RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: I just meant they didn't travel straight up the hudson like the OP does. Yea I know what you meant. I wonder if we toss the SE outliers though if the mean would track up the hudson. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, JC-CT said: Western is relative True. Chicago probably doesn’t get into the CCB. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Still a pretty big frotn ender for the interior on Ukie. That would be my hope right now...that this ends up more like a BOS track and we get some real goods on the front end. Not if it washes all of SE Mass snow away in warm sector . Not wanted 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Still a pretty big frotn ender for the interior on Ukie. That would be my hope right now...that this ends up more like a BOS track and we get some real goods on the front end. Yeah, was gonna say...it's still not the GFS going over Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think it still looks shitty verbatim, but I am biased by locale obviously. Yea, well....this will be better than last Friday for me, so its all about persepctive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea I know what you meant. I wonder if we toss the SE outliers though if the mean would track up the hudson. Well that's why as I mentioned this morning, I usually just look at the individual LP centers and do a rough median/mean of those in my head, rather than look at the actual mslp. Kind of an ensemble of positions, rather than mbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Not if it washes all of SE Mass snow away in warm sector . Not wanted We might all get warm sectored....that's why we gotta hope this goes more over BOS or SE MA/Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ukie is poop. eastern PA to Albany. I know the ski areas definitely need base but I would almost take all rain over 6 inches of snow changing to rain. it’s still an odd track so I suppose we could still see this cut all the way to Buffalo. A little more sampling to ingest tonight so maybe we get a better idea of which systems will be stronger or weaker and perhaps get our coveted tug east to save the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, well....this will be better than last Friday for me, so its all about persepctive. Will it? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 One positive in regards to this storm is that the arctic floodgates open up after this storm changing the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: One positive in regards to this storm is that the arctic floodgates open up after this storm changing the pattern. Pattern changed on New Years, check last nights temperature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: Will it? LOL. Yes. I will take 5" of paste here followed by rain, over 6" of pixie dust that evaporates 24 hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The outcome seems simple actually. Friday's system could've acted like a 50/50 had we had some sort of block up north. It could've created enough confluence to have the following system shift east. At this point I'm hoping Monday's storm shifts further west and introduces a wave breaking event that will plunge the NAO and give us a much better setup next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I will take this set up over 5" of pixie dust and an I95 orgy any day...said it last week, and am saying it now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 If we were in Dubois PA we would be on tenterhooks, waiting for Lucy to pull the football away. Things look dismal now, but it is very rare for a forecasted track to remain set-in-stone over five days...Does that mean Cleveland should be getting ready? Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I will take this set up over 5" of pixie dust and an I95 orgy any day...said it last week, and am saying it now. You'd have a decent pack if it didn't warm up. It wasn't an I-95 orgy either. That was a luck band from Boston +/- 10 miles either side to CT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: One positive in regards to this storm is that the arctic floodgates open up after this storm changing the pattern. They’ve been open for a week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCWarrior Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I know the ski areas definitely need base but I would almost take all rain over 6 inches of snow changing to rain. it’s still an odd track so I suppose we could still see this cut all the way to Buffalo. A little more sampling to ingest tonight so maybe we get a better idea of which systems will be stronger or weaker and perhaps get our coveted tug east to save the interior. Unless this really goes west I don't think ski country is in any danger. Everyone could use a nice heavy water content snowfall and a refreeze to create a more sustainable base in the woods. It's all about the base! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We might all get warm sectored....that's why we gotta hope this goes more over BOS or SE MA/Cape. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Go Kart Mozart said: If we were in Dubois PA we would be on tenterhooks, waiting for Lucy to pull the football away. Things look dismal now, but it is very rare for a forecasted track to remain set-in-stone over five days...Does that mean Cleveland should be getting ready? Maybe. Well, it doesn't have to stay set in stone...it could go from Albany to Berkshires lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 27 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Dude...where have you been for the last 2+ years? His post was bullshit go look back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You'd have a decent pack if it didn't warm up. It wasn't an I-95 orgy either. That was a luck band from Boston +/- 10 miles either side to CT. Same thing....jesus, who cares. I95 in Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 And then there is the 6z NAVGEORGE 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I count 10 GEFS members that would warm sector me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: And then there is the 6z NAVGEORGE George drew that up. He is the Picasso of the weather world! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Can we talk about how utterly useless the ensembles appear to be right now? All they have done is slowly chase the OP on all 3 major suites. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I count 10 GEFS members that would warm sector me. 1/3rd seeing as the GEFS are usually non dispersive from the OP not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Ginx snewx said: 1/3rd seeing as the GEFS are usually non dispersive from the OP not bad GEFS have been pretty dispersive from the OP with respect to this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: GEFS have been pretty dispersive from the OP with respect to this system. GEFS are still not upgraded, still running the old GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Can we talk about how utterly useless the ensembles appear to be right now? All they have done is slowly chase the OP on all 3 major suites. I believe that the ensemble mean is nearly useless. Do a Google of the Golden Mean Fallacy. The clusters give the best hints, and there was always a significant west-clusterF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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