78Blizzard Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The GEFS is looking like a carbon copy of 06z at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 4:25 PM, dryslot said: And wind. Expand This GFS run would have it all. Areas hit hard as snow may end with rain and a line of thunderstorms. With H7 closing off so far west there would be a mean dry slot and probably would see a fine line of convection form right along the dry slot given the dynamics and steep lapse rates. Obviously too early for these sort of details but this solution would give it all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 4:27 PM, dryslot said: Shift that all to the east some, Plenty of time for more changes, The one on friday will play a big role in this. Expand Yeah if it consolidates more east, that mid-level stuff ends up here. It’s just disjoined conveyors so in reality for most folks it’s a short duration heavy precip event on SE flow and then firehouse keeps moving northeast. Need to consolidate it to have any chance of a cold conveyor belt or mid-level snows hitting New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Pure APPs runners are not common so I am not convinced we are looking at that outcome right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 4:23 PM, weatherwiz said: The coastal flooding could be pretty wild with this. Expand Full moon. It’s actually the January Wolfmoon so we know which CTposter will be howling. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 4:30 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: Full moon. It’s actually the January Wolfmoon so we know which CTposter will be howling. Expand ...good one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 3:28 PM, Typhoon Tip said: I just went through 7 pages of this thread in deference to other's, thought/opinions/ analysis... and arriving at the end, I have seen almost 0 analysis at all. Not one deeper read into the very modeling that is 'triggering' the vitriol. No history/performance, no bias applications... No comparatives to other guidance, weighting those biases ... back and forth, whereby to synthesize valid, objective - I mean nothing. And, saying, 'x y z model looks like an inland track,' only, does not constitute substantive analysis. LOL - we get it that there's not enough sugar in your porridge. Expand Dude...where have you been for the last 2+ years? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Reminiscent of the storm in early February 1995. Caribou got 18 inches. Boston got a nice front ended of 6+ nearly completely obliterated in the warm sector. This one looks even more extreme. Some of may lose this one but Luke may finally get his jack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 4:27 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: @George001Costanza...how's the new navy look? Expand It sucks, I’m losing hope for an all snow event here. Still worth tracking though, even if it turns to rain eventually it’s possible we get a good amount of snow first like March 2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 4:29 PM, 78Blizzard said: The GEFS is looking like a carbon copy of 06z at this point. Expand Yeah, still indicating a track right up the Hudson. Which is east of the OP, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 4:36 PM, JC-CT said: Yeah, still indicating a track right up the Hudson. Which is east of the OP, at least. Expand Actually, kind of goes from NYC to Hartford. Anyway, it's at least in a position where positive things can happen over the next few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 It's pretty remarkable how close the SLP track through central PA has been on the operational GFS the past 3 cycles...and even that isn't a huge jump from yesterday's 18z run. So aggravating that we only seem to see this sort of run to run consistency when it's an inland runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 3:56 PM, JC-CT said: Probably not the best way to encourage a positive conversation, but I'm going to let it go. Expand What? How/why is "look at it, please" off-putting? I'm just encouraging the reader to so - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Part of the issue too is you're already seeing the jet streak round the base of the trough across Louisiana/Mississippi. If that could hold off until like Alabama/Georgia that would probably vastly increase the likelihood of shifting things (SLP, 850, 700) farther south and east. Guess this falls into the category of becoming too amped too early? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Ukie is poop. eastern PA to Albany. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 4:41 PM, CoastalWx said: Ukie is poop. eastern PA to Albany. Expand where are you getting it this early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 4:38 PM, JC-CT said: Actually, kind of goes from NYC to Hartford. Anyway, it's at least in a position where positive things can happen over the next few days. Expand This will change but majority are NW of the mean: DISCLAIMER: This is not a forecast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 4:42 PM, JC-CT said: where are you getting it this early? Expand Through work. It doesn't matter....downright hideous. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 4:44 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: This will change but majority are NW of the mean: DISCLAIMER: This is not a forecast Expand Nice forecast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 4:44 PM, CoastalWx said: Through work. It doesn't matter....downright hideous. Expand Well at least it's consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Thump n slot 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Maybe we can get the best of both worlds out of this pattern, with a mild-medium thump on Friday for eastern areas, and a large thump from Monday's system for Western areas (which received little benefit from the system last Friday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 12z hasn’t been helpful other than increasing confidence in a western solution. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 4:44 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: This will change but majority are NW of the mean: Expand I just meant they didn't travel straight up the hudson like the OP does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 4:41 PM, CoastalWx said: Ukie is poop. eastern PA to Albany. Expand Finally caved... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 4:42 PM, JC-CT said: where are you getting it this early? Expand Pivotal has it already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Still a pretty big frotn ender for the interior on Ukie. That would be my hope right now...that this ends up more like a BOS track and we get some real goods on the front end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 4:46 PM, weathafella said: 12z hasn’t been helpful other than increasing confidence in a western solution. Expand Western is relative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 4:27 PM, CoastalWx said: I think it still looks shitty verbatim, but I am biased by locale obviously. Expand On 1/12/2022 at 4:45 PM, tiger_deF said: Maybe we can get the best of both worlds out of this pattern, with a mild-medium thump on Friday for eastern areas, and a large thump from Monday's system for Western areas (which received little benefit from the system last Friday). Expand Friday is not thumping anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 11:38 am it comes out on SV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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