JC-CT Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, ineedsnow said: that snow map is UGLY though on weather.cod just looking at trends on where it goes if it starts cooling more we will snow here for a bit Who cares, it's just going to wash away 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Who cares, it's just going to wash away depends on what we can manage to get Euro and HRRR would be a gain here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: Surface? Draw him out til the 5 posts are used 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3k gone wild for the Whites. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3k went from 0.5 to almost 3 here now we trend 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just for fun (not at all any sort of forecast), here is the pivotal ECMWF clown map. 13" for mi casa lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: depends on what we can manage to get Euro and HRRR would be a gain here If you can hold onto a few inches in 40+ rain, then all the more power to you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, JC-CT said: If you can hold onto a few inches in 40+ rain, then all the more power to you still got a few here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 Certainly is colder on the NAM FOUS grid over ALB and Logan by a couple C's in the 900mb level... Not sure how it relates to the appeal in the graphics, but ... Again, I've been mentioning the NAM's propensity to collapse SE, when bringing events from outside the 48 ... 36 hour, to closer intervals. We'll see where it goes... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 18z HRRR... 19z still not there... Sleet will be taking these down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Draw him out til the 5 posts are used I don't care where the little L is at the surface, I was looking at H5 not the surface and there is a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Definitely a little bit better CAD up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, dryslot said: I don't care where the little L is at the surface, I was looking at H5 not the surface and there is a difference. I don't think H5 matters much at this point...it's out in NY. We just need to keep that cold wedged as long as possible. It's a race between the precip and WAA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: 18z HRRR... 19z still not there... Sleet will be taking these down not sure we get much sleet I think its snow maybe brief sleet to rain as of now weather.cod is almost the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 hour ago, PhineasC said: LOL most dudes are too afraid to ask their wives if they can have a new Xbox much less if they can uproot and move the entire family to rural NH. We have a good setup going now. Bustin your balls it’s all good. Congrats on that place bro. I’m slumming it in the southern greens, that Randolph view is sweet. Good thing you passed on Bennington lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 13 minutes ago, PhineasC said: 3k gone wild for the Whites. I hovered over a 28" on the pivotal clownage... edit... lol a 32" showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Ha ha, right ... It is flying in the face of a lot of climate conventions. That said, I do think the ridge in the west is in fact slightly farther west than ideal - that is by no means intended as the silver bullet reason for these warm solutions. Nor the general mise en science of this being more major pain in the ass, than a major storm... But, I get what Will/others are suggesting re the NAM's apparent 'talent' at seeing mid level warm intrusion events there... What I have a "teensy" problem with still, is that the NAM also has a NW bias over eastern N/A, with N turning amplitude. It's in the mid levels where that is notable, with vort trajectories tending to be first in line showing up over the N-W arc of plausible solutions. This strikes me as "maybe" some of that. I mean it's inCREdibly tedious to consider this, but... 2 degrees of longitude where ever the wind max(es) cross 40 N, means the difference between 4" ... 2" ...8"... Plus, whether cold stays anchored enough to lift wind concerns... jeez - lot riding on that. We still have 48 hours, when/where small corrections of that nature can fit. I cannot tell you how many times I have seen a warm 60 hour FOUS grid end up colder It's not anything anyone should hang their hat on to 'save the day' ... but you know. There's obviously an investment in the desire arc of those contributing to this social media platform, to save what can be saved ...all the way down to moral victories if need be. LOL. When we don't have a blocking high, it all comes down to mid level tracks, and the NAM has a history of being NW.Ahhh, yes. I always thought that the NAM’s ability to sniff out mid level warm intrusions was when there was a blocking high to the north. Hopefully your on to something. Perhaps the Euro has a clue. We hope and pray. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: not sure we get much sleet I think its snow maybe brief sleet to rain as of now weather.cod is almost the same Yeah. That makes sense. 10:1 won't be happening for most in any case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 That east trend we discussed is here . Those NAM runs to BGM ftl . Pack intact 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 If the idea is that all the good precip falls in 6 hours and that is snowfall rates of 2-3" an hour, I would definitely sell that. In my experience, the models are quick to spit out monster rates but then they don't materialize. Same thing with people predicting big ratios. Usually verifies as something more pedestrian. I still like 8-10" or so here if this thing hauls ass as much as it looks like it will. I agree. And snow growth doesn’t look great. Ratios probably will be crap. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Yeah. That makes sense. 10:1 won't be happening for most in any case I expect 80% 1:1 here 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That east trend we discussed is here . Those NAM runs to BGM ftl . Pack intact Did you look at the model? It's still through BGM. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 10 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: still got a few here Did you get 40+ rain yet? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, dendrite said: Did you look at the model? It's still through BGM. But did you see the 2ndary https://i.imgur.com/20MTLiV.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Did you get 40+ rain yet? Hoping the HRRR has the right idea this is for westfield but would be colder here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: But did you see the 2ndary https://i.imgur.com/20MTLiV.jpg These mesolows aren't your typical secondary redeveloping triple-point lows. These are little convective mesolows forming along the warm conveyor. They're not having an influence on your pack. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: But did you see the 2ndary https://i.imgur.com/20MTLiV.jpg Secondary will produce junk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, dendrite said: These mesolows aren't your typical secondary redeveloping triple-point lows. These are little convective mesolows forming along the warm conveyor. They're not having an influence on your pack. So will it melt out fully as you think ? Or will you not answer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 you're losing all of it 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: So will it melt out fully as you think ? Or will you not answer? Euro snow depth algorithm says you keep 2-4" of pack.. It's forecasting 6" tomorrow night for you though, but it has you starting with just .1 today, I'm sure you have more than that glacierized since we have about 50% coverage up to an 2" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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