40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Very weird track I'm rooting for the gefs Quick note on GEFS.....that track is the mean of OTS camp, and interior hit camp. Some have stronger southern wave that remains discrete from n stream and scoots out to sea. Path to most snow is probably a slight tic east with a good front ender bc the other option is probably a brush if it doesn't phase. I favor the slight tick east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I’m not a fan of what I see on the euro, it has a low way inland. If it is right about a low running inland that will make things tougher. However, due to the frigid temps before the storm this still has a lot of potential. If after initially cutting to the west, the low redevelops to the coast and turns into a Miller B, then we have something good going. Right now it’s just a Miller A and that’s not going to cut it. It wouldn’t take a ton of changes to get that low to transfer to the coast, just need the blocking to be a bit stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Henry's Weather said: I wonder how often these events trend east in the modeling from D4-5 to event time. Especially Southern stream fueled ones Track is dependent on degree and timing of phasing...not that simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 This could easily flood most of E SNE with rain and not much snow to speak of . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: This could easily flood most of E SNE with rain and not much snow to speak of . Doubt it back here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: This could easily flood most of E SNE with rain and not much snow to speak of . Yeah we need large scale changes to the evolution at h5 to avoid the rain. Still far out enough where that’s possible, but the european guidance cannot be ignored. I hate seeing the only guidance with a favorable solution being the gefs. The NNE guys are in a very good spot for this if the guidance is correct, my area not so much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 So everything goes east including EPS except the GGEM and Euro op which is goes 100 miles west and washes snow away to the Canadian border . Was nice to see GEFS and GFS east and colder . Poor Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: So everything goes east including EPS except the GGEM and Euro op which is goes 100 miles west and washes snow away to the Canadian border . Was nice to see GEFS and GFS east and colder . Poor Euro I just got up to look, but EPS looked west. Like way west. Not a single member is southeast of us now 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I just got up to look, but EPS looked west. Like way west. Not a single member is southeast of us now Been some tough model reads the past day or two… like some don’t even look at them before making statements when they are so readily available. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I just got up to look, but EPS looked west. Like way west. Not a single member is southeast of us now Yeah, maybe the morning run went to his head? Very clear westward shift from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6z GFS looks like it pops a secondary near LI this run. Improved for sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Quick note on GEFS.....that track is the mean of OTS camp, and interior hit camp. Some have stronger southern wave that remains discrete from n stream and scoots out to sea. Path to most snow is probably a slight tic east with a good front ender bc the other option is probably a brush if it doesn't phase. I favor the slight tick east I don't think it would be a brush. The phasing could just be delayed if the southern wave moves east faster. And I do think models are too slow with the southern stream. Progressive flow pattern has been the game last several years. So it's not over just yet Gfs def speeding up southern wave last few runs as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Yeah--06z is a lot snowier. Looks like by the time any mixing might occur many would be dry-slotting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Yeah--06z is a lot snowier. Looks like by the time any mixing might occur many would be dry-slotting. Yeah that’s much better. Colder SNE and gets the mid-level stuff more into BTV forecast area instead of north of Lake Ontario. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6z GEFS take care of everyone nicely 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Gefs still looking good for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 49 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Been some tough model reads the past day or two… like some don’t even look at them before making statements when they are so readily available. We were referring to 18z . But yes you def struggled at reading that SE trend last nite 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 33 minutes ago, WeatherX said: 6z GFS looks like it pops a secondary near LI this run. Improved for sure This was the usual overamped Euro run and when the folks that sleep in late start getting up soon they’ll freak out and assume it’s correct . And then 6z will start the slide back SE . You know how these work 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gefs still looking good for the coast Poor Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Poor Euro I spy a low pressure off the coast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 What’s up with GEFS being so far SE, interesting… we take 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Sign me up for the GEFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Badger Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 So those EPAC missions providing extra sampling data that OceanSTWx posted, who gets the data ? Would it only be in the US models or would the Euro also have it ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 EPS is so amped. I’ll sell GEFS. Maybe in between, but I don’t see an offshore look with this setup and retreating high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 GEFS are an outlier right now. Good luck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GEFS are an outlier right now. Good luck. They don’t look too different .. lol 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GEFS are an outlier right now. Good luck. Aren't they they the only 06z run we can see other than the op? If so, they're not outliers. They're one of two things that make for an apples-to-apples comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Of course the eps are closer to correct, no question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Aren't they they the only 06z run we can see other than the op? If so, they're not outliers. They're one of two things that make for an apples-to-apples comparison. 6z EPS is out too. Every single model including gfs op is west of the GEFS. They are the outlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GEFS are an outlier right now. Good luck. No one knows yet Gfs did take a step eastward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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