40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’ll take the over on 2” I have KASH around 3" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 21 minutes ago, dendrite said: We’ll be inverted during the snow so don’t worry about the wind. Maybe some gusts later in the day. We’ll flip to rain before the slot…guarantee it. Not trying to burst your bubble here. Your posts have been very confident in every facet . Like you know what’s going to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, TheMainer said: Did 400 miles this weekend, hit opening weekend at Libby camps then up to the trains and back Friday then did a loop to Jackman Saturday, we stayed off the trails a lot but getting in and out of Jackman was the thinnest I've seen it, rideable buy barely. Can't see how anyone in their right mind rode through the forks this weekend, luckily we have a bypass for that. Just need my 6 inches of paste and I'm thrilled, we'll be in decent shape then Cant even imagine trying to get Berry's store down in the forks.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The good Pope hit 23? Trust me I've already made a point to check the 00z highs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I have KASH around 3" Yeah their longitude will help. I didn’t look hard there but i could see several inches there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Your posts have been very confident in every facet . Like you know what’s going to happen So you're forecasting 40mph gusts with +SN here under the wedge? Noted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duncanwxnh Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 18 minutes ago, dendrite said: What I should say we may get some gusts late morning once we erode that cold wedge and warm sector a bit. We’ll be ripping in that LLJ late morning. Since we always seem to be on the transition edge it would be nice if it were Manchester this time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Overcast here now and a cold 21F. Snowing in Washington DC per webcams. Radar shows snow now in Southern New Jersey. NWS has 1-4" overnight here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 25 minutes ago, dendrite said: We’ll be inverted during the snow so don’t worry about the wind. Maybe some gusts later in the day. We’ll flip to rain before the slot…guarantee it. Not trying to burst your bubble here. actually we have a 1500 ft driveway that is subject to serious drifted. Best case for me is heavy snow, get the tractor going to snow blow the driveway before any real rain gets into it and makes it hard to snowblow the driveway. Get the driveway clear and let the drizzle crust up the pack so we don't have keep snowblowing drifts. Though blowing snow is great fun, I want the crust before the winds get going. I take it you aren't as enthusiastic as GYX's latest update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The good Pope hit 23? the stations around me, which started around -10 all hit 22-24. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 12 in Randolph. It's snowing here in MD. Maybe an inch or so. But sleet is getting near DC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Your posts have been very confident in every facet . Like you know what’s going to happen when he's confident he's usually right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 19 minutes ago, PhineasC said: You guys are getting some good rains to help the vegetable gardens and fill the ponds, lakes, and reservoirs. yes yes, down here in the subtropical climes we could use a little rain, its been arid 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: actually we have a 1500 ft driveway that is subject to serious drifted. Best case for me is heavy snow, get the tractor going to snow blow the driveway before any real rain gets into it and makes it hard to snowblow the driveway. Get the driveway clear and let the drizzle crust up the pack so we don't have keep snowblowing drifts. Though blowing snow is great fun, I want the crust before the winds get going. I take it you aren't as enthusiastic as GYX's latest update. idk...reading the AFD now and it aligns with my thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, dendrite said: idk...reading the AFD now and it aligns with my thoughts. they increased the amounts on the map and in the zones. they seem more confident on the 1-3/hour rates. 3-5 hours of that = 6-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Quote Narrow band of warm, moist air being pulled into the low pressure system will translate northeast across our forecast area during the morning hours on Monday. A strong low level jet will be adding fuel to the system to produce heavy precipitation rates over the period of 4 to 8 hours. At the surface, the very cold air mass we`ve been dealing with the last few days will be hard to shove away by the less dense warm air. The easterly low level flow and inverted low level thermal profile will promote damming east of the mountains and the formation of a coastal front between this colder air and the more maritime air being pulled in off the Atlantic. The strong surge of moisture into this coastal front will likely be the source of the most intense precipitation through the morning, with the coastal front making progress inland with time. Thus we will see a transition from heavy snow to rain as the coastal front marches inland, with the precipitation itself ending rather quickly as as the dry slot moves in aloft. We could see a period of drizzle or freezing drizzle (depending on the temperature in each location) after the dry slot moves through, although it should be rather insignificant compared to the heavier precipitation that falls just ahead of it. Behind the coastal front, the low levels will be less inverted allowing greater access to the extreme low level jet above, thus bringing the threat for some high winds. This threat will be greatest at the immediate coastline, but stronger wind gusts will be possible further inland as well once the coastal front arrives. Current High Wind Warning covers this threat well and will continue. As for the snowfall itself, I think the biggest factor here is the intense snowfall rates expected as the surge of moisture slams into the coastal front. Snowfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour are likely which is enough to overwhelm road clearing operations and create more difficult driving conditions than usual. As a result, we were a bit more liberal than normal in placing Winter Storm Warnings as these heavy snowfall rates will create very difficult driving conditions for a period of a few hours Monday morning, even if the total snowfall is a bit less than 6 inches. The change over to rain on top of the snow will also make for more slippery conditions as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: yes yes, down here in the subtropical climes we could use a little rain, its been arid I was told by a poster here the lawns are lush and green and there is no mud anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, mahk_webstah said: they increased the amounts on the map and in the zones. they seem more confident on the 1-3/hour rates. 3-5 hours of that = 6-12 They upgraded to warnings but admitted they may not meet the threshold, but went with them anyway because of the intensity of snow rates in the morning. We'll see. I mean I had 5-8" for us IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 GYX cut back slightly on totals here. 9-15 now. Lines up with my guess of 10-12. This thing is too fast for the big totals here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Sitting in an igloo tent thing at a restaurant in Central ORH county MA. Air temp was 25 when we parked. The space heaters aren’t keeping up. Thank god for alchohol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 23 here as I await my rain. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: 23 here as I await my rain. At least you will have some good wind, I will swap with you.........just want an all snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Sitting in an igloo tent thing at a restaurant in Central ORH county MA. Air temp was 25 when we parked. The space heaters aren’t keeping up. Thank god for alchohol Black n White in Spencer? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 12 minutes ago, dendrite said: They upgraded to warnings but admitted they may not meet the threshold, but went with them anyway because of the intensity of snow rates in the morning. We'll see. I mean I had 5-8" for us IIRC. I hadn't seen your recent accum thoughts. I remember you were thinking 3-5 would be lucky a couple days ago as everything was warming. We have managed a snowpack for a month, and it will get even more glaciated by Tuesday morn. I was out on Walker Pond today, walking around. Really beautiful, feels like deep winter. In an unlucky winter we have at least felt like winter, and this storm will help given the long range forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, subdude said: Black n White in Spencer? Yep. We are the only idiots sitting outside 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 23F....hard to believe it's rain coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 44 minutes ago, dryslot said: Cant even imagine trying to get Berry's store down in the forks.......... Exactly! That can be rough on a good year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Precip is racing in fast toward SWCT i could see a nice over performance by Danbury Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 28 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Sitting in an igloo tent thing at a restaurant in Central ORH county MA. Air temp was 25 when we parked. The space heaters aren’t keeping up. Thank god for alchohol We went there in the Spring when temps were in the 40's, good food there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 34 minutes ago, dendrite said: They upgraded to warnings but admitted they may not meet the threshold, but went with them anyway because of the intensity of snow rates in the morning. We'll see. I mean I had 5-8" for us IIRC. They Tend to over forecast amounts about 80% of the time compared to what will fall in “bigger events “ I’ve noticed . seen it for several years now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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