Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,614
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Vesuvius
    Newest Member
    Vesuvius
    Joined

Monitoring a potential important TV to East Coastal storm: Jan 17


Typhoon Tip
 Share

Recommended Posts

Eagerly awaiting the first flakes from what looks to be a doozy here. I knew those NAM runs from a couple of days ago were way too warm as it overdoes WAA in storms with strong dynamical cooling processes. It's best with run of the mill SWFEs, but not these storms.

The E to SE LLJ slamming into the Greens is a big win, giving my spot the maximum possible upslope assist. Modeling is averaging around 2 inches of QPF here from both the front and back of the storm, pretty much all of it snow. Worst case scenario, there may be some brief mix around the time the occlusion comes through here from the south late morning, early afternoon tomorrow, but the 18z 3-km NAM keeps me all snow and has a max temperature of around 32-33° F before we start getting CAA from the south tomorrow afternoon. 

Boy do we need this! This is white gold for the ski areas and winter sports around here as it's been a rather anemic winter so far.

  • Like 14
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It a rare day when I don't want it to snow but being a plow driver with covid right now really has me rooting for rain. All my accounts are in the torrington area. Can anyone tell me if you think all the snow that falls will be washed away at least on paved surfaces? I dont think i can even sit in a plow truck for 30 mins right now never mind my full route that takes about 8 hours. 

 

  • Like 1
  • Sad 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, WhiteLawns said:

It a rare day when I don't want it to snow but being a plow driver with covid right now really has me rooting for rain. All my accounts are in the torrington area. Can anyone tell me if you think all the snow that falls will be washed away at least on paved surfaces? I dont think i can even sit in a plow truck for 30 mins right now never mind my full route that takes about 8 hours. 

 

Planning on cleaning up everything on our routes before we get too much rain, don’t like the thought of pushing water/slush mess, we’re all commercial though….. I would probably let residential driveways melt  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Johnno said:

Planning on cleaning up everything on our routes before we get too much rain, don’t like the thought of pushing water/slush mess, we’re all commercial though….. I would probably let residential driveways melt  

Yeah I’m only truly worried about my commercial account. Which is a 22 house homeowners association. I do the driveways and the road. It’s a 65 and older community and they have all the time in the world to complain so I have to make sure they are all happy all the time haha.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, WhiteLawns said:

It a rare day when I don't want it to snow but being a plow driver with covid right now really has me rooting for rain. All my accounts are in the torrington area. Can anyone tell me if you think all the snow that falls will be washed away at least on paved surfaces? I dont think i can even sit in a plow truck for 30 mins right now never mind my full route that takes about 8 hours. 

 

Hope you feel better soon!

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, wxmanmitch said:

Eagerly awaiting the first flakes from what looks to be a doozy here. I knew those NAM runs from a couple of days ago were way too warm as it overdoes WAA in storms with strong dynamical cooling processes. It's best with run of the mill SWFEs, but not these storms.

The E to SE LLJ slamming into the Greens is a big win, giving my spot the maximum possible upslope assist. Modeling is averaging around 2 inches of QPF here from both the front and back of the storm, pretty much all of it snow. Worst case scenario, there may be some brief mix around the time the occlusion comes through here from the south late morning, early afternoon tomorrow, but the 18z 3-km NAM keeps me all snow and has a max temperature of around 32-33° F before we start getting CAA from the south tomorrow afternoon. 

Boy do we need this! This is white gold for the ski areas and winter sports around here as it's been a rather anemic winter so far.

ALY bumped up totals a bit in SVT. Went from 4-5" earlier here to 12" now. I don't see that happening in the valley.  Also some 18-24" in the Stratton zone, this thing is moving pretty quick for 2ft. Seems a liittle aggressive, even if we can add some backside upslope. Going to be interesting to see this how this plays out across the area with all the terrain nuances that will be even more in play than normal with this event.

StormTotalSnow.thumb.jpg.6f33c022f8325ddaf83d71b1de803264.jpg

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, backedgeapproaching said:

ALY bumped up totals a bit in SVT. Went from 4-5" earlier here to 12" now. I don't see that happening in the valley.  Also some 18-24" in the Stratton zone, this thing is moving pretty quick for 2ft. Seems a liittle aggressive, even if we can add some backside upslope. Going to be interesting to see this how this plays out across the area with all the terrain nuances that will be even more in play than normal with this event.

StormTotalSnow.thumb.jpg.6f33c022f8325ddaf83d71b1de803264.jpg

 

 

Yeah, GYX trimmed back the 18-24 stuff for their zones which I think makes sense. This thing has mixing issues and is hauling ass. Doesn't seem like something with widespread 15"+ totals. I know the idea is 6-7 hours of monstrous rates but we all know a couple hours of that will be spent on spottier stuff like always.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Johnno said:

NBC30 just expanded the 3-6” range further south in CT and WTNH added a 6”+ for northern Litchfield and northwest Hartford county… maybe we can pull a small positive bust before the deluge following and end with a gain

It may not stick around, but every inch counts towards the seasonal total.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 inches and some decent bursts down here in MD. More than I expected, actually. The snow laid on every surface immediately too which is pretty rare here. Usually hours of time and a quarter inch of precip are wasted cooling the fricking earth as millions of precious snowflakes make the ultimate sacrifice. Heavy rain overnight but all snow for now. Pingers in DC though I think. So it's coming.

  • Like 2
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, wxmanmitch said:

Eagerly awaiting the first flakes from what looks to be a doozy here. I knew those NAM runs from a couple of days ago were way too warm as it overdoes WAA in storms with strong dynamical cooling processes. It's best with run of the mill SWFEs, but not these storms.

The E to SE LLJ slamming into the Greens is a big win, giving my spot the maximum possible upslope assist. Modeling is averaging around 2 inches of QPF here from both the front and back of the storm, pretty much all of it snow. Worst case scenario, there may be some brief mix around the time the occlusion comes through here from the south late morning, early afternoon tomorrow, but the 18z 3-km NAM keeps me all snow and has a max temperature of around 32-33° F before we start getting CAA from the south tomorrow afternoon. 

Boy do we need this! This is white gold for the ski areas and winter sports around here as it's been a rather anemic winter so far.

Pretty sweet spot to be. Old Dutch Hill should get smoked.

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

54 minutes ago, Johnno said:

Planning on cleaning up everything on our routes before we get too much rain, don’t like the thought of pushing water/slush mess, we’re all commercial though….. I would probably let residential driveways melt  

In Torrington? He will have an icy mess if left

Link to comment
Share on other sites

49 minutes ago, WhiteLawns said:

Yeah I’m only truly worried about my commercial account. Which is a 22 house homeowners association. I do the driveways and the road. It’s a 65 and older community and they have all the time in the world to complain so I have to make sure they are all happy all the time haha.

Damn hope you feel better.  No one to fill in?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

OT- I watch reruns of 'Law & Order' from the 90s and 00s.  Filmed on location NYC.  Half the time, actual snow or snow on the ground in Manhattan.  That did not happen in the 1970s when I lived outside NYC, and it doesn't happen now.

 

Is there a grand cycle, some multi-decadal oscillation, or bad decades for snow?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Is it worth it to have a now-cast/Obs thread ?

19/7 ... near full moon dimly visible/halo

Fwiw, the 22:27 analysis by WPC gives the impression that the GFS was slightly too aggressive in lowering surface pressure over eastern/central NE...  That's 1:33 before 00z, which is perfectly comparative, but is close; it was 2 mb lower over western Ma, and had the center of the high considerable farther east of that ob position.   Not sure if that's worth the mention...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...