JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Let's all just enjoy the foot of snow that the "GEFS mean" model gave us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 A lot of angst this morning for the GFS, I guess some forget how the models have performed all winter from this lead. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Definitely snowier at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Let's all just enjoy the foot of snow that the "GEFS mean" model gave us. I'm going to enjoy my skunk stripe. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Starting to think we would all benefit from being 5 posted during the winter. lol 4 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Chrisrotary12 said: Starting to think we would all benefit from being 5 posted during the winter. lol You would have to pick your spots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: I'm going to enjoy my skunk stripe. Watch this slide back se to a scooter jack while the wolfie rips weenies heads off. DISCLAIMER: this is just a joke and not a forecast 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Are you new here? No but things are contradicting. Are we to use the ens at this lead time for this type of storm or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: I'm going to enjoy my skunk stripe. What did this show at 12Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 10 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Yeah--Pete and Mitch ftw kinda like my spot too for that run, still needs a bit more SE tho, but I take, even though I won't be there... where I'm going in GA now calling for 6-8 for Sun/Mon, crazy, gonna be a nice ride down this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, BombsAway1288 said: No but things are contradicting. Are we to use the ens at this lead time for this type of storm or not? generally yes, but in the past some have observed them to be some degree less effective for super-dynamic storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, mikem81 said: What did this show at 12Z? Less along the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Starting to think we would all benefit from being 5 posted during the winter. lol Ha. The circus is more entertaining when the clowns are present though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, mikem81 said: What did this show at 12Z? it moved noticeably east from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, PhineasC said: it moved noticeably east from 12z. Thats why I wanted to know. Still need another 50-100 miles SE.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 11 minutes ago, dryslot said: Bleeding has stopped. Blood drying like last episode of Mayor of Kingstown ? We take it back from the prisoners Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: I'm going to enjoy my skunk stripe. The delineation of snowfall distribution on that map is ridiculous. The totals are not necessarily off but the way they are distributed is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 51 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: To the tic Toc you don’t stop .. to the tic tock you don’t quit You remember that ..lol... like me, you must be old 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: The delineation of snowfall distribution on that map is ridiculous. The totals are not necessarily off but the way they are distributed is. Yeah, way way way too narrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Hard to believe these highs can't suppress the storm to the coast. But I guess the west "H" on the map isn't really an organized high pressure and is just transient cold air that the storm can easily push out of the way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 17 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Maybe but If there are a few rogue bermuda members which have close to 0% chance of panning out, why not remove them to get a better picture/mean? We’d have to throw out the ones over BUF too if we did that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: MHT-Berks jack on GEFS heh... if the GEF mean ( relative to this one run cycle ) is really "off shore" we blue bomb almost to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: The delineation of snowfall distribution on that map is ridiculous. The totals are not necessarily off but the way they are distributed is. The whole stripe needs to shift NW just looking at the panels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, RDRY said: Hard to believe these highs can't suppress the storm to the coast. But I guess the west "H" on the map isn't really an organized high pressure and is just transient cold air that the storm can push out of the way. It's true/understood your sentiment there... I mean, in a vacuum if one saw that they'd be calling the national guard ... That's actually a K.U. check-list chart there. It has the 24 hour antecedent deep CAA in New England, with exit S/W... The look of higher PP N... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 16 minutes ago, dryslot said: I'm going to enjoy my skunk stripe. Sandy Hook NJ is probably 95% rain on the 18z GFS. StormVista says 12+ StormVista is the champion of the clowns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We’d have to throw out the ones over BUF too if we did that. Isn’t BUF much more likely than bermuda though? I know cherry picking defeats the purpose of the ens and at d4, any member is plausible to a certain degree/percentage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I'm thinking my met in Connecticut is riding the GFS camp. His forecast right now for Monday is heavy snow turning into Heavy Rain with a couple of inches of snow... But he did say at the end that things could change as there are still 4/5 days until this storm. Not looking at the ensembles I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, eduggs said: Sandy Hook NJ is probably 95% rain on the 18z GFS. StormVista says 12+ StormVista is the champion of the clowns. Those are the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said: I'm thinking my met in Connecticut is riding the GFS camp. His forecast right now for Monday is heavy snow turning into Heavy Rain with a couple of inches of snow... But he did say at the end that things could change as there are still 4/5 days until this storm. Not looking at the ensembles I guess Who is your met and do you have him all to yourself? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, eduggs said: Sandy Hook NJ is probably 95% rain on the 18z GFS. StormVista says 12+ StormVista is the champion of the clowns. Thats not the gfs clown map though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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