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Monitoring a potential important TV to East Coastal storm: Jan 17


Typhoon Tip
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1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

So is Monday's though

Yeah that shortwave down south seems to just be able to slow down if it needs to and wait for the confluence to lift out. This will probably still be a pretty far west run....but I'm hoping it's a little east of 00z....any eastward ticks will help.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that shortwave down south seems to just be able to slow down if it needs to and wait for the confluence to lift out. This will probably still be a pretty far west run....but I'm hoping it's a little east of 00z....any eastward ticks will help.

the slowing of that shortwave is what has caused the major adjustment, at least from what I can tell. gives it more time to start the phase further west. Maybe something will change in future runs, i dunno

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Shotwave #3 looks to be digging more this run too....which will send our southern shortwave straight north...so I bet this run ends up west of 00z.

yeah, certainly up at BOS latitude. Maybe we can get that northern shortwave to slow down or something or something

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Comparing between two different sources so resolution could be a factor but through at least 114 there don't seem to be major differences at H5 between the GFS/Euro...they actually appear to be pretty damn similar...not just with the southern s/w but the one digging in the northern stream too 

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