OceanStWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hmm John was saying that trending weaker would send it east... Flatten everything and it probably would head east. But I don't know if a weaker wave coupled with a really strong northern stream digging would help any. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, OceanStWx said: Flatten everything and it probably would head east. But I don't know if a weaker wave coupled with a really strong northern stream digging would help any. So, if the wave(southern stream) is stronger, it will be able to carry itself further east, before the potent northern stream dives into it, and stalls it out and turns it north? Am I visualizing that phasing scenario correctly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: So, if the wave(southern stream) is stronger, it will be able to carry itself further east, before the potent northern stream dives into it, and stalls it out and turns it north? Am I visualizing that phasing scenario correctly? More or less. It just allows them to remain separate longer. Now we are actually getting some sounding data from the open ocean, so it's not a black box this time around. They were ingested into the 00z GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 12 minutes ago, yoda said: Yikes. Expect the Euro to be similar. Not a great 0z suite but better than the 12z I guess It’s everything vs. GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: More or less. It just allows them to remain separate longer. Now we are actually getting some sounding data from the open ocean, so it's not a black box this time around. They were ingested into the 00z GFS. Why did the GEFS go east so much with that new data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Why did the GEFS go east so much with that new data? Maybe that shortwave was sampled a lil stronger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Why did the GEFS go east so much with that new data? Just now, WinterWolf said: Maybe that shortwave was sampled a lil stronger? I would have to compare the 12z GEFS forecast to the 00z obs, but that would be my guess as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, WinterWolf said: Maybe that shortwave was sampled a lil stronger? Right, but wouldn't the OP go east, too then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Right, but wouldn't the OP go east, too then? We know how long that OP takes to respond…look at Fridays storm..it was the last model to come west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Right, but wouldn't the OP go east, too then? That's why this is done with the ensembles more so than the deterministic runs. Because you get a stronger wave through many runs and on average the mean shifts east. But the deterministic could have one weird moose fart that leads to a poor solution locally. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: We know how long that OP takes to respond…look at Fridays storm..it was the last model to come west. GEM and UK didn't, either...EURO pending... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 10 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: Yikes. Expect the Euro to be similar. Not a great 0z suite but better than the 12z I guess It’s everything vs. GEFS The euro may follow but it’s a fallacy to presume they’re lock step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Thanks so much, Chris...learn a ton from your insight. Expect a canal census to emerge. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Thanks so much, Chris...learn a ton from your insight. Expect a canal census to emerge. Yup same here for me too..very informative. Appreciate it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 No help from the GEPS, looks more or less the same from 12Z with a mean track from NNJ to SNH. The Gefs very intriguing though, especially based on the above. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 CMC ensembles are still hideous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: My call remains upper cape..like Falmouth..maybe canal I hope you are right, If it goes over the cape that puts interior se ma in the game for big snows as well. Even on the runs with a well inland track, for areas NW of the low even just like 5-10 miles are getting hammered with big snows. Didn’t one of the storms (I forget which one) in January 2011 have a low track over that area, and the rain snow line was confined to just NW of the canal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Thanks so much, Chris...learn a ton from your insight. Expect a canal census to emerge. 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Yup same here for me too..very informative. Appreciate it. I try but honestly I even have to review the literature every once and a while to remember what things mean. All I know is the days of analyzing a single model run in the extended are long gone (or should be). Just a ton of data to be gleaned from the ensembles now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I was half asleep but woke up to respond to a few work emails with our Asia team…and now I might as well stay up to experience continued disappointment, or hope, in real time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I try but honestly I even have to review the literature every once and a while to remember what things mean. All I know is the days of analyzing a single model run in the extended are long gone (or should be). Just a ton of data to be gleaned from the ensembles now. So it’s not just us weenies being slapped in the head with information overload. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: So it’s not just us weenies being slapped in the head with information overload. My reaction always seems to be WTF. Shift of tails, ensemble sensitivity, etc. It all sounds made up. But once I did some training on it, they're really powerful tools. There's so much more than the mean. The mean may be a good forecast starting point, but some of these other tools can tell you whether you can honk or head home. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 14 minutes ago, George001 said: I hope you are right, If it goes over the cape that puts interior se ma in the game for big snows as well. Even on the runs with a well inland track, for areas NW of the low even just like 5-10 miles are getting hammered with big snows. Didn’t one of the storms (I forget which one) in January 2011 have a low track over that area, and the rain snow line was confined to just NW of the canal? Yea, the blizzard, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: My reaction always seems to be WTF. Shift of tails, ensemble sensitivity, etc. It all sounds made up. But once I did some training on it, they're really powerful tools. There's so much more than the mean. The mean may be a good forecast starting point, but some of these other tools can tell you whether you can honk or head home. Why do you think the GEPS didn't change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Why do you think the GEPS didn't change? Looking at the 12z GEPS sensitivity it didn't really have a coherent pattern to follow until like 36-48 hours from now. It seems to be more northern stream dominant, like way up in northern Alaska right now northern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Euro is very amped. Even interior areas see rain. Wtf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Euro is a disaster! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Euro does not bleed under us but rams the low up the St Lawrence. Good for the Laurentians and Quebec. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: Euro does not bleed under us but rams the low up the St Lawrence. Good for the Laurentians and Quebec. Very weird track I'm rooting for the gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Very weird track I'm rooting for the gefs I think we all are but it’s probably not happening. At this point we might as well hope for it to be in the best possible spot to somehow help downstream for any other threat. That might be a lost cause too. Lights out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I wonder how often these events trend east in the modeling from D4-5 to event time. Especially Southern stream fueled ones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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