ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 18z EPS actually looks a bit west of the 12z run. I’m on my phone so can’t really toggle but eyeball glance looks west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The part about the NAVGEM being part of the "big three" is what makes me think it's just a trolling deal. Anyone who follows weather models even the slightest bit here knows the NAVGEM is not a legit model for the kind of storms we are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 May end up even seeing a tropopause fold with this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 18z euro runs doing off hr things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 18z EPS actually looks a bit west of the 12z run. I’m on my phone so can’t really toggle but eyeball glance looks west To me looks like more members east at 18z, but the members that are west at 18z are farther west than 12z… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, PhineasC said: The part about the NAVGEM being part of the "big three" is what makes me think it's just a trolling deal. Anyone who follows weather models even the slightest bit here knows the NAVGEM is not a legit model for the kind of storms we are talking about. I wouldn’t necessarily characterize it as trolling but instead excessive optimism for a specific weather outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, bristolri_wx said: To me looks like more members east at 18z, but the members that are west at 18z are farther west than 12z… Yeah I’d agree with that. The spread looks like it’s larger on the 18z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: To me looks like more members east at 18z, but the members that are west at 18z are farther west than 12z… No goal posts until this time tomorrow night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I havent been following this storm, is it likely to blow up into a decent nor'easter with high winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, LansingWeather said: I havent been following this storm, is it likely to blow up into a decent nor'easter with high winds? Depends who you ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, LansingWeather said: I havent been following this storm, is it likely to blow up into a decent nor'easter with high winds? Big snows for Puerto Rico on the UKMET, probably. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 That looks pretty brutal. Thankfully I'll have no pack left to preserve at that point anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, LansingWeather said: I havent been following this storm, is it likely to blow up into a decent nor'easter with high winds? In Lansing , Michigan? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 18z EPS snow maps looks very similar. Continues highest probs Berkshires to SVT, and Whites into adjacent Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 18z EPS actually looks a bit west of the 12z run. I’m on my phone so can’t really toggle but eyeball glance looks west All over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, powderfreak said: 18z EPS snow maps looks very similar. Continues highest probs Berkshires to SVT, and Whites into adjacent Maine. That’s a tic SE of 12zzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That’s a tic SE of 12zzzz No it’s not. It’s the same or at least increased the westward side. Upstate NY saw biggest changes. Here’s 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Not bad here on any of those. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 That map matches the much maligned SV 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 13 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Big snows for Puerto Rico on the UKMET, probably. Ha just curious on the swell aspect of the potential storm. There hasnt really been a decent nor'easter in a while. 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: In Lansing , Michigan? I no longer reside there, it always sucked seeing you guys get blasted with nothing in MI though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 16 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 18z EPS snow maps looks very similar. Continues highest probs Berkshires to SVT, and Whites into adjacent Maine. Ha…already 85% probs for 6+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No, I get what you mean and I was always leery of that..its just frustrating to see it actually breaking that way in a season in which very little has gone right for MBY. Obviously I know the ens mean is usually a useful tool, but like any other, the upper bounds of its utility is the degree to which we can deploy it effectively. That is forever a work in progress. I was obviously speaking from emotion to a degree; I admitted that. 3 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said: We were told the ens were utterly useless for this type of storm. Don't think we should be getting excited cause they're not running over central PA. Can't have it both ways when they suddenly jack ones backyard Reading comprehension is a very effective tool if you possess it and know how to use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 We’ve likely seen the farthest extent of the west “overcompensation” and ensuing will be a collapse back SE. How much … ? I think the low-level cold air that’s being delivered on Saturday is probably not getting properly resolved at this particular range in the models. So whatever happens I would probably stall any kind of warm sector intrusion - that would be my educated guess for 132 hour system. Whether that means holding on to snow longer holding on a mix longer going over to some ice or just being a 32° cold rain after front white wall, notwithstanding The other area of sensitivity for me revolves around what is going on with the NAO in Friday system as wave brakes and it sits there I don’t understand how that thing is going to pull out to the north that readily if the NAO really does flip signs, which is what the models have been selling the last day Plus the things I talked about earlier in the day regarding what’s really going to get relayed off the Pacific Ocean starting tomorrow and then again at 60 hours. Those are some leap out reasons why I said I am by no way sold on any of those positions in New York State 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 13 minutes ago, powderfreak said: No it’s not. It’s the same or at least increased the westward side. Upstate NY saw biggest changes. Here’s 12z. Actually that 18z is better in my back yard, than it was at 12z…so for me it trended SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 28 minutes ago, PhineasC said: The part about the NAVGEM being part of the "big three" is what makes me think it's just a trolling deal. Anyone who follows weather models even the slightest bit here knows the NAVGEM is not a legit model for the kind of storms we are talking about. 23 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: I wouldn’t necessarily characterize it as trolling but instead excessive optimism for a specific weather outcome. It's delusional is what it is. The grandiose, unrealistic ideas that come with every post is nuts. Getting the NAV out of your top 3 would be a good start to reform 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 11 minutes ago, weathafella said: That map matches the much maligned SV I’ll take my 12-15 and run on that. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said: No but things are contradicting. Are we to use the ens at this lead time for this type of storm or not? My whole point was that they seemed clueless bc they were simply chasing the OP, but this is the first suite that they aren't...that is all. I don't expect a foot of snow. Jesus, starting to think the less one says on here the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 12 minutes ago, weathafella said: That map matches the much maligned SV Too generous here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: My whole point was that they seemed clueless bc they were simply chasing the OP, but this is the first suite that they aren't...that is all. I don't expect a foot of snow. Jesus, starting to think the less one says on here the better. Lol yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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