff backwards. January Analogs: 1955, 1956, 1971, 1996, 2006 (x3), 2001, 2018, 2012, 1989, 1965, 1976 "There is a slight chance of a KU magnitude, Archambault type east coast snowfall between approximately December 28th and January 11th, as any residual high latitude blocking erodes and heights lower in the vicinity of Alaska and western Canada. Heights will also lower in the western US as the aleutian ridge retrogrades into the pacific and a sustained RNA accompanies the development of an active, zonal pacific storm track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Nah all the forcing is north of the actual LP. Once the omega is gone you are left with low level crap Of Course it matters lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: That’s because he’s Santa’s neighbor. I need to get ahead of J Spin in the snow total power rankings and this is the only way to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, PhineasC said: It seems to work out pretty well for them. Lol yep every storm. You should have been here in 2015. Sickening lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Nah all the forcing is north of the actual LP. Once the omega is gone you are left with low level crap I guess I figured it would matter how much of that forcing produces white stuff vs clear stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, PhineasC said: I need to get ahead of J Spin in the snow total power rankings and this is the only way to do it. Not if he counts every 0.1” 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, JC-CT said: I guess I figured it would matter how much of that forcing produces white stuff vs clear stuff. It certainly matters. A track near CHH would greatly limit the influx of warm air from the ocean to like 925-850. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: Not if he counts every 0.1” That's why I need 12" at a time. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol yep every storm. You should have been here in 2015. Sickening lol Edibles 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: Of Course it matters lol. Meh I know my SWFE climo and you know you get overwhelmed with warm air. In the interior it wont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: I guess I figured it would matter how much of that forcing produces white stuff vs clear stuff. All tracks matter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It certainly matters. A track near CHH would greatly limit the influx of warm air from the ocean to like 925-850. DT was saying that to me on twitter last night....I mentioned that 00z GEFS trended well east, and he said they didn't change much. I was like the mean went from Boston to the Benchmark lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: All tracks matter. Oh no, I wasn't talking about the storm there...I was referring to Scooter's wad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Don't concentrate on the big L though. As Scott says look at the conveyor belts and temps. Forcing is way ahead of the big L. That's the meat and potatoes for us. 6 to 9 hrs and she gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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