JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: One reason to remain somewhat optimistic for more snow is that the antecedent airmass is strong, so if that high holds on just a shade longer, you prob get disproportional return on the snowfall in the positive direction. You can even see it on the some of the ensemble members. Some of the ones that hold onto the high just a smidge more thump 8-12" in a pretty large area over SNE. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: One reason to remain somewhat optimistic for more snow is that the antecedent airmass is strong, so if that high holds on just a shade longer, you prob get disproportional return on the snowfall in the positive direction. You can even see it on the some of the ensemble members. Some of the ones that hold onto the high just a smidge more thump 8-12" in a pretty large area over SNE. probably why the WPC snow progs for 4+ look good all the way from VA up to EMA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: One reason to remain somewhat optimistic for more snow is that the antecedent airmass is strong, so if that high holds on just a shade longer, you prob get disproportional return on the snowfall in the positive direction. You can even see it on the some of the ensemble members. Some of the ones that hold onto the high just a smidge more thump 8-12" in a pretty large area over SNE. Yup. I said this to the NYC forum...the position of the high too is not terrible if the system is taking say a 190-010 trajectory up the coast...you can hold an 040-060 wind if that high slows down on its departure just a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: One reason to remain somewhat optimistic for more snow is that the antecedent airmass is strong, so if that high holds on just a shade longer, you prob get disproportional return on the snowfall in the positive direction. You can even see it on the some of the ensemble members. Some of the ones that hold onto the high just a smidge more thump 8-12" in a pretty large area over SNE. Rays Narcan map even had half a foot here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Ensemble mean, wins....flawless victory. Yeah, I give up. Ensemble means all the way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: One reason to remain somewhat optimistic for more snow is that the antecedent airmass is strong, so if that high holds on just a shade longer, you prob get disproportional return on the snowfall in the positive direction. You can even see it on the some of the ensemble members. Some of the ones that hold onto the high just a smidge more thump 8-12" in a pretty large area over SNE. Can someone explain what causes the LP to jump in an almost NW direction from the NC coast? Ive literally never seen that track when the LP starts out so far south. Does the northern stream phase too early and pull the LP inland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, mikem81 said: Can someone explain what causes the LP to jump in an almost NW direction from the NC coast? Ive literally never seen that track when the LP starts out so far south. Does the northern stream phase too early and pull the LP inland? yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Can someone explain what causes the LP to jump in an almost NW direction from the NC coast? Ive literally never seen that track when the LP starts out so far south. Does the northern stream phase too early and pull the LP inland? Early February 2010 was the classic example. The final insult to us New Englanders that year. Hempstead might have done well on that, I don't recall. The wildest thing about that storm was that Byram, a neighborhood in the far SW corner of Greenwich CT, got 19", while downtown Greenwich, 3 miles away, got 7". Yikes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The lowest Euro ensemble mean pressure looks displaced someone East of where I'd eyeball the center point of the individual lows, I think some of the lows that hug the coast may be stronger (baroclinicity between CAD and warm oceans?) and displaces the lowest mean pressure from the average location of the ensemble lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 11 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Can someone explain what causes the LP to jump in an almost NW direction from the NC coast? Ive literally never seen that track when the LP starts out so far south. Does the northern stream phase too early and pull the LP inland? Usually we see phasing trend a touch "sloppier" in the nearer term, which would actually work to our advantage here...but knowing this season, the two TV's will fit like a glove in this case, since that works against us. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Early February 2010 was the classic example. The final insult to us New Englanders that year. Hempstead might have done well on that, I don't recall. The wildest thing about that storm was that Byram, a neighborhood in the far SW corner of Greenwich CT, got 19", while downtown Greenwich, 3 miles away, got 7". Yikes. I believe that was the late month retro that slammed eastern NE with wind and rain. Like Burlington was raining while NYC piled up snow. Watching that rain snow line edge east in CT was incredibly protracted and painful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: The lowest Euro ensemble mean pressure looks displaced someone East of where I'd eyeball the center point of the individual lows, I think some of the lows that hug the coast may be stronger (baroclinicity between CAD and warm oceans?) and displaces the lowest mean pressure from the average location of the ensemble lows. The couple well east don't phase, which skews the mean. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: I believe that was the late month retro that slammed eastern NE with wind and rain. Like Burlington was raining while NYC piled up snow. Watching that rain snow line edge east in CT was incredibly protracted and painful. Yes we did extremely well in NYC area bu that storm came in off the ocean and then turned NW once it was north of LI (sort of cut through CT) very bizarre and rare.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Ocean storm closer on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Ocean storm closer on gfs Never matters with respect to Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Never matters with respect to Monday Well something is causing a pretty sizeable jump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Well something is causing a pretty sizeable jump Yea, I hear it finally ticked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Southern stream getting a tiny kick from the feature off Baja through 66? Ocean storm a tad slower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 18z GFS couple tics east from 12z so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Seems a little colder too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 To the tic Toc you don’t stop .. to the tic tock you don’t quit 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 18z ggem did something similar to the end of its run fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 It was a little faster then 12z and got the vortmax a couple tics further east before it turned north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 don't remember ever seeing the GFS show what looks like gravity wave convection off the coast, would this aid in redevelopment off the coast should the primary move more SE? also looks like H7 is closed off above the SLP this run, what happened to the nav? it lost the blizzard? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Seems a little colder too. The features in the north Atlantic seem to have shifted a tad westward, but alas, pretty much rock steady run after run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: It was a little faster then 12z and got the vortmax a couple tics further east before it turned north. yeah, but offsetting that was that the trough was a little more negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: The features in the north Atlantic seem to have shifted a tad westward. If this high could just hold some ground, it would be almost like a SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 It was getting squeezed to the NE as it was gaining lat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If this high could just hold some ground, it would be almost like a SWFE. It’s not super far from being a 12/16/07 type coastal. If you recall, that was originally supposed to track into BUF but the high got better and eventually we got a triple point over SE MA…and of course the big snow thump. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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