Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 What was happening all along is that the GFS was using the northern stream to push this thing further east before it came up north so the phasing was happening over New England and so forth …but in this run we noticed at around 96 hours, far less northern stream coming in so this thing is just sort of I don’t know why it’s doing what it’s doing but it’s not getting in northern stream assistance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Nice WAA/overrunning event here verbatim thanks to that initial high anchoring in, but I wouldn't feel too confident about staying all snow in a setup like that. Just another dart on the dartboard for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Yikes. If euro keeps the west trend going, even at this lead time, we have to think about trashing ens means which are skewed by the east/ots and weigh the west members more heavily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yikes. If euro keeps the west trend going, even at this lead time, we have to think about trashing ens means which are skewed by the east/ots and weigh the west members more heavily. Many times the ensembles are too flat in these setups with potent s/w’s. Doesn’t mean it has to true, but I’ve seen that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yikes. If euro keeps the west trend going, even at this lead time, we have to think about trashing ens means which are skewed by the east/ots and weigh the west members more heavily. It’s definitely a flag to me that a lot of these op runs are on the very western envelope of ensemble solutions. A flag in the sense that the ensembles may be incorrect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Congrats powderfreak on that run. Some initial snow for most but that’s a massive rainstorm for most of SNE and up into eastern NH and even Maine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: What was happening all along is that the GFS was using the northern stream to push this thing further east before it came up north so the phasing was happening over New England and so forth …but in this run we noticed at around 96 hours, far less northern stream coming in so this thing is just sort of I don’t know why it’s doing what it’s doing but it’s not getting in northern stream assistance There is basically zero interaction from the trail sw so how it gets so far nw I don’t know either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 That would rightfully set many over the edge for good this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 Nah … That thing triple points underneath. But it’s so typical for the Gfs to do this - it takes an oddball solution …everybody complains about it and it makes it even more odd on the next run. Doesn’t look like it’s very climate friendly it’s trying to fit a low between a lakes cutter and a coastal commitment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 There’s a million chances going forward. You aren’t beating the casino every time. If it rains oh well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: That would rightfully set many over the edge for good this winter Nah. We just need to keep an eye out for steep ledges in Methuen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 It's a really cold antecedent airmass so even the GFS track is probably a decent burst of +SN before we pour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I think the GEFS is coming west this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: It's a really cold antecedent airmass so even the GFS track is probably a decent burst of +SN before we pour. Yeah I was just looking at the 2 m with high teens interior/N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Too bad it can’t be 24hrs earlier for the pats/bills game at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 That is one of the quickest major storm pivots (turning the corner) I've seen on a weather model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 14 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Kevin is always excited for a damaging southeaster though. And he gets 1-3” Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Many times the ensembles are too flat in these setups with potent s/w’s. Doesn’t mean it has to true, but I’ve seen that. Gotchya. There seemed to be too many huggers and inland runners that were muted by bermuda members so the true mean was probably closer to LI then over the BM imwo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: There is basically zero interaction from the trail sw so how it gets so far nw I don’t know either. It’s the GFS at 5 plus days out..enough said. Just another solution. It’ll do this for a few more runs, then start correcting the other way after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 Welp it’s five days away so whatever… Too tired to do any kind of meaningful mass field analysis to figure it out but just a scratch stab it looks specious to me due to continuity with the upstream aspects. Doesn’t mean much. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I guess the GFS really does want to turn this into a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Welp it’s five days away so whatever… Too tired to do any kind of meaningful mass field analysis to figure it out but just a scratch stab it looks specious to me due to continuity with the upstream aspects. Doesn’t mean much. This! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, PhineasC said: I guess the GFS really does want to turn this into a cutter. For now..it’ll bounce the other way by Thursday/Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: It’s the GFS at 5 plus days out..enough said. Just another solution. It’ll do this for a few more runs, then start correcting the other way after that. Maybe but it’s not on it’s own so it can’t be ignored. Anyway, worse case left goal post is probably some snow followed by big rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Still a big snowstorm here but with that track... it would be pretty dicey. Still think it comes east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I guess the GFS really does want to turn this into a cutter. It may “want” to lol. But this really isn’t a cutter it’s slipping between climate tracks which is part of the red flag for me. I just think it’s another peregrination … likely to be a week full of them until probably Thur High confidence for an event … probably a significant one, but we are still going to be have to be quibbling over details and unfavorable tracks at times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Maybe but it’s not on it’s own so it can’t be ignored. Anyway, worse case left goal post is probably some snow followed by big rains. At 5.5 days it sure can be ignored. There will be over a dozen and a half more runs showing something else before go time. Windshield wiper affect… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 At hr114 the op is way nw of the gefs mean and looks like an outlier, so there’s that. Whatever, another day of swings tomorrow. Peace. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: At hr114 the op is way nw of the gefs mean and looks like an outlier, so there’s that. Whatever, another day of swings tomorrow. Peace. Yes sir…this has many more transformations to go through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Tough to buy that this is the outcome this far out, Seen this change to many times just this year at a short lead time, Going to need a few more days to see if this continues then i will consider it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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