George001 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Ok if we look at the guidance all we need is a 50 mile shift se on the euro ensemble mean, that’s really not that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: GEFS? No idea. doesn't look like the GEFS I'm looking at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, JC-CT said: thats 6z. 12z is close to a clean whiff, just clips eastern areas Yeah, just had some with the text on the model graphic Who cares what that model shows 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, JC-CT said: doesn't look like the GEFS I'm looking at The 12z GEFS i have show a lot of interior lows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, JC-CT said: What model is it Ellie McPherson 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, MaineJayhawk said: Yeah, just had some with the text on the model graphic Who cares what that model shows well yeah, except that I will say that it's rare to have it too amped - it definitely has a progressive bias. So it being amped before was a flag. Glad it's back to whiffing tbh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: The 12z GEFS i have show a lot of interior lows. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Ginxy clearly you can see a more amped potential with the mean ticking west along with members clustering on west side and reduction of stuff near and east of center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, JC-CT said: well yeah, except that I will say that it's rare to have it too amped - it definitely has a progressive bias. So it being amped before was a flag. Glad it's back to whiffing tbh Yeah if the navy is more NW than other models that can’t be ignored, it isn’t a useless model. I’d argue it’s alot more useful than the gfs because it has a clear and consistent bias that can be controlled for by the forecaster, where as the gfs is erratic. That’s why when I saw the Navy hugging the coast I started to get really nervous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWilly Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 It looks like neither scenario is going to work out for me so ill pray for an inland runner I suppose. Just a bit annoying to have a rainstorm at the height of winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Am I assuming the bottom is the oldest run and top newest? Assuming makes an ass out of you not me? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, George001 said: Yeah if the navy is more NW than other models that can’t be ignored, it isn’t a useless model. I’d argue it’s alot more useful than the gfs because it has a clear and consistent bias that can be controlled for by the forecaster, where as the gfs is erratic. That’s why when I saw the Navy hugging the coast I started to get really nervous. it did just move like 1000 miles at day 5 in one cycle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Ginxy clearly you can see a more amped potential with the mean ticking west along with members clustering on west side and reduction of stuff near and east of center. Nice thanks. Hoping we thumpy thump. On to the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, George001 said: Yeah if the navy is more NW than other models that can’t be ignored, it isn’t a useless model. I’d argue it’s alot more useful than the gfs because it has a clear and consistent bias that can be controlled for by the forecaster, where as the gfs is erratic. That’s why when I saw the Navy hugging the coast I started to get really nervous. No one wants to see their Navy over land. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Navgem is out to sea 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 navgem is way east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 At this juncture it's almost worthless or even pointless as to what the SLP tracks are. Until there is a much better handle of the upper-levels and the evolution of key features we essentially know what kind of look is going to yield farther west solutions and what kind of look is going to yield farther east solutions. But with this said I think we should actually have a very good idea of what will transpire probably with the 12z runs Friday or certainly with the 0z guidance. At this point not only the sampling of the energy will be there but how the energy is evolving as its digging into the Tennessee Valley will be known. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Lol....George has everyone looking at nogaps..... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 the GFS sucks, just 2 and a half days ago it barely even had a low, now it has a blizzard for Montreal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, George001 said: the GFS sucks, just 2 and a half days ago it barely even had a low, now it has a blizzard for Montreal. They’re awful if they can’t show it day 8? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: They can fail in potent setups like this. I've found that to be true more often than not. Par for the course for ensembles they have much too little input difference than op’s to account for the realistic future track options Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 CMC is brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Par for the course for ensembles they have much too little input difference than op’s to account for the realistic future tracks Definitely always been true for the GEFS. Gets even worse around 84-60 hours, spread is always too small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, George001 said: the GFS sucks, just 2 and a half days ago it barely even had a low, now it has a blizzard for Montreal. You can't totally just use SLP as a means to justify this but the difference really lies within H5. The potential was actually there on the 6z run from Jan 10 but certainly it wasn't anything screaming noteworthy. The difference really comes down to how the initial wave of energy was being handled as it moved into the U.S. The GFS initially had this energy going from the upper-Midwest across the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. Since then the GFS has been much more bullish of driving this s/w through the Missouri Valley into the Tennessee Valley. I wouldn't use this as an example or a means to say the GFS sucks...this just goes to show how complex the pattern is and how even subtle changes whether it's strength of ridging/troughing how each of these features evolve, and what happens to s/w energy during these evolutions. At this point the s/w of interest was probably over who the hell knows. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: CMC is brutal. Notable that the GFS and CMC have been in tandem on the Friday and Monday storms now for several cycles. Subtle differences but very similar outcomes/tracks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: CMC is brutal. Not a good sign since it usually has us shoveling the most snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I still want to see overnight and tomorrow what the leading and trailing systems look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Not a good sign since it usually has us shoveling the most snow. 988mb Over State College to Syracuse. Congrats Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Not a good sign since it usually has us shoveling the most snow. It sends a lot of cold storms up our rectal regions too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Who cares what the cmc has. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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