dryslot Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What is your Lean in CT? Forward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I’m on mobile, how did the 12 Z runs look boys and girls? Did we get our 100 mile tic East with the primary? Yes, but only on the next 5 storms that were already whiffs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: This is going to be in and out of here relatively quickly. So I’m selling those modeled 1.5” QPF bombs in 6 hours in the form of snow. I could see a couple of hours of heavy here and maybe 4-5 hours around Gene, but I think there’s going to be a period where the models are indicating a ptype of snow, but the column below 850 is marginal or +1C near the surface and it’s just slobbering paste or catpaws mixed with rain. Eventually we all flip to liquid and the new pack becomes a slush puppy…especially down our way. That’s where I lean right now. There’s not much of a mechanism to hold the cold in. There’s a little in-situ CAD, but strong E flow can quickly erode that away. The large pressure falls are to our west so we’re not getting that northerly isallobaric component. It’s just a massive push of WAA in a short amount of time…except it’s backing in more from the east instead of the usual SW WAA we get in a SWFE. Unlike some, usually when you’re hopeless you’re right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 The GFS ptype maps on COD have me getting heavy snow at 51hr, but when you look at the sounding it’s +2C at H95. Date: 51 hour GFS valid 15Z MON 17 JAN 22 Station: 43.43,-71.62 Latitude: 43.43 Longitude: -71.62 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SFC 953 267 1.9 1.8 99 0.2 1.8 88 16 278.9 279.7 277.4 291.5 4.56 2 950 289 2.0 1.8 99 0.2 1.9 93 24 279.2 280.0 277.5 291.8 4.57 3 900 725 0.1 0.1 100 0.0 0.1 98 46 281.6 282.4 278.4 293.6 4.28 4 850 1182 -1.5 -1.6 99 0.1 -1.5 106 58 284.6 285.3 279.5 295.9 4.00 5 800 1663 -3.3 -3.5 99 0.2 -3.4 115 69 287.6 288.3 280.6 298.2 3.69 6 750 2172 -4.7 -5.0 98 0.3 -4.8 127 79 291.4 292.1 282.1 301.7 3.51 7 700 2715 -5.4 -5.8 97 0.4 -5.5 142 84 296.5 297.2 284.2 307.1 3.55 8 650 3294 -8.0 -8.5 96 0.5 -8.2 147 82 299.9 300.5 285.1 309.4 3.09 9 600 3912 -11.2 -11.9 95 0.6 -11.5 149 80 303.1 303.6 285.7 311.1 2.56 10 550 4574 -15.2 -15.7 96 0.5 -15.4 151 76 306.0 306.4 286.2 312.5 2.04 11 500 5288 -19.8 -20.3 95 0.5 -19.9 156 72 309.0 309.2 286.7 313.9 1.52 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Unlike some, usually when you’re hopeless you’re right. I'm not trying to poo poo it. I just think there's a lot of flags and I wouldn't be going aggressive onto the colder side of guidance. A lot has to go right for us to see big paste out of this. Phin's in another world with his east facing terrain which may help him squeeze out another 1F colder and more QPF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 The warm nose is Jimmy Durante sized 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Gene is a tough one...with his elevation and interior location a couple ticks colder and he could be in business for something bigger. But I just feel like this ends up something closer to the NAM. Of course the Euro is coming out now and it'll probably give him 15" in a few minutes. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duncanwxnh Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 12 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Unlike some, usually when you’re hopeless you’re right. I agree with you. The 'hope' side of me was pushing the logical/science side :-(. We have the day off in the State so it's always a good day for snow. Oh well, the Old School New Englander in me will hope our little corner of the world (Concord, Boscawen, Northfield) will remain unique and fun in our weather forecasting. :-) Bottom line, BE SAFE everyone on Monday - Jack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 A couple tics of the messenger shuffle on the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: She’ll be all gone I guess Ain't happening James Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Even the futurecast found a way to screw us 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Euro looks great for MBY. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Epic Euro NAM battle. At least it’s fun to watch to see which one folds. They’ve both been so consistent. All about the arctic air depth and magnitude?Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: A couple tics of the messenger shuffle on the 12z Euro. Maybe a tick colder, but not much difference. What a QPF bomb though...like 1.25" in 6hrs. Whoever is getting snow in that will be getting 2-3"/hr. Romping in Randolph. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 EURO was a smidge colder in western MA during the heart of the event. There looks to be at least a few hours of heavy sleet with strong winds. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Maybe a tick colder, but not much difference. What a QPF bomb though...like 1.25" in 6hrs. Whoever is getting snow in that will be getting 2-3"/hr. Romping in Randolph. This one hurts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 10 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Even the futurecast found a way to screw us The quintessential cosmic dildo 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, dryslot said: This one hurts. Sorry bud. Maybe you will get a positive bust. I've been watching your area, it's been close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Might be initially colder ORH to Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 It's more than a Nam/Euro battle. Many of the others are closer to the Nam track than the Euro. So the Euro is either on to something or will cave eventually. Time will certainly tell relatively shortly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Ain't happening James I’m thinking all grass but it the flip back to snow Monday night drops an inch or so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, dryslot said: This one hurts. I've been waiting for my paste bomb, but I either end up too far west or just a little too warm. At least I know how to line up my deformation bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 32 minutes ago, dryslot said: Forward? Lean back lean back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: Gene is a tough one...with his elevation and interior location a couple ticks colder and he could be in business for something bigger. But I just feel like this ends up something closer to the NAM. Of course the Euro is coming out now and it'll probably give him 15" in a few minutes. lol I do wonder if the QPF on that warm conveyor belt is a bit over-modeled. Often we see those like 1” in 6 hour stuff end up verifying a bit less. I know we’ve seen it in colder snowstorms where models have a wall of 0.75-1.25” in 6 hours that ends up around 0.50-0.75” or something… still a heavy band tipping the bucket but not quite to the modeled amounts. The orographics into the Whites though is different than say a push through SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Might be initially colder ORH to Kevin. Lol, trying to give ORH 8-10” this run. Not buying it. Euro is going to fold like a cheap suit to the NAM I bet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Lol, trying to give ORH 8-10” this run. Not buying it. Euro is going to fold like a cheap suit to the NAM I bet. Same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: Maybe a tick colder, but not much difference. What a QPF bomb though...like 1.25" in 6hrs. Whoever is getting snow in that will be getting 2-3"/hr. Romping in Randolph. I would’ve told family we’ve got a pipe burst in Randolph and need to get up there to fix it in a hurry. Any number of excuses to return there from MD . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Thump then the dumps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, Greg said: Same here. I don’t either. Just initially was colder it seemed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, powderfreak said: I would’ve told family we’ve got a pipe burst in Randolph and need to get up there to fix it in a hurry. Any number of excuses to return there from MD . If I don't give my wife a week back in MD once in a while to see the family she will probably stop coming with me up there so this is the tradeoff. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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