40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 17 minutes ago, weathafella said: Some awful analysis here… Pop the dentures in and chew a gummy 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 GEFS members more spread out at hr90. Slight tic E on mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: There are changes forthcoming. Said that earlier tonight…agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: GEFS members more spread out at hr90. Slight tic E on mean. A few more weaker members in there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: So in this case, greater western heights are bad....holy shit the irony considering December...not sure whether to laugh or cry. That being said the shortwave will be approaching the coast tomorrow morning, and a stronger wave could start to dominate the pattern. 12z GEFS had a ton of spread in a really nice area for New England snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Pop the dentures in and chew a gummy I want to see you in 35 years but alas… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: That being said the shortwave will be approaching the coast tomorrow morning, and a stronger wave could start to dominate the pattern. 12z GEFS had a ton of spread in a really nice area for New England snow. You have great info Chris…but I always feel like I’m not quite understanding what you’re trying to convey? A stronger wave could start to dominate the pattern? What wave are we talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 One does not look like the other 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 There's a big storm coming Sun/Mon so that's fun. Details to be ironed out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: I want to see you in 35 years but alas… I'm just kidding, sorry if I offended you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm just kidding, sorry if I offended you. You didn’t. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Honestly, GFS ensembles are not giant steps away from going over the elbow of the Cape. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: That’s big, and that doesn’t look to bad to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Honestly, GFS ensembles are not giant steps away from going over the elbow of the Cape. My call remains upper cape..like Falmouth..maybe canal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 So much time left for this one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: You have great info Chris…but I always feel like I’m not quite understanding what you’re trying to convey? A stronger wave could start to dominate the pattern? What wave are we talking about? We're looking at the wave in the northeast Pacific. That's the feature that digs into the Southeast. If that can trend stronger (or is stronger than modeled) ensembles favor a more benchmark low pressure. Probably due to the fact that the northern stream wouldn't dominate it as much, phasing would be weaker. But that's what we need to keep it from cutting. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Spread em: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: We're looking at the wave in the northeast Pacific. That's the feature that digs into the Southeast. If that can trend stronger (or is stronger than modeled) ensembles favor a more benchmark low pressure. Probably due to the fact that the northern stream wouldn't dominate it as much, phasing would be weaker. But that's what we need to keep it from cutting. Ok, thanks for that clarification. That makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Ukie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: We're looking at the wave in the northeast Pacific. That's the feature that digs into the Southeast. If that can trend stronger (or is stronger than modeled) ensembles favor a more benchmark low pressure. Probably due to the fact that the northern stream wouldn't dominate it as much, phasing would be weaker. But that's what we need to keep it from cutting. And if none of that works, we know the storm will exit the continent at same latitude it came on shore at. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I'll bet OPs shift east tomorrow when that SW is sampled. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll bet OPs shift east tomorrow when that SW is sampled. And the ens will follow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: So much time left for this one. And the significance of that time left, cannot be overstated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Ukie? 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: We're looking at the wave in the northeast Pacific. That's the feature that digs into the Southeast. If that can trend stronger (or is stronger than modeled) ensembles favor a more benchmark low pressure. Probably due to the fact that the northern stream wouldn't dominate it as much, phasing would be weaker. But that's what we need to keep it from cutting. Hmm John was saying that trending weaker would send it east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: And the ens will follow lol. Vice versa...ensembles already there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hmm John was saying that trending weaker would send it east... Maybe he meant the phase being weaker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Vice versa...ensembles already there They’ll go even further se if so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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