RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: As bad as the NAM is, its still like an ensemble member capable to spotting a trend....I honestly get nervous when I see it super amped this close in, and that is the truth. Who would have thought the OP GFS would lead the amped charge on a coastal? It's a strange twist of model swapping for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Hey bro, your 1 to 3 coming back? Scooter will troll me to a jackpot. Congrats out east folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It's a strange twist of model swapping for sure. 00z EURO still puts down over a foot of snow in ORH country on the narcan map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 From below 0 temps Saturday morning to rain ? Yikes 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 00z EURO still puts down over a foot of snow in ORH country on the narcan map. Will, what do you make of this? That is not clown algorithm and its usually conservative, but it seems a bit overzealous in this case. The other clown maps are very little... Think it just really likes the antecedent airmass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Will, what do you make of this? That is not clown algorithm and its usually conservative, but it seems a bit overzealous in this case. The other clown maps are very little... Think it just really likes the antecedent airmass? Big east flow against the east slopes? I think that is plausible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Big east flow against the east slopes? I think that is plausible. The 12z ICON even tries to give me a tiny bit of upslope enhancement off the Willimantic valley lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 An ANT favorite 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: An ANT favorite Something tells me this isn’t the late great comedian he refers to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Big east flow against the east slopes? I think that is plausible. I was speaking more to thermals....the usual clown suspects were relatively reserved, but that usually stingy algorithm saw something it liked. I think it speaks to the ample easterly inflow coupled with strong antecedent airmass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Nothing like old timers using myths from 1945 to forecast. Aaahhhh Seee....so it's like this seeee......tell the dame on TV to start swings her tootsies around. Here's looking at you, kid. 13 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: Nothing like old timers using myths from 1945 to forecast. Aaahhhh Seee....so it's like this seeee......tell the dame on TV to start swings her tootsies around. Here's looking at you, kid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Big east flow against the east slopes? I think that is plausible. Yeah if we're getting a storm into NYC with decent antecedent airmass, then i could see a pretty good thump for ORH and other interior locations...esp N of pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Something tells me this isn’t the late great comedian he refers to? Former WBZ met... passed away in 2002 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Former WBZ met... passed away in 2002 Was he Old Mcdonald that had a farm? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 I just went through 7 pages of this thread in deference to other's, thought/opinions/ analysis... and arriving at the end, I have seen almost 0 analysis at all. Not one deeper read into the very modeling that is 'triggering' the vitriol. No history/performance, no bias applications... No comparatives to other guidance, weighting those biases ... back and forth, whereby to synthesize valid, objective - I mean nothing. And, saying, 'x y z model looks like an inland track,' only, does not constitute substantive analysis. LOL - we get it that there's not enough sugar in your porridge. There are lots of reasons to be suspect of this last 12 hours of "unsavory" trends in the guidance. But I'm not sure writing out in laborious detail - which would be necessary to really convey 'the secrets' - ...is there an audience available for that objective analysis? I'll try to keep it brief, an extraordinary difficult undertaking from this particular poster hahaha. But this is long anyway. 1 .. as I have elaborated in frustrating tenor in the past, there is a tendency in most guidance ( particularly the GFS cluster ...) to modestly, almost insidiously over assess S/W mechanics being relayed off the Pacific ocean, over western Canada. This is an aspect I have noticed as a kind of "reversal of fortune," ever since the infamous "Boxing Day Storm" of 2010, when a massively under-scoped relay resulted in one of the more fantastic short range corrections in modern technology of the field. We went from veritably nothing, to a blizzard warning, with < 36 hours leading time for coverage/public awareness. Curiously ... it was on the charts at D 5...7, but then was lost for enough time that even hardened weinershnitzels had moved on with life. Oops. That's my conspiracy rant for the day ... I don't like subtle under the radar, insidious coincidences, and that shift seems connective there. Someone's spiking the Pacific punch, because ultimately ... forecasting is about protecting the public - that's the primary charge/responsibility ..Not entertaining the fringe psychosis of this engagement LOL. So, over-assess = not getting caught with pants down. The reversal of fortune is that we no longer get the goose in the "positive" direction; more so... there are subtle back-offs and ever since, overall, why we consummately see extended range systems invariably, damped by processing when handling D7's --> D4's --> D1's Whether this is done deliberately or not, there is definitely that tendency where the models routinely over-magnify the significance of events out in time. Why does that matter here? 2 .. I was comparing the 00z Euro with the GFS... The GFS is subtly, perhaps crucially, more amplified with two pieces of key mechanics, set to relay off the Pacific about 30 to 36 hours from now: This is important, because these two features, actually sneakily phase while descending over and through the Rockies, while the backside of them (ridge) bulges some, with the advent of a +PNAP tendency. That feeds back on a more intense lower TV total wave space. The GFS then conserves it's own creation, with a stronger initial cyclongenesis that circumstantially curls NW with those climate-ugly paths out in time. 3 .. the actual phase that was more visible to the eye, is not even relayed off the Pacific as of these annotations above ( 54 hours from 00z's cycle). The feature comes in; it, too, may also be suffering from amplitude fixing by the GFS - OR - because it is assessing the lead wave space with these features above, ..that may "blind" itself from seeing the main N/stream wave that is coming on board ~ 72 hours. If these lead features combine and are thus "too strong," they'll resist the more important phasing ... ironically, that was being constructed when this was D7 This is too long even for me.. I think we need to wait until these aspects above are actually a part of the physically materialized sounding, because if there is an over-assessment of their "weight" in the flow ( regardless of whether that is intended or accident), this is a situation where that might backfire and cause a problem. This lead gunk could end up weaker, ...even in the ECMWF. A weaker lead throws less ridging ahead, feeds back less, and ends up more E, for a later N/stream phase. 