78Blizzard Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, forkyfork said: gfs warmer GFS is also the warmest model with the overnight surface temps tonight, at least in this area. Looks like they never fixed that bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 GFS looks like noise as far as temp changes in my area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ok . Ignore the trends. I’ll post my thermo to verify What trends? GFS just came in amped. And what's the difference between 45 and 42, when it's just dumping rain on top of a few inches of snow at best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, JC-CT said: What trends? GFS just came in amped. And what's the difference between 45 and 42, when it's just dumping rain on top of a few inches of snow at best. Euro , CMC , Reggie , NAM 2-4” snoww we 36-38 for a few hours and flip back to period of snow Monday night . Sell GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Euro , CMC , Reggie , NAM I honestly think you're trying to put lipstick on a pig. The next one is starting to come into view anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Euro , CMC , Reggie , NAM 2-4” snoww we 36-38 for a few hours and flip back to period of snow Monday night . Sell GFS None of those show you or I as anything close to "36-38 for a few hours." I honestly have no clue what you are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: None of those show you or I as anything close to "36-38 for a few hours." I honestly have no clue what you are talking about. Ok bro . You are intent on melting snow . Didn’t think we’d see it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ok bro . You are intent on melting snow . Didn’t think we’d see it I'm not melting anything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 40 minutes ago, Heat Miser said: It's pretty fun, too. I'm looking forward to tickling 45 degrees here in the CT river valley on Monday morning. 36 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Nice pit. Like fire pits on ice the snow ice doesn't melt underneath much. Kevin will have a glacier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 hours ago, dendrite said: I’m leaning 6-8” up there as of now. Brian, I'm surprised you are thinking of the 6 to 8" in my area. Usually we get downsloped by a northeast wind but this time it is east. Also models are spitting out 1.50" of precip. I was also looking at the wind. Usually this far inland there is not much wind but the models are showing over 45mph gusts. Would that ever happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 13 minutes ago, JC-CT said: I'm not melting anything. I’ll let you know how it ends up. If there’s snow or just grass come Monday at 5:00. I know what I think results will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 10 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Brian, I'm surprised you are thinking of the 6 to 8" in my area. Usually we get downsloped by a northeast wind but this time it is east. Also models are spitting out 1.50" of precip. I was also looking at the wind. Usually this far inland there is not much wind but the models are showing over 45mph gusts. Would that ever happen? I wonder if you get some strong winds off the slope there. It gets warm aloft with cold air forced up and over the ridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I’ll let you know how it ends up. If there’s snow or just grass come Monday at 5:00. I know what I think results will be. My guess is you won’t have grass. But it may be ugly pack. Where is this Monday night snow coming from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I am just hoping for 3-4” for my kid’s sanity even if we flip to rain for a bit. I am confident that I am not sniffing 40° at my house. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 29 minutes ago, JC-CT said: I honestly think you're trying to put lipstick on a pig. The next one is starting to come into view anyway. Thru a telescope? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, dryslot said: Thru a telescope? Yes, rains to maine again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: My guess is you won’t have grass. But it may be ugly pack. Where is this Monday night snow coming from? Models have a band of snow moving from NJ across CT into RI with the UL trough. .5-1” stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: Yes, rains to maine again They've all been sloppy for the most part this year, But the next one looked good from a distance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 43 minutes ago, JC-CT said: That is nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWilly Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 My interest in this storm is back to .5 to 1 percent 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 48 minutes ago, JC-CT said: None of those show you or I as anything close to "36-38 for a few hours." I honestly have no clue what you are talking about. It sounds like some interpreted that as they would be mowing their lawn come Tuesday. Hilarious line of exchanges from saying it gets into the 40s to “you wanna fight bro, I’ll still have snow left.” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I won’t be shocked if there’s still a hideous glacier intact over Kevin’s lawn on Monday but I’m not sure what the debate is worth anyway…I don’t think it would be more than 2 or 3 inches anyway. But 6-8 hours in the 40s with rain will be tough to fight off. Usually you want like an inch-plus of water in the pack to fight that type of assault off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I won’t be shocked if there’s still a hideous glacier intact over Kevin’s lawn on Monday but I’m not sure what the debate is worth anyway…I don’t think it would be more than 2 or 3 inches anyway. But 6-8 hours in the 40s with rain will be tough to fight off. Usually you want like an inch-plus of water in the pack to fight that type of assault off. I’ll sell those 40’ s for hours. That’s just my point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’ll sell those 40’ s for hours. That’s just my point I’m not. We’d need a significant bump SE to not be in the 40s for hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I’m not. We’d need a significant bump SE to not be in the 40s for hours. Just my read on it . My guess is we continue to see it cool . Could be totally off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 So, come Tuesday, a half inch-to an inch of ice in my yard. Kinda like today. At least there will be some frigid weather to keep things going. Who knows, at this rate by mid February it'll be 4 -5 inches of accumulated ice in the back yard. In the immortal words of the Wicked Witch of the West, "What a World!" At least the melt downs here (for the most part) avoid politics and Covid. I'll take a knock out fight about how long the 40's are going to last in my neighborhood over another Fauci-Paul s**tfest in the monkey house any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just my read on it . My guess is we continue to see it cool . Could be totally off. What specifics are you using to get this read? What types of model analysis are you using/seeing? Beer? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said: Brian, I'm surprised you are thinking of the 6 to 8" in my area. Usually we get downsloped by a northeast wind but this time it is east. Also models are spitting out 1.50" of precip. I was also looking at the wind. Usually this far inland there is not much wind but the models are showing over 45mph gusts. Would that ever happen? Maybe I should’ve said 6-10”. It’s basically a 6-8hr window for heavy rates so everything has to go right to realize that liquid. We’re upgliding over a cold dome and will push that coastal front more inland than usual, but that still a lot of QPF to squeeze in there for 6hrs in the form of snow. In the back of my head I see this ticking warmer with the changeover leaning toward the warmer models. So if it ends up colder more toward 10” there and if it ends up warmer then more toward the lower end. Like I said to dryslot, it’s basically a race between the warmth and the precip. And with the modeled rates there’s bust potential either way if it stays snow 2hrs longer versus raining 2hrs sooner. It’ll be a fun one to watch play out. Hopefully you stay mostly snow until the midlevel dry slot pushes through. It should be really pastey during the day. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 If something could slow and limit SLP north progress thru Pa maybe we could shorten the warmth 18z euro looks ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Kevin pacing up and down his driveway, taking quick glances at the scattered brown crusty chunks strewn across the side of his dead lawn, mumbling to himself. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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