HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Mostly voodoo of yore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Mostly voodoo of yore. It's not even true, period. Outside slider whacks mid California, spins up Colorado low, exits through the Lakes = false Never seen that - garbage. it's not or cannot be construed as a "rule" if it's violated and broken pretty routinely. Clipper, comes in through N Dakota route, exits the MA; as a bomb that clips New England? still = false; it exited the MA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: 'coming through' heh Just trying to extend to objectivity there - not saving anyone's day. It looks like a timing issue more than an overzealous shortwave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: The 540 line is south of me, how can it rain? I;m going 1990s technology and using the Garcia method to forecast snowfall for the next storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Where was that when the Sierra was getting hammered and storms came in over and over in C/N California? Would’ve been great to have them exit the same latitude over here. They did. That’s how DC snowed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 48 minutes ago, JC-CT said: It looks like a timing issue more than an overzealous shortwave Trust me... I showed you the S/W are stronger in the GFS - look at it, please. Now, that might work out that way..sure. But, I have reasons ( also pointed out) why that could be a subtle, albeit important bias. And, they tend to correct toward less when the relay happens off the Pacific. We'll see.. But, I'm not sold on those overnight runs man. no way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: They did. That’s how DC snowed exactly. Met bros tryna discredit a poor old timer . It's not a 100% lock, but even 75% is pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: 'coming through' heh Just trying to extend to objectivity there - not saving anyone's day. Phasing does often end delayed, hence NE...no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: They did. That’s how DC snowed So of the last dozen systems to slam the Sierra one found it’s way there? Ok I guess you’re on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Trust me... I showed you the S/W are stronger in the GFS - look at it, please. Now, that might work out that way..sure. But, I have reasons ( also pointed out) why that could be so. And, they tend to correct toward less when the relay happens off the Pacific. We'll see.. But, I'm not sold on those overnight runs man. no way. Probably not the best way to encourage a positive conversation, but I'm going to let it go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Whineminster said: exactly. Met bros tryna discredit a poor old timer . It's not a 100% lock, but even 75% is pretty good. Lol at 75%. I get it, people want to believe in old school stuff, even bees nests high in trees means big snow year. But call a spade a spade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 10 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Where was that when the Sierra was getting hammered and storms came in over and over in C/N California? Would’ve been great to have them exit the same latitude over here. They got shredded. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 GFS is prob gonna be east of 06z....ULL is slower to exit over Nova Scotia. Not that this thing could go much further west than the 06z GFS had it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Trust me... I showed you the S/W are stronger in the GFS - look at it, please. Now, that might work out that way..sure. But, I have reasons ( also pointed out) why that could be a subtle, albeit important biase. And, they tend to correct toward less when the relay happens off the Pacific. We'll see.. But, I'm not sold on those overnight runs man. no way. I think its also easy to get carried away with the negative inertia of recent trends and lose sight of the fact that even the 00z EURO is a major winter storm outside of I 495. I'm guilty of it myself. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digityman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I just went through 7 pages of this thread in deference to other's, thought/opinions/ analysis... and arriving at the end, I have seen almost 0 analysis at all. Not one deeper read into the very modeling that is 'triggering' the vitriol. No history/performance, no bias applications... No comparatives to other guidance, weighting those biases ... back and forth, whereby to synthesize valid, objective - I mean nothing. And, saying, 'x y z model looks like an inland track,' only, does not constitute substantive analysis. LOL - we get it that there's not enough sugar in your porridge. Not directed at you Tip but I'm going on 10 years of reading this forum and I'm not sure I've seen it worse than it is now. There was a time not long ago, that moderators would crack down on these type of posts. Not sure what happened? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS is prob gonna be east of 06z....ULL is slower to exit over Nova Scotia. Not that this thing could go much further west than the 06z GFS had it. stop the bleeding I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS is prob gonna be east of 06z....ULL is slower to exit over Nova Scotia. Not that this thing could go much further west than the 06z GFS had it. Looks a tic or two east to me at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Yeah this is prob gonna be like 00z....still pretty amped but not quite as much as 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah this is prob gonna be like 00z....still pretty amped but not quite as much as 06z. It's a solid front end thump nw of like BOS to PVD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The trends overnight were not good, and it is very possible this low does run inland. But even if it does, we could still see a few inches of snow before a changeover to rain in eastern areas. I’m not going to give up yet though, it’s not an ideal track but at least we have a low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I think that was decent as far as what we'd hope to see from the GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Yes, A bit better, That's what we want to see, Looks like the bleeding has stopped for now at least on this 12z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Some can back away from the ledge now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Its a actually a hair better than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: It's a solid front end thump nw of like BOS to PVD Yeah those changes early on were enough to hold in the cold a bit better. Stil want to see this not track west of us...but well see if other guidance follow ssuit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah those changes early on were enough to cold in the cold a bit better. Stil want to see this not track west of us...but well see if other guidance follow ssuit. Friday looks to be helping this out, More confluence to the north early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, JC-CT said: It's a solid front end thump nw of like BOS to PVD That’s exactly the most likely scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 looks like a nice sou'easter 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Here’s the thing.. the farther west it snows Friday , the more this shifts Monday east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah those changes early on were enough to hold in the cold a bit better. Stil want to see this not track west of us...but well see if other guidance follow ssuit. You can start to see some minny screw zones show up in downslope areas due to the easterly fetch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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