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Monitoring a potential important TV to East Coastal storm: Jan 17


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19 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

Maybe not. But I think that if the way this has turned out was modeled that way to start with, this thread wouldn’t likely be populated with people from CT or Massachusetts tracking it. Unless maybe it’s such a big storm it warrants heavy discussion from outside of its snow impact zone. It’s just my feeling tho.

This is a weather forum. People are going to discuss a large storm that has some impact on the region even if it’s not a blizzard in their backyard. 

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9 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I think that some people think that 2015 has a high chance of being repeated. I do not. 

I dont think anyone here except maybe one or two of the most star-eyed weenies thinks 2015 is happening this year. 
 

There are plenty of other examples though of non-El Nino late blooming winters like 2012-2013, 2000-2001, 1955-56, 1966-67, etc. 

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56 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

We need to figure out what to do with the nuclear waste. 

Store it with the used solar batteries we don't know what to do with.

27 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

GYX has 12-18 for North Conway. Really nice event for them if they stay all snow. NAM flips them, I think.

Wildcat stands a chance.

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16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You want to know what’s lame…you’re dumb ass posts!  It’s only half way through January you silly fool. And Maybe it rats, that’s certainly a possibility.  But that’s not a given at all. We have a great pattern setting up. If that weren’t the case, then I’d be a lil more worried. But the point that you’re missing, is that it’s January 15, with a very very nice pattern incoming. Let’s see how it shakes out?  And if it bombs…we’ll give you credit for the early call pal. Now Go have another shot. 
 

Go to the panic thread, and vent all you want. 

It’s totally gonna bomb…..lol….love you man….out

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I dont think anyone here except maybe one or two of the most star-eyed weenies thinks 2015 is happening this year. 
 

There are plenty of other examples though of non-El Nino late blooming winters like 2012-2013, 2000-2001, 1955-56, 1966-67, etc. 

is 2015 the year Boston got totally dumped on so much they didn’t know where to put the snow?  Maybe that was the year I went to sharks bruins in a blizzard…..I’ll have to check

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I dont think anyone here except maybe one or two of the most star-eyed weenies thinks 2015 is happening this year. 
 

There are plenty of other examples though of non-El Nino late blooming winters like 2012-2013, 2000-2001, 1955-56, 1966-67, etc. 

that’s the point I was trying to make.  But we have intoxicated1972 screaming ratter every couple days, along with a few others. Take it to panic at this early stage.  A month from now in 2/15, if we’ve failed at getting anything meaningful…we’ll give ‘em credit. 

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Meanwhile up here in the Lakes Region of NH this looks like quite a storm if we can stay all snow and not mix at the end.  12Z GFS puts out almost 1.60" liquid.  I assume good ratios for the first part of the storm.  Usually I am downsloped from the Whites to the NE but this has a more easterly component so more qpf.  

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I dont think anyone here except maybe one or two of the most star-eyed weenies thinks 2015 is happening this year. 
 

There are plenty of other examples though of non-El Nino late blooming winters like 2012-2013, 2000-2001, 1955-56, 1966-67, etc. 

East Based La nina seasons tend to do it.

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9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

that’s the point I was trying to make.  But we have intoxicated1972 screaming ratter every couple days, along with a few others. Take it to panic at this early stage.  A month from now in 2/15, if we’ve failed at getting anything meaningful…we’ll give ‘em credit. 

Whistlin Dixie lol…..sounds like a month ago when folks were like “if we haven’t turned it around a month from now……” lol……it’s a rat….regardless of wut happens……I embrace rats

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11 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Meanwhile up here in the Lakes Region of NH this looks like quite a storm if we can stay all snow and not mix at the end.  12Z GFS puts out almost 1.60" liquid.  I assume good ratios for the first part of the storm.  Usually I am downsloped from the Whites to the NE but this has a more easterly component so more qpf.  

I’m leaning 6-8” up there as of now.

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Just now, dendrite said:

No...lol

Lollies to 12

in all serious, there actually is still time for this to trend but I fear the trend will be in the wrong direction. But we could get a little trends to the east that could help us out. My expectation is that the winter storm watch comes down in the afternoon package though

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5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Messenger shuffle is coming but its not really going to make a lot of difference, The SLP is not going to move offshore.

A couple of hours of heavy snow that can cool the column while the south east inflow is interrupted could be the difference between 4 inches or 8 inches in a lot of places. I figure if I can get 6 inches which can soak up the rain and then freeze, that wouldn’t be so bad especially if we get some snow in the next two weeks.

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1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Well they would be better off using other examples of winters that featured a turn around.

06-07 would work for NNE.  We had 78.5" here after Jan 15 (and 5" more on the 15th) and only 00-01 had more for that period - 98".  16-17 was close, only 0.4" behind 06-07.

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11 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

A couple of hours of heavy snow that can cool the column while the south east inflow is interrupted could be the difference between 4 inches or 8 inches in a lot of places. I figure if I can get 6 inches which can soak up the rain and then freeze, that wouldn’t be so bad especially if we get some snow in the next two weeks.

This is going to be in and out of here relatively quickly. So I’m selling those modeled 1.5” QPF bombs in 6 hours in the form of snow. I could see a couple of hours of heavy here and maybe 4-5 hours around Gene, but I think there’s going to be a period where the models are indicating a ptype of snow, but the column below 850 is marginal or +1C near the surface and it’s just slobbering paste or catpaws mixed with rain. Eventually we all flip to liquid and the new pack becomes a slush puppy…especially down our way. That’s where I lean right now. There’s not much of a mechanism to hold the cold in. There’s a little in-situ CAD, but strong E flow can quickly erode that away. The large pressure falls are to our west so we’re not getting that northerly isallobaric component. It’s just a massive push of WAA in a short amount of time…except it’s backing in more from the east instead of the usual SW WAA we get in a SWFE. 

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