Go Kart Mozart Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd place the goal posts from just inside the BM to around PYM. Wow, narrow goal posts for this far out in time. I pray you are right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Did I miss anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 11 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Did I miss anything Icon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 For those of you with the Kocin / Uccellini Northeast Snowstorms Volume II - The Card book available, check out the Feb. 15-17, 1958 storm. Very close surface and 500 mb match for the pre-storm 48 hours period onward to the day of the event. The result was widespread 9 to 16" amounts across SNE with a heavy deformation band of 20 to 36 inches running northeast across eastern PA, eastern NY on into srn VT / central NH... It was a slower mover than the upcoming event is likely to be, but good features analog match? 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, FXWX said: For those of you with the Kocin / Uccellini Northeast Snowstorms Volume II - The Card book available, check out the Feb. 15-17, 1958 storm. Very close surface and 500 mb match for the pre-storm 48 hours period onward to the day of the event. The result was widespread 9 to 16" amounts across SNE with a heavy deformation band of 20 to 36 inches running northeast across eastern PA, eastern NY on into srn VT / central NH... It was a slower mover than the upcoming event is likely to be, but good features analog match? I’m wondering if this one may slow some in future cycles … 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: I’m wondering if this one may slow some in future cycles … possible the upper level vort pulls it back some? have to wait and see what the Fri system does to the flow though I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 9 minutes ago, FXWX said: For those of you with the Kocin / Uccellini Northeast Snowstorms Volume II - The Card book available, check out the Feb. 15-17, 1958 storm. Very close surface and 500 mb match for the pre-storm 48 hours period onward to the day of the event. The result was widespread 9 to 16" amounts across SNE with a heavy deformation band of 20 to 36 inches running northeast across eastern PA, eastern NY on into srn VT / central NH... It was a slower mover than the upcoming event is likely to be, but good features analog match? Actually about what I envision attm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 29 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Wow, narrow goal posts for this far out in time. I pray you are right! Well, that's just my guess....obviously crazy early and I would never make a forecast yet. Probably Thursday for a first look at the earliest...maybe Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Icon LBSW and LBNE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: LBSW and LBNE IOW-I didn't jack. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The latest trends indicate I’ll need your best buddha impersonation sooner than later. I think you are totally fine, man...I would be shocked if you rained that far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: LBSW and LBNE and LBOSE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: LBSW and LBNE ICON LBABMBY please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 12z EPS showing some interesting things when it comes to the EFI. No shading indicates that less than half of the members forecast an extreme snowfall for the 5 weeks centered on this date. BUT the contours (especially above 1) indicate that the members that do forecast the most snowfall (i.e. 90th percentile of EPS member forecast) those members are fairly extreme. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: 12z EPS showing some interesting things when it comes to the EFI. No shading indicates that less than half of the members forecast an extreme snowfall for the 5 weeks centered on this date. BUT the contours (especially above 1) indicate that the members that do forecast the most snowfall (i.e. 90th percentile of EPS member forecast) those members are fairly extreme. That aligns with early thoughts for this event...Albany through the Berks up to Dendrite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 30 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Icon Tossed. Actually, the evolution is plausible just not the clown map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Tossed Entertaining run to click thru tho - it’s got that going for it. It’s doing all that with zero phasing because it’s kicking that southern stream out too far ahead… outpacing the northern stream, which is trying to come down into the backside I have no idea how to correct for this particular model I don’t really pay much attention to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Entertaining run to click thru tho - it’s got that going for it. It’s doing all that with zero phasing because it’s kicking that southern stream out too far ahead… outpacing the northern stream, which is trying to come down into the backside I have no idea how to correct for this particular model I don’t really pay much attention to it I have no idea either and I corrected myself because the evolution is certainly doable. The clown map is misleading . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I have no idea either and I corrected myself because the evolution is certainly doable. The clown map is misleading . Jesus… Not that it’s worth it to analyze but that particular storm depth and track being from southern stream origin like that? If it did exactly like that there would be 20 to 30 inches of snow from White Plains New York to Nashua New Hampshire regardless of whatever that snow tot product shows. If anything the model’s under done with QPF for one but two that’s basically historically powerful frontogen signature there - if that were ever kept track of 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Jesus… Not that it’s worth it to analyze but that particular storm depth and track being from southern stream origin like that? If it did exactly like that there would be 20 to 30 inches of snow from White Plains New York to Nashua New Hampshire regardless of whatever that snow tot product shows. If anything the model’s under done with QPF for one but two that’s basically historically powerful photogenic signature there - if that were ever kept track of Agree. It’s a pretty sweet mid level track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Entertaining run to click thru tho - it’s got that going for it. It’s doing all that with zero phasing because it’s kicking that southern stream out too far ahead… outpacing the northern stream, which is trying to come down into the backside I have no idea how to correct for this particular model I don’t really pay much attention to it Model is abysmal...I'd rather gamble on the HR 84 NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Gfs keep slowing the initial sw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 Wondering if this GFS run may actually be further west. Essentially the same thru 84 hrs …,maybe a pube west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Gfs keep slowing the initial sw. I’m starting to wonder if the GFS’s northern stream dominant bias, it “doesn’t know what to do” if it doesn’t have a screaming northerly jet. Stalling …. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Wondering if this GFS run may actually be further west. Essentially the same thru 84 hrs …,maybe a pube west Sure looks like it will be further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 We cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Wondering if this GFS run may actually be further west. Essentially the same thru 84 hrs …,maybe a pube west My concern as well… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 This is going to be a pretty undesirable solution for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: This is going to be a pretty undesirable solution for many Kevin is always excited for a damaging southeaster though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Pretty tough when the primary goes through NY state. Quick front end dump, then rain to Maine on this model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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