Monitoring a potential important TV to East Coastal storm: Jan 17

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

If it keeps heading west that's a good call, actually.

Not sure we'd get much snow if this keeps going west. lol.....right now we have a thump to rain.

[mreaves]

Stebo posted this last night in a different place

1. The ocean storm is weaker and east run to run

2.upper low in Quebec moves east faster

3. The trough is digging further and further west into the west

And 4. The ridge from the west is moving in slower

The pocket for ridging to form along the east coast is developing. The only way this keeps the east in the game is if the the trough doesn't go neutral until east of the MS river

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

For whom?

Detroit 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Modeling often swings like a windshield wiper far left then far right and usually ends up within 20⁰ of the middle

The wipers run out of steam with less lead time, though, which is why we are currently in a precarious position.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Like it or not, we will be in a period that is favorable for "threats" for at least a couple of weeks....just how often we get boned is up in the air.

And Some enjoy being boned so it may not be all that bad.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Stebo posted this last night in a different place

1. The ocean storm is weaker and east run to run

2.upper low in Quebec moves east faster

3. The trough is digging further and further west into the west

And 4. The ridge from the west is moving in slower

The pocket for ridging to form along the east coast is developing. The only way this keeps the east in the game is if the the trough doesn't go neutral until east of the MS river

The ultimate irony is that everyone wanted that to trend weaker and further away so that it didn't negatively interfere with this next one.

Careful what we wish for....

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The wipers run out of steam with less lead time, though, which is why we are currently in a precarious position.

Get inside 90 hrs. How can people forget the dozens and dozens of model failures this year outside 4 days Ops and Ensemble 

[Baroclinic Zone]

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Look at how skewed westward those lows are into interior E PA....we need a pretty big change at 12z or its lights out for a big event....obviously there would be some front end snow (more the further north you go), but a lot of the region would flip

 

 

 

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

The EPS mean over the Cape with associated qpf pattern doesn't scream west to me. But trend west is real over 2 cycles 

She going West,

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Get inside 90 hrs. How can people forget the dozens and dozens of model failures this year outside 4 days Ops and Ensemble 

Right, which is why I said that we need to see an abrupt reversal today...not a 20 miles tick east by 3 EPS members...a jarring reversal.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The ultimate irony is that everyone wanted that to trend weaker and further away so that it didn't negatively interfere with this next one.

Careful what we wish for....

Don't think anyone wanted it weaker but geez modeling changed  from day 5/6 for that storm imagine that

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Funny the first 200 times. Whatever happens happens but you also had us rain last Friday so there is that

Not you.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Stebo posted this last night in a different place

1. The ocean storm is weaker and east run to run

2.upper low in Quebec moves east faster

3. The trough is digging further and further west into the west

And 4. The ridge from the west is moving in slower

The pocket for ridging to form along the east coast is developing. The only way this keeps the east in the game is if the the trough doesn't go neutral until east of the MS river

There have been solutions though where the trough is still positive when it’s over GA and the sucker still climbs the coast and goes inland. I agree about the trough digging further SW, that’s been a trend we need reversed.

[ORH_wxman]

In Steve's defense, the GEFS aren't skewed as much to the west as the EPS....the 06z OP GFS is basically the furthest west member.

But the trend definitely needs to halt.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The ultimate irony is that everyone wanted that to trend weaker and further away so that it didn't negatively interfere with this next one.

Careful what we wish for....

Ha. We should have just signed for DIT’s 1-3” and moved on to a early spring.

[Baroclinic Zone]

I see nothing in the upper air pattern to kick this east.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Don't think anyone wanted it weaker but geez modeling changed  from day 5/6 for that storm imagine that

Sure did....its not complicated. A meager wave provides less interference.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right, which is why I said that we need to see an abrupt reversal today...not a 20 miles tick east by 3 EPS members...a jarring reversal.

You saw the 6Z mean and the EPS precip maps I posted does that look way west up the Hudson Valley to you? Today at day 5 I am sticking with Jan climo , over the Cape

[CoastalWx]

You look at H5 at hour 84, and I would say you are high if you expected something near NYC. Not sure I’ve ever seen that. That’s such an abrupt turn north. 

[CoastalWx]

Lips N Hips turn into Drips N Shits.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sure did....its not complicated. A meager wave provides less interference.

Could be 940 and East. What us driving this bus is the farther west movement of the PV in Canada on modeling leading to less confluence over us. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

There have been solutions though where the trough is still positive when it’s over GA and the sucker still climbs the coast and goes inland. I agree about the trough digging further SW, that’s been a trend we need reversed.

 

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Ha. We should have just signed for DIT’s 1-3” and moved on to a early spring.

In the original solutions before we had much of a storm, the shortwave was just sliding off the southeast coast with no consequence and we were discussing how wave #3 would be the one.....what's happening since then is that shortwave #2 digs way down south and slows down so that when shortwave #3 approaches, it's partially phasing it allowing it to climb the coast as an inland runner.

 

But yeah, even on the 06z GFS, the trough is positively tilted still at the MS River...even over the TN Valley too.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

In Steve's defense, the GEFS aren't skewed as much to the west as the EPS....the 06z OP GFS is basically the furthest west member.

But the trend definitely needs to halt.

For sure. Each gfs op run though has been on the extreme nw end of gefs members. Eventually, something has to give. Hopefully the op has been at Kevin’s house far too long and it needs a ride home to sober up.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You saw the 6Z mean and the EPS precip maps I posted does that look way west up the Hudson Valley to you? Today at day 5 I am sticking with Jan climo , over the Cape

I was always thinking cape, too.....lets see what happens today.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You look at H5 at hour 84, and I would say you are high if you expected something near NYC. Not sure I’ve ever seen that. That’s such an abrupt turn north. 

Yeah I just posted to luke how this thing is still positively tilted over the TN valley on the 06z GFS and the friggin' thing ends up in BGM....lol.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Could be 940 and East. What us driving this bus is the farther west movement of the PV in Canada on modeling leading to less confluence over us. 

I think it goes hand in hand....weaker and/or further east first wave allows more space for amplification upstream, which increases earlier/more phasing with the PV lobe.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You look at H5 at hour 84, and I would say you are high if you expected something near NYC. Not sure I’ve ever seen that. That’s such an abrupt turn north. 

I don’t know how you can turn a positively tilted trough over the southeast like what without a full phase from the trailing vort. And when it’s not phasing and yet it climbs the coast like that, it looks strange. Jmwo.

[PhineasC]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not sure we'd get much snow if this keeps going west. lol.....right now we have a thump to rain.

I only care about my backyard.  

[JC-CT]

13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Modeling often swings like a windshield wiper far left then far right and usually ends up within 20⁰ of the middle

What we've seen so far is a major correction. If we windshield wipe from here, we are talking about if/how much on the front end before the changeover, unless it ends up on the far east side of the "wipe." Which can still be a decent event, but not what it could have been for SNE.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

In the original solutions before we had much of a storm, the shortwave was just sliding off the southeast coast with no consequence and we were discussing how wave #3 would be the one.....what's happening since then is that shortwave #2 digs way down south and slows down so that when shortwave #3 approaches, it's partially phasing it allowing it to climb the coast as an inland runner.

 

But yeah, even on the 06z GFS, the trough is positively tilted still at the MS River...even over the TN Valley too.

Gotchya. Where is a scooter shit streak when we need one then?

[Hazey]

Is it me or has the mid range guidance left a lot to be desired? Some pretty whole sale changes keep happening around hours 120 -168. Noticed it a few times this year. I suppose it's normal but just seems more dramatic shifts as of late.