CT Rain Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: It’s not super far from being a 12/16/07 type coastal. If you recall, that was originally supposed to track into BUF but the high got better and eventually we got a triple point over SE MA…and of course the big snow thump. Yeah the antecedent airmass is pretty tasty. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Yeah the antecedent airmass is pretty tasty. After you just hammered snow to heavy rain on air 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: After you just hammered snow to heavy rain on air Yeah... looks like heavy snow to heavy rain right now. If the antecedent airmass sucked it would be brief snow to rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: After you just hammered snow to heavy rain on air How dare he not forecast what he wants to happen 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, CT Rain said: Yeah... looks like heavy snow to heavy rain right now. If the antecedent airmass sucked it would be brief snow to rain. Or if it didn’t it would be all heavy snow. All options equal and all on table . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Or if it didn’t it would be all heavy snow. All options equal and all on table . this makes no sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: this makes no sense Whiskey 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: this makes no sense Are you new here? 1 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Or if it didn’t it would be all heavy snow. All options equal and all on table . They're not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 It’s annoying how consistently stubborn the inland runner idea is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 GEFS offshore, look better 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: They're not. Diet Coke 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: GEFS offshore, look better Are you new here? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: GEFS offshore, look better much better still some west but nice move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Are you new here? Are you confused here? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Toss the ensembles? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, ineedsnow said: much better still some west but nice move The mean is run from my basement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, dryslot said: Toss the ensembles? I just find value in the fact the trend reversed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Toss the ensembles? tossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Cocked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 MHT-Berks jack on GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 58 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The couple well east don't phase, which skews the mean. Yup. Take those means and heave them. IIRC I think Steve knows how to remove ens members on weathermodels and effectively create a true-er mean. I’ll have to find out how. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: MHT-Berks jack on GEFS Yeah--Pete and Mitch ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Based on the qpf total here, about half would come from the thump so it could be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yup. Take those means and heave them. IIRC I think Steve knows how to remove ens members on weathermodels and effectively create a true-er mean. I’ll have to find out how. Someone smarter than me would probably say that's not an appropriate use of the tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 We were told the ens were utterly useless for this type of storm. Don't think we should be getting excited cause they're not running over central PA. Can't have it both ways when they suddenly jack ones backyard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, BombsAway1288 said: We were told the ens were utterly useless for this type of storm. Don't think we should be getting excited cause they're not running over central PA. Can't have it both ways when they suddenly jack ones backyard Are you new here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, JC-CT said: Someone smarter than me would probably say that's not an appropriate use of the tool. Maybe but If there are a few rogue bermuda members which have close to 0% chance of panning out, why not remove them to get a better picture/mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I just find value in the fact the trend reversed. Bleeding has stopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Maybe but If there are a few rogue bermuda members which have close to 0% chance of panning out, why not remove them to get a better picture/mean? I'm not sure...probably because whatever is making them do that isn't a 0% probability...and it's even more likely that some toned down version of the perturbation that is making them do that is not a 0% probability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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