Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 Heh, Brooklynwx99 beat me to it - yeah, don't worry about that run.. Not sure folks are getting the message: follow the ens mean, and have fun with the op runs. Not the other way around. I mean, sometimes ...yeah, the op's can lock in? 24 hours ago they had virtually nothing... so this isn't really one of those circumstances 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 This would probably be a 12+er from PHL to PWM ... cold would be the only limiting factor - which who knows at this range. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Based on the GEFS, the op going up C PA is a fantasy for NNE peeps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 26 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the GEFS actually has stronger confluent flow over the NE than 12z… this will allow for a farther SE track even if the shortwave is more amplified the GEFS, as a result, shows that the OP remains a significant western outlier. the vast majority of the members are near or just inside the BM. even the most W members aren’t really close to PA where the OP had it Great points. Thanks. Love the great meteorology that you imploy. These are the important take-aways. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 27 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Most of the strong members are to the west of the mean though ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 13 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: 2/14/07 redux? You just sent shudders down my spine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: ? Those pair of boobs are in a great spot. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 back on 1/15-1/20 from CA so perfect timing for a biblical.. * 75 here today 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 This thing'll be congrats E MA by Friday. The inland track is a major outlier. The "pounds SNE" track is much, much more common from these coastals. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 What’s the timing on this at this point for SNE? I know the timing could slow down or speed up, being it’s quite far out at the moment. Are we talking It coming in Monday during the day? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: ? I dunno i was looking at TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Some models have it starting around 03z Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: This thing'll be congrats E MA by Friday. The inland track is a major outlier. The "pounds SNE" track is much, much more common from these coastals. There is at least one Great Lakes met who thinks it's going even further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: What’s the timing on this at this point for SNE? I know the timing could slow down or speed up, being it’s quite far out at the moment. Are we talking It coming in Monday during the day? Sunday night into Monday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, mreaves said: There is at least one Great Lakes met who thinks it's going even further west. That could be. The track depicted by the GFS just seems rare. Never seems to work out that way, although I'm sure the electric brain guys like Will have examples where it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: What’s the timing on this at this point for SNE? I know the timing could slow down or speed up, being it’s quite far out at the moment. Are we talking It coming in Monday during the day? Yes. Or as Kev calls it, Thursday night. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 11 minutes ago, dryslot said: Some models have it starting around 03z Monday. Thats 10 pm Sunday night right? Really? That seems a lil early no? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 39 minutes ago, PhineasC said: This thing'll be congrats E MA by Friday. The inland track is a major outlier. The "pounds SNE" track is much, much more common from these coastals. This looks to have more of a trajectory that gains latitude so even if E MA does well I think this will go into the Gulf of Maine and still be good for your area over to Maine…not one of those redevelopers where it squirts east after reaching near the benchmark or ACK. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 27 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Thats 10 pm Sunday night right? Really? That seems a lil early no? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This looks to have more of a trajectory that gains latitude so even if E MA does well I think this will go into the Gulf of Maine and still be good for your area over to Maine…not one of those redevelopers where it squirts east after reaching near the benchmark or ACK. Yeah, This does not have the ENE slider look to it at all as depicted, I feel pretty good on this one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 41 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Thats 10 pm Sunday night right? Really? That seems a lil early no? It’s trucking along. Whenever it hits, rain or snow, it will be in and out. Unless the initial sw escapes east and the trailing vort tugs it back west and effectively slows it down some, we probably won’t see huge numbers outside of the resorts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Yeah, This does not have the ENE slider look to it at all as depicted, I feel pretty good on this one. It’s been a while since we had a crusher for your area and SNE at the same time but they actually historically aren’t uncommon at all…just been getting screwed recently, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: It’s been a while since we had a crusher for your area and SNE at the same time but they actually historically aren’t uncommon at all…just been getting screwed recently, lol. Yeah, More often then not, If the Mid Atlantic and NY or even BOS are getting snow, I generally know where i stand in that, Last weekend was the ENE track so sitting back here at 44/70 is not a good place for that if its close to the BM or just SE of it, That's why where this one is doesn't bother me any, Even if it tracks NE we would do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 59 minutes ago, Hoth said: Yes. Or as Kev calls it, Thursday night. Makes sense why he thinks this is a slow mover then…Thur night thru Mon. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 17 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Makes sense why he thinks this is a slow mover then…Thur night thru Mon. The 1-3” regionwide Friday showing up now just morphs into Sunday night you’re thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 How often has the operational matched the ensemble extreme outlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 hour ago, PhineasC said: This thing'll be congrats E MA by Friday. The inland track is a major outlier. The "pounds SNE" track is much, much more common from these coastals. I'd place the goal posts from just inside the BM to around PYM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 56 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This looks to have more of a trajectory that gains latitude so even if E MA does well I think this will go into the Gulf of Maine and still be good for your area over to Maine…not one of those redevelopers where it squirts east after reaching near the benchmark or ACK. Yea, it's not getting shunted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 35 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s trucking along. Whenever it hits, rain or snow, it will be in and out. Unless the initial sw escapes east and the trailing vort tugs it back west and effectively slows it down some, we probably won’t see huge numbers outside of the resorts. Lol.. This past storm dropped 14” in 6 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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