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Something tells me this isn’t the late great comedian he refers to? Correct...Norm was an old school met who knew his stuff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: I just went through 7 pages of this thread in deference to other's, thought/opinions/ analysis... and arriving at the end, I have seen almost 0 analysis at all. Not one deeper read into the very modeling that is 'triggering' the vitriol. No history/performance, no bias applications... No comparatives to other guidance, weighting those biases ... back and forth, whereby to synthesize valid, objective - I mean nothing. And, saying, 'x y z model looks like an inland track,' only, does not constitute substantive analysis. LOL - we get it that there's not enough sugar in your porridge. There's are lots of reasons to be suspect of this last 12 hours of "unsavory" trends in the guidance. But I'm not sure writing out in laborious detail - which would be necessary to really convey 'the secrets' - ...is there an audience available for that objective analysis? I'll try to keep it brief, an extraordinary difficult undertaking from this particular poster hahaha. But this is long anyway. 1 .. as I have elaborated in frustrating tenor in the past, there is a tendency in most guidance ( particularly the GFS cluster ...) to modestly, almost insidiously over assess S/W mechanics being relayed off the Pacific ocean, over western Canada. This is an aspect I have noticed as a kind of "reversal of fortune," ever since the infamous "Boxing Day Storm" of 2010, when a massively under-scoped relay resulted in one of the more fantastic short range corrections in modern technology of the field. We went from veritably nothing, to a blizzard warning, with < 36 hours leading time for coverage/public awareness. Curiously ... it was on the charts at D 5...7, but then was lost for enough time that even hardened weinershnitzels had moved on with life. Oops. That's my conspiracy rant for the day ... I don't like subtle under the radar, insidious coincidences, and that shift seems connective there. Someone's spiking the Pacific punch, because ultimately ... forecasting is about protecting the public - that's the primary charge/responsibility ..Not entertaining the fringe psychosis of this engagement LOL. So, over-assess = not getting caught with pants down. The reversal of fortune is that we no longer get the goose in the "positive" direction; more so... there are subtle back-offs and ever since, overall, why we consummately see extended range systems invariably, damped by processing when handling D7's --> D4's --> D1's Whether this is done deliberately or not, there is definitely that tendency where the models routinely over-magnify the significance of events out in time. Why does that matter here? 2 .. I was comparing the 00z Euro with the GFS... The GFS is subtly, perhaps crucially, more amplified with two pieces of key mechanics, set to relay off the Pacific about 30 to 36 hours from now: This is important, because these two features, actually sneakily phase descending over, through the Rockies, while the backside of them/ridge bulges some, with the advent of +PNAP tendencies. That feeds back on a more intense lower TV total wave space. The GFS then conserves it's own creation with those climate-ugly curling paths out in time. 3 .. the actual phase that was more visible to the eye, is not even relayed off the Pacific as of these annotations above ( 54 hours from 00z's cycle). The feature comes in; it, too, may also be suffering from amplitude fixing by the GFS - OR - because it is assessing the lead wave space with these features above, ..that may "blind" itself from seeing the main N/stream wave that is coming on board ~ 72 hours. If these features combine and are thus "too strong," they'll resist phasing.. This is too long even for me.. I think we need to wait until these aspects above are actually a part of the physically materialized sounding, because if there is an over-assessment of their "weight" in the flow ( regardless of whether that is intended or accident), this is a situation where that might backfire and cause a problem. This lead gunk could end up weaker, ...even in the ECMWF. A weaker lead throws less ridging ahead, feeds back less, and ends up more E, for a later N/stream phase. Maybe if you had just been here 2 hours ago it would have solved the damn problem 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 TIP coming through in the clutch with HAARP-lite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 9 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Something tells me this isn’t the late great comedian he refers to? He used that rule one time on SNL Update talking about a potential snowstorm. NYC got rain and so they fired him. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Was he Old Mcdonald that had a farm? A former Air Force Cambridge Research Lab met and later a forensics met. I don't know anything about his rule though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: A former Air Force Cambridge Research Lab met and later a forensics met. I don't know anything about his rule though If you follow his analogy, I think you would find that to be more correct then not. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The GGEM will be delayed again today at 12z. 12z Canadian Modeling Delays Subscribe Investigating - Canadian Modeling Center is experiencing problems with their supercomputer, resulting in delays upwards of 2 hours for 12z runs.Jan 12, 10:34 EST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nothing like old timers using myths from 1945 to forecast. Aaahhhh Seee....so it's like this seeee......tell the dame on TV to start swings her tootsies around. Here's looking at you, kid. Can you please elaborate on what you mean by tootsies? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Can you please elaborate on what you mean by tootsies? Not what you are referring to. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 11 minutes ago, JC-CT said: TIP coming through in the clutch with HAARP-lite 'coming through' heh Just trying to extend to objectivity there - not saving anyone's day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: An ANT favorite There’s a few older generation mets that I have heard use that analogy over the years. It’s not completely without merit but certainly not a la la lock it up call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: There’s a few older generation mets that I have heard use that analogy over the years. It’s not completely without merit but certainly not a la la lock it up call. Mostly voodoo of yore. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Mostly voodoo of yore. Where was that when the Sierra was getting hammered and storms came in over and over in C/N California? Would’ve been great to have them exit the same latitude over here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Mostly voodoo of yore. The 540 line is south of me, how can it rain? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now