Greg Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, Great Snow 1717 said: I think that some people think that 2015 has a high chance of being repeated. I do not. Me neither. I sell that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Greg said: Me neither. I sell that. Sell 24/7/365 for years to come.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 19 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: Maybe not. But I think that if the way this has turned out was modeled that way to start with, this thread wouldn’t likely be populated with people from CT or Massachusetts tracking it. Unless maybe it’s such a big storm it warrants heavy discussion from outside of its snow impact zone. It’s just my feeling tho. This is a weather forum. People are going to discuss a large storm that has some impact on the region even if it’s not a blizzard in their backyard. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I think that some people think that 2015 has a high chance of being repeated. I do not. I dont think anyone here except maybe one or two of the most star-eyed weenies thinks 2015 is happening this year. There are plenty of other examples though of non-El Nino late blooming winters like 2012-2013, 2000-2001, 1955-56, 1966-67, etc. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 56 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: We need to figure out what to do with the nuclear waste. Store it with the used solar batteries we don't know what to do with. 27 minutes ago, PhineasC said: GYX has 12-18 for North Conway. Really nice event for them if they stay all snow. NAM flips them, I think. Wildcat stands a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I mostly lurk to learn all I can about the science of meteorology but the entertainment factor is priceless. Go Pats!! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: You want to know what’s lame…you’re dumb ass posts! It’s only half way through January you silly fool. And Maybe it rats, that’s certainly a possibility. But that’s not a given at all. We have a great pattern setting up. If that weren’t the case, then I’d be a lil more worried. But the point that you’re missing, is that it’s January 15, with a very very nice pattern incoming. Let’s see how it shakes out? And if it bombs…we’ll give you credit for the early call pal. Now Go have another shot. Go to the panic thread, and vent all you want. It’s totally gonna bomb…..lol….love you man….out 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I dont think anyone here except maybe one or two of the most star-eyed weenies thinks 2015 is happening this year. There are plenty of other examples though of non-El Nino late blooming winters like 2012-2013, 2000-2001, 1955-56, 1966-67, etc. is 2015 the year Boston got totally dumped on so much they didn’t know where to put the snow? Maybe that was the year I went to sharks bruins in a blizzard…..I’ll have to check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I dont think anyone here except maybe one or two of the most star-eyed weenies thinks 2015 is happening this year. There are plenty of other examples though of non-El Nino late blooming winters like 2012-2013, 2000-2001, 1955-56, 1966-67, etc. that’s the point I was trying to make. But we have intoxicated1972 screaming ratter every couple days, along with a few others. Take it to panic at this early stage. A month from now in 2/15, if we’ve failed at getting anything meaningful…we’ll give ‘em credit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Meanwhile up here in the Lakes Region of NH this looks like quite a storm if we can stay all snow and not mix at the end. 12Z GFS puts out almost 1.60" liquid. I assume good ratios for the first part of the storm. Usually I am downsloped from the Whites to the NE but this has a more easterly component so more qpf. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, ice1972 said: It’s totally gonna bomb…..lol….love you man….out Nah…not feeling a bomb or ratter yet. But that’s your call, and we’ve noted it pal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I dont think anyone here except maybe one or two of the most star-eyed weenies thinks 2015 is happening this year. There are plenty of other examples though of non-El Nino late blooming winters like 2012-2013, 2000-2001, 1955-56, 1966-67, etc. East Based La nina seasons tend to do it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 11 minutes ago, WxFreak11 said: I mostly lurk to learn all I can about the science of meteorology but the entertainment factor is priceless. Go Pats!! Hang in there, dude...its coming IMO. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: that’s the point I was trying to make. But we have intoxicated1972 screaming ratter every couple days, along with a few others. Take it to panic at this early stage. A month from now in 2/15, if we’ve failed at getting anything meaningful…we’ll give ‘em credit. Whistlin Dixie lol…..sounds like a month ago when folks were like “if we haven’t turned it around a month from now……” lol……it’s a rat….regardless of wut happens……I embrace rats 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 11 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Meanwhile up here in the Lakes Region of NH this looks like quite a storm if we can stay all snow and not mix at the end. 12Z GFS puts out almost 1.60" liquid. I assume good ratios for the first part of the storm. Usually I am downsloped from the Whites to the NE but this has a more easterly component so more qpf. I’m leaning 6-8” up there as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 25 minutes ago, dendrite said: I’m leaning 6-8” up there as of now. So you’re basically saying that number is likely to go up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: So you’re basically saying that number is likely to go up No...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, dendrite said: No...lol Lollies to 12 in all serious, there actually is still time for this to trend but I fear the trend will be in the wrong direction. But we could get a little trends to the east that could help us out. My expectation is that the winter storm watch comes down in the afternoon package though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Messenger shuffle is coming but its not really going to make a lot of difference, The SLP is not going to move offshore. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 hour ago, dryslot said: Right now it looks like a repeat of last year. I would take that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I would take that Two big ones last year here....we take in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: Messenger shuffle is coming but its not really going to make a lot of difference, The SLP is not going to move offshore. A couple of hours of heavy snow that can cool the column while the south east inflow is interrupted could be the difference between 4 inches or 8 inches in a lot of places. I figure if I can get 6 inches which can soak up the rain and then freeze, that wouldn’t be so bad especially if we get some snow in the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Well they would be better off using other examples of winters that featured a turn around. 06-07 would work for NNE. We had 78.5" here after Jan 15 (and 5" more on the 15th) and only 00-01 had more for that period - 98". 16-17 was close, only 0.4" behind 06-07. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I would take that 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Two big ones last year here....we take in a heartbeat. Well i was talking about here and i certainly would not take it. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 50 minutes ago, dendrite said: I’m leaning 6-8” up there as of now. What is your Lean in CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What is your Lean in CT? Probably same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 hour ago, ice1972 said: It’s totally gonna bomb…..lol….love you man….out Careful....he's coming for you... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 21 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I would take that I think I had 2 feet by New Year’s last year so I have a lot of catching up to do this year. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I’m on mobile, how did the 12 Z runs look boys and girls? Did we get our 100 mile tic East with the primary? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 11 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: A couple of hours of heavy snow that can cool the column while the south east inflow is interrupted could be the difference between 4 inches or 8 inches in a lot of places. I figure if I can get 6 inches which can soak up the rain and then freeze, that wouldn’t be so bad especially if we get some snow in the next two weeks. This is going to be in and out of here relatively quickly. So I’m selling those modeled 1.5” QPF bombs in 6 hours in the form of snow. I could see a couple of hours of heavy here and maybe 4-5 hours around Gene, but I think there’s going to be a period where the models are indicating a ptype of snow, but the column below 850 is marginal or +1C near the surface and it’s just slobbering paste or catpaws mixed with rain. Eventually we all flip to liquid and the new pack becomes a slush puppy…especially down our way. That’s where I lean right now. There’s not much of a mechanism to hold the cold in. There’s a little in-situ CAD, but strong E flow can quickly erode that away. The large pressure falls are to our west so we’re not getting that northerly isallobaric component. It’s just a massive push of WAA in a short amount of time…except it’s backing in more from the east instead of the usual SW WAA we get in a SWFE. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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