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Monitoring a potential important TV to East Coastal storm: Jan 17


Typhoon Tip
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3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It could easily keep trending westward. Might have to worry about coastal flooding/strong winds over snow. 

Pretty strong low on Euro

 

Yeh it aint going any further west...you'd need wholesale changes in the evolution down in the SE and I don't see that happening.  The capture scenario the Euro has from the MA on north is about as extreme as you will get so we'd need to see the system dig way way less over the TN valley or something to get this to be an OH Valley or WRN PA track

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not getting into it. I'm sure we won't see eye to eye and I'm speaking out of frustration. Most people get what I mean.

I can agree that ensembles may be rather useless in this sense. Maybe this sort of logic can be applied to every storm but in the sense of this event ensemble means and individuals and their outputs really aren't going to tell us something we can't figure out on our own. Each solution/output is essentially tied into the evolution of the upper-levels. 

You can have 48/48 (whatever the number is) ensembles all show a track through the Hudson Valley...now something like that may yield extremely high confidence in such a scenario unfolding but that probably wouldn't be the case here. That is essentially tied into how the model is evolving the upper-levels. The next set of ensembles could go in the entirely opposite direction if the evolution is handled differently. 

All in all IMO ensembles really aren't going to tell us something we can't figure out by applying science/meteorology 

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