40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I hope it works out for Jeff...not many areas boned worse than me the past couple of years, but his area def has. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Hazey said: Is it me or has the mid range guidance left a lot to be desired? Some pretty whole sale changes keep happening around hours 120 -168. Noticed it a few times this year. I suppose it's normal but just seems more dramatic shifts as of late. It's normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Ginxy just kidding with ya. I’m just an immature child who finds that funny. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Get inside 90 hrs. How can people forget the dozens and dozens of model failures this year outside 4 days Ops and Ensemble This is exactly my point. I don’t get the urgency right now. It surely can cut, I don’t deny that at all. But saying this is the day we need to see changes…I just don’t agree with that…especially since it’s only been 36 hrs since it’s actually become a threat. It was 0/2 yesterday morning(Friday a whiff and Monday too) on the euro…but now it’s do or die today, for a Monday potential? I’m not buying that at this lead. But that’s just my feeling. Others can lock this up today…I’ll wait and see how it looks come Friday afternoon? If it’s over Scranton then..let it rain. We’ll have more chances. Either way it’s all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 8 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea. UK would be pretty snowy: I'm significantly behind in this thread .. back here on a page 15 but this caught my eye. Those two panels are quintessential/ ideal for maximizing cold profile storm type - i.e., unusually large snowfall result. - just throwin' the snow enthusiasts a bone, but not making that up. That's a rather intense easterly 850 mb anomaly, running under 925 mb N flow, most assuredly under a whopper 700mb frontogen UVM banding... Nuts, but it may be passe by the time I've taken in data, tru 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Gotchya. Where is a scooter shit streak when we need one then? Waiting for the next event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: I'm significantly behind in this thread .. back here on a page 15 but this caught my eye. Those two panels are quintessential/ ideal for maximizing cold profile storm type - i.e., unusually large snowfall result. - just throwin' the snow enthusiasts a bone, but not making that up. That's a rather intense easterly 850 mb anomaly, running under 925 mb N flow, most assuredly under a whopper 700mb frontogen UVM banding... Nuts, but it may be passe by the time I've taken in data, tru Qpf be dammed that would be “it”. UK is usually on the sauce though but we can dream it has a clue…it is the second scoring model at h5 afterall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: Ginxy just kidding with ya. I’m just an immature child who finds that funny. That TPV just sucks up that 5H north. Weather is so interesting and complex. Slow that TPV down a hair and..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Waiting for the next event. Eating all the kfc and taco bell, loading up for when the time is right… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 20 minutes ago, mreaves said: Stebo posted this last night in a different place 1. The ocean storm is weaker and east run to run2.upper low in Quebec moves east faster3. The trough is digging further and further west into the westAnd 4. The ridge from the west is moving in slowerThe pocket for ridging to form along the east coast is developing. The only way this keeps the east in the game is if the the trough doesn't go neutral until east of the MS river What does JB think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Shit libs? Lol ok. We love Ant and I was actually daring wolfie cuz Ant would have: with the exception of the red beard, I hate that pic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, dryslot said: What does JB think? Who cares?? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Right, which is why I said that we need to see an abrupt reversal today...not a 20 miles tick east by 3 EPS members...a jarring reversal. Do we though? Some messenger shuffle from now until go-time could get it done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Larry Cosgrove on LinkedIn: What will start the Arctic invasion of the eastern two-thirds of North 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Looks like 06z EPS mean is over Taunton, but the median is more like Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Do we though? Some messenger shuffle from now until go-time could get it done. JMHO to get like a foot here...not for several inches to rain. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, JC-CT said: What we've seen so far is a major correction. If we windshield wipe from here, we are talking about if/how much on the front end before the changeover, unless it ends up on the far east side of the "wipe." Which can still be a decent event, but not what it could have been for SNE. Unless of course we end up with a UKMET solution or like many members of the GEFS EPS. Your statement is pretty concrete 5 days out. Absolutely could be right but throwing in the towel day 5 on 75 mile shifts?. IDK 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 22 minutes ago, mreaves said: Stebo posted this last night in a different place 1. The ocean storm is weaker and east run to run2.upper low in Quebec moves east faster3. The trough is digging further and further west into the westAnd 4. The ridge from the west is moving in slowerThe pocket for ridging to form along the east coast is developing. The only way this keeps the east in the game is if the the trough doesn't go neutral until east of the MS river this is a key that DT talks about alot. Seems that we should watch the better shorter term guidance to see how it trends with the tilt of trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Unless of course we end up with a UKMET solution or like many members of the GEFS EPS. Your statement is pretty concrete 5 days out. Absolutely could be right but throwing in the towel day 5 on 75 mile shifts?. IDK I will say this...there is a reason I won't blog about this until tomorrow at the earliest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You look at H5 at hour 84, and I would say you are high if you expected something near NYC. Not sure I’ve ever seen that. That’s such an abrupt turn north. Right, it’s bizarre… it’s doing these hopscotch jumps to the north, west, north, west with each frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Unless of course we end up with a UKMET solution or like many members of the GEFS EPS. Your statement is pretty concrete 5 days out. Absolutely could be right but throwing in the towel day 5 on 75 mile shifts?. IDK When did I throw in the towel? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: with the exception of the red beard, I hate that pic. Me too. My red beard agrees. I love animals and hate the hunt too. I was trying to portray a visual of Ant vs Wolfie but in bad taste so my bad. I get carried away, pretty often actually. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Lips N Hips turn into Drips N Shits. you been there eh? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Gotchya. Where is a scooter shit streak when we need one then? put a bunch of maalox in his coffee and we might be all set Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Why is it that people take such exception in principle to a statement along the lines of "what you want is still possible, but is no longer the most likely outcome of all the possibilities based on information currently available." If someone wants to argue that a benchmark track is the favored solution, by all means, let's hear it. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: this is a key that DT talks about alot. Seems that we should watch the better shorter term guidance to see how it trends with the tilt of trough. I could be wrong, I think he says if it goes negative tilt around the Mississippi, it will turn north too soon and hug the coast or go inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, hudsonvalley21 said: I could be wrong, I think he says if it goes negative tilt around the Mississippi, it will turn north too soon and hug the coast or go inland. correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Long range still looks good. So what if this storm cuts there are plenty of future chances. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, hudsonvalley21 said: I could be wrong, I think he says if it goes negative tilt around the Mississippi, it will turn north too soon and hug the coast or go inland. thanks to Will and others for discussing that in the last few minutes. Made me feel better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks like 06z EPS mean is over Taunton, but the median is more like Boston. GEFS over ACK......if we can at least stop the trend today, this is still a legit winter storm for most of us, just not a blockbuster. These ensemble tracks jive with my feelings all along right now, but again...lets stop the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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