HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 My memory is def not as good as it used to be, but I seem to recall that the ICON was decent at surface temps. Not so much up above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, Ginx snewx said: I agree and that rain Flys by. Thumper looks better for you. An hour or 2 holding off rain will be key. An hour if sleet will help as well. Think surface warmth oversold for you anyway. We know the drill here. I will torch you will briefly hit near 40. Nice snow squall post rain with bottom shelf ULL should give us a half inch on top. Just my opinion I can think of a bunch of examples over the years like this where IJD hits 48 or something and it stays in the upper 30’s here. I’m not ruling anything out, but I have been skeptical of hours of 40’s. That period of snow tomorrow night has been showing up on most models for a couple days. Probably a lot .5 -1” stuff as it moves thru Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: For those in higher elevations, have some shear pins handy for your snowblowers. Will need to get out at 6am to clear it out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I can think of a bunch of examples over the years like this where IJD hits 48 or something and it stays in the upper 30’s here. I’m not ruling anything out, but I have been skeptical of hours of 40’s. That period of snow tomorrow night has been showing up on most models for a couple days. Probably a lot .5 -1” stuff as it moves thru For the record, I don't think you bake in the 40s all day, I don't think any model has ever shown that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, subdude said: Will need to get out at 6am to clear it out. Do you still do Ski Patrol at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: For the record, I don't think you bake in the 40s all day, I don't think any model has ever shown that. Should be a few hours of low 40s. Even if he holds u30s during the warm conveyor he'll have the front come through from the SW to mix it out and he'll end up with some low 40s with weak CAA anyway. The caveat will be breaks in the overcast during midday while the airmass is still relatively warm. Pop some sun for an hour or so and it shoots up to 45+. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 GFS is actually pretty cold now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 10 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: I would probably cut those maybe in half, but I think HRRR is on to cold trend and this ends up coming in colder for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 GFS is like 8" in 3hrs here.........lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 The 3KM clown map seems to be the realistic outcome on this storm. It takes the sleet into consideration here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: GFS is actually pretty cold now You've got good eyes...looks almost identical to me. Looks a little more juiced with qpf though especially in CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, Modfan2 said: I would probably cut those maybe in half, but I think HRRR is on to cold trend and this ends up coming in colder for most. Everything has gone right to Euro . It’s been the coldest run after run after run and it’s looking like it had the right idea . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Didn't see the 6z euro, but 00z ticked warmer from yesterday at 12z. Some ticks cooler on the NAM and GFS. So looks like we're meeting somewhere in the middle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Greg said: The 3KM clown map seems to be the realistic outcome on this storm. It takes the sleet into consideration here. *includes sleet* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Greg said: The 3KM clown map seems to be the realistic outcome on this storm. It takes the sleet into consideration here. I think it looks good, but if these colder solutions verify you could add 2-3” to these Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, JC-CT said: *includes sleet* I know.. Read what I wrote. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, JC-CT said: You've got good eyes...looks almost identical to me. Looks a little more juiced with qpf though especially in CNE. Think on all runs today more precip before mid levels torch. You can see it in the available precip rates. There are some spots who get 2 to 4 in an hour some carry that for 2 plus hours, hence why the Berks and Hunchiehubbymville might luck out. Sierra cement. Power outage stuff. Get over 6 and shit goes downhill fast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Will, what do you think of the 3km and HRRR being so cold, big difference down here in CT as well... Honestly not sure what to make of this. There’s arguments both ways. Synoptically this is pretty awful for snow with that rapid high pressure retreat and the pressure falls mostly being to the west rather than southeast when redevelopment is attempting my to take place when we get a typical front ender…however, this antecedent airmass is really strong so there’s a case to be made for the models trying to flush that high a little too quickly. If it hangs back even a couple hours longer than models think, then it’s going to bust positive for snow. I’d prob still hedge mostly on the lower side of guidance but I would put a little bit of weight on the HRRR/3km type solutions. I do think there should be a few hours of moderate to heavy snow even down in CT at the start. Sfc temps may dictate how well that accumulates. If the heaviest stuff is at 33-34F then it won’t be that efficient obviously. It’s a semi-interesting nowcast. We can see how the short term guidance keeps trending today. Esp this afternoon. I will say that the last 4-5 cycles of HRRr keep slowing the high retreat. 15z coming in right now is doing it again. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: You've got good eyes...looks almost identical to me. Looks a little more juiced with qpf though especially in CNE. definitely cooled above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 5-8" for me and Mark 8-12" Gene 12-16" Phin 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: *includes sleet* wont be much sleet in my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, Greg said: I know.. Read what I wrote. The 3KM clown map seems to be the realistic outcome on this storm. It takes the sleet into consideration here. I dont get it. It clearly doesn't take sleet into consideration...it only does 10-1 snow vs liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: wont be much sleet in my opinion Correct. At least for most of SNE/CNE (different story back in interior NY and PA) Very little sleet in this as the warmth comes in at the low levels first. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: wont be much sleet in my opinion Didnt say there would be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: wont be much sleet in my opinion There's going to be big bust potential with the clowns given the precip rates and deep layers in the low levels approaching +1C. The clowns could be calling 2 hours of 0.20"/hr @ 34F 4" of snow when it may not be accumulating much anymore. Like Will said, it's an interesting nowcast. My intuition is to undercut the clowns a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: wont be much sleet in my opinion Not sure either. It could go from a heavy snow to rain without much sleet getting in at all. Interesting situation. The duration of the true snowfall rates of the front end and rain will be paramount to how it all plays out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Honestly not sure what to make of this. There’s arguments both ways. Synoptically this is pretty awful for snow with that rapid high pressure retreat and the pressure falls mostly being to the west rather than southeast when redevelopment is attempting my to take place when we get a typical front ender…however, this antecedent airmass is really strong so there’s a case to be made for the models trying to flush that high a little too quickly. If it hangs back even a couple hours longer than models think, then it’s going to bust positive for snow. I’d prob still hedge mostly on the lower side of guidance but I would put a little bit of weight on the HRRR/3km type solutions. I do think there should be a few hours of moderate to heavy snow even down in CT at the start. Sfc temps may dictate how well that accumulates. If the heaviest stuff is at 33-34F then it won’t be that efficient obviously. It’s a semi-interesting nowcast. We can see how the short term guidance keeps trending today. Esp this afternoon. I will say that the last 4-5 cycles of HRRr keep slowing the high retreat. 15z coming in right now is doing it again. Do you think a longer period of IP/ZR? Really cold to start in many areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, dendrite said: There's going to be big bust potential with the clowns given the precip rates and deep layers in the low levels approaching +1C. The clowns could be calling 2 hours of 0.20"/hr @ 34F 4" of snow when it may not be accumulating much anymore. Like Will said, it's an interesting nowcast. My intuition is to undercut the clowns a bit. This likely becomes very elevation-dependent in the final couple hours before the flip to rain. We could see a scenario where after 2” of snow, I get 2 hours of 0.20” QPF/hour of massive wet aggregates at 34F but it only adds another inch or less while ORH grabs another 3” of paste in that same 2 hour span. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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