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Monitoring a potential important TV to East Coastal storm: Jan 17


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Eagerly awaiting the first flakes from what looks to be a doozy here. I knew those NAM runs from a couple of days ago were way too warm as it overdoes WAA in storms with strong dynamical cooling processes. It's best with run of the mill SWFEs, but not these storms.

The E to SE LLJ slamming into the Greens is a big win, giving my spot the maximum possible upslope assist. Modeling is averaging around 2 inches of QPF here from both the front and back of the storm, pretty much all of it snow. Worst case scenario, there may be some brief mix around the time the occlusion comes through here from the south late morning, early afternoon tomorrow, but the 18z 3-km NAM keeps me all snow and has a max temperature of around 32-33° F before we start getting CAA from the south tomorrow afternoon. 

Boy do we need this! This is white gold for the ski areas and winter sports around here as it's been a rather anemic winter so far.

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It a rare day when I don't want it to snow but being a plow driver with covid right now really has me rooting for rain. All my accounts are in the torrington area. Can anyone tell me if you think all the snow that falls will be washed away at least on paved surfaces? I dont think i can even sit in a plow truck for 30 mins right now never mind my full route that takes about 8 hours. 

 

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7 minutes ago, WhiteLawns said:

It a rare day when I don't want it to snow but being a plow driver with covid right now really has me rooting for rain. All my accounts are in the torrington area. Can anyone tell me if you think all the snow that falls will be washed away at least on paved surfaces? I dont think i can even sit in a plow truck for 30 mins right now never mind my full route that takes about 8 hours. 

 

Planning on cleaning up everything on our routes before we get too much rain, don’t like the thought of pushing water/slush mess, we’re all commercial though….. I would probably let residential driveways melt  

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4 minutes ago, Johnno said:

Planning on cleaning up everything on our routes before we get too much rain, don’t like the thought of pushing water/slush mess, we’re all commercial though….. I would probably let residential driveways melt  

Yeah I’m only truly worried about my commercial account. Which is a 22 house homeowners association. I do the driveways and the road. It’s a 65 and older community and they have all the time in the world to complain so I have to make sure they are all happy all the time haha.

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24 minutes ago, WhiteLawns said:

It a rare day when I don't want it to snow but being a plow driver with covid right now really has me rooting for rain. All my accounts are in the torrington area. Can anyone tell me if you think all the snow that falls will be washed away at least on paved surfaces? I dont think i can even sit in a plow truck for 30 mins right now never mind my full route that takes about 8 hours. 

 

Hope you feel better soon!

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32 minutes ago, wxmanmitch said:

Eagerly awaiting the first flakes from what looks to be a doozy here. I knew those NAM runs from a couple of days ago were way too warm as it overdoes WAA in storms with strong dynamical cooling processes. It's best with run of the mill SWFEs, but not these storms.

The E to SE LLJ slamming into the Greens is a big win, giving my spot the maximum possible upslope assist. Modeling is averaging around 2 inches of QPF here from both the front and back of the storm, pretty much all of it snow. Worst case scenario, there may be some brief mix around the time the occlusion comes through here from the south late morning, early afternoon tomorrow, but the 18z 3-km NAM keeps me all snow and has a max temperature of around 32-33° F before we start getting CAA from the south tomorrow afternoon. 

Boy do we need this! This is white gold for the ski areas and winter sports around here as it's been a rather anemic winter so far.

ALY bumped up totals a bit in SVT. Went from 4-5" earlier here to 12" now. I don't see that happening in the valley.  Also some 18-24" in the Stratton zone, this thing is moving pretty quick for 2ft. Seems a liittle aggressive, even if we can add some backside upslope. Going to be interesting to see this how this plays out across the area with all the terrain nuances that will be even more in play than normal with this event.

StormTotalSnow.thumb.jpg.6f33c022f8325ddaf83d71b1de803264.jpg

 

 

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Just now, backedgeapproaching said:

ALY bumped up totals a bit in SVT. Went from 4-5" earlier here to 12" now. I don't see that happening in the valley.  Also some 18-24" in the Stratton zone, this thing is moving pretty quick for 2ft. Seems a liittle aggressive, even if we can add some backside upslope. Going to be interesting to see this how this plays out across the area with all the terrain nuances that will be even more in play than normal with this event.

StormTotalSnow.thumb.jpg.6f33c022f8325ddaf83d71b1de803264.jpg

 

 

Yeah, GYX trimmed back the 18-24 stuff for their zones which I think makes sense. This thing has mixing issues and is hauling ass. Doesn't seem like something with widespread 15"+ totals. I know the idea is 6-7 hours of monstrous rates but we all know a couple hours of that will be spent on spottier stuff like always.

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7 minutes ago, Johnno said:

NBC30 just expanded the 3-6” range further south in CT and WTNH added a 6”+ for northern Litchfield and northwest Hartford county… maybe we can pull a small positive bust before the deluge following and end with a gain

It may not stick around, but every inch counts towards the seasonal total.

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2 inches and some decent bursts down here in MD. More than I expected, actually. The snow laid on every surface immediately too which is pretty rare here. Usually hours of time and a quarter inch of precip are wasted cooling the fricking earth as millions of precious snowflakes make the ultimate sacrifice. Heavy rain overnight but all snow for now. Pingers in DC though I think. So it's coming.

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1 hour ago, wxmanmitch said:

Eagerly awaiting the first flakes from what looks to be a doozy here. I knew those NAM runs from a couple of days ago were way too warm as it overdoes WAA in storms with strong dynamical cooling processes. It's best with run of the mill SWFEs, but not these storms.

The E to SE LLJ slamming into the Greens is a big win, giving my spot the maximum possible upslope assist. Modeling is averaging around 2 inches of QPF here from both the front and back of the storm, pretty much all of it snow. Worst case scenario, there may be some brief mix around the time the occlusion comes through here from the south late morning, early afternoon tomorrow, but the 18z 3-km NAM keeps me all snow and has a max temperature of around 32-33° F before we start getting CAA from the south tomorrow afternoon. 

Boy do we need this! This is white gold for the ski areas and winter sports around here as it's been a rather anemic winter so far.

Pretty sweet spot to be. Old Dutch Hill should get smoked.

 

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54 minutes ago, Johnno said:

Planning on cleaning up everything on our routes before we get too much rain, don’t like the thought of pushing water/slush mess, we’re all commercial though….. I would probably let residential driveways melt  

In Torrington? He will have an icy mess if left

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49 minutes ago, WhiteLawns said:

Yeah I’m only truly worried about my commercial account. Which is a 22 house homeowners association. I do the driveways and the road. It’s a 65 and older community and they have all the time in the world to complain so I have to make sure they are all happy all the time haha.

Damn hope you feel better.  No one to fill in?

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OT- I watch reruns of 'Law & Order' from the 90s and 00s.  Filmed on location NYC.  Half the time, actual snow or snow on the ground in Manhattan.  That did not happen in the 1970s when I lived outside NYC, and it doesn't happen now.

 

Is there a grand cycle, some multi-decadal oscillation, or bad decades for snow?

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Is it worth it to have a now-cast/Obs thread ?

19/7 ... near full moon dimly visible/halo

Fwiw, the 22:27 analysis by WPC gives the impression that the GFS was slightly too aggressive in lowering surface pressure over eastern/central NE...  That's 1:33 before 00z, which is perfectly comparative, but is close; it was 2 mb lower over western Ma, and had the center of the high considerable farther east of that ob position.   Not sure if that's worth the mention...

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