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Monitoring a potential important TV to East Coastal storm: Jan 17


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  On 1/16/2022 at 9:05 PM, dendrite said:

We’ll be inverted during the snow so don’t worry about the wind. Maybe some gusts later in the day. We’ll flip to rain before the slot…guarantee it. Not trying to burst your bubble here. :lol:

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Your posts have been very confident in every facet . Like you know what’s going to happen 

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  On 1/16/2022 at 9:22 PM, TheMainer said:

Did 400 miles this weekend, hit opening weekend at Libby camps then up to the trains and back Friday then did a loop to Jackman Saturday, we stayed off the trails a lot but getting in and out of Jackman was the thinnest I've seen it, rideable buy barely. Can't see how anyone in their right mind rode through the forks this weekend, luckily we have a bypass for that. 

Just need my 6 inches of paste and I'm thrilled, we'll be in decent shape then

 

IMG_20220114_120836_copy_1008x756.jpg

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Cant even imagine trying to get Berry's store down in the forks..........:(

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  On 1/16/2022 at 9:05 PM, dendrite said:

We’ll be inverted during the snow so don’t worry about the wind. Maybe some gusts later in the day. We’ll flip to rain before the slot…guarantee it. Not trying to burst your bubble here. :lol:

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actually we have a 1500 ft driveway that is subject to serious drifted.  Best case for me is heavy snow, get the tractor going to snow blow the driveway before any real rain gets into it and makes it hard to snowblow the driveway.  Get the driveway clear and let the drizzle crust up the pack so we don't have keep snowblowing drifts.  Though blowing snow is great fun, I want the crust before the winds get going.  I take it you aren't as enthusiastic as GYX's latest update.

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  On 1/16/2022 at 9:34 PM, mahk_webstah said:

actually we have a 1500 ft driveway that is subject to serious drifted.  Best case for me is heavy snow, get the tractor going to snow blow the driveway before any real rain gets into it and makes it hard to snowblow the driveway.  Get the driveway clear and let the drizzle crust up the pack so we don't have keep snowblowing drifts.  Though blowing snow is great fun, I want the crust before the winds get going.  I take it you aren't as enthusiastic as GYX's latest update.

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idk...reading the AFD now and it aligns with my thoughts.

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  Quote
Narrow band of warm, moist air being pulled into the low
pressure system will translate northeast across our forecast
area during the morning hours on Monday. A strong low level jet
will be adding fuel to the system to produce heavy precipitation
rates over the period of 4 to 8 hours. At the surface, the very
cold air mass we`ve been dealing with the last few days will be
hard to shove away by the less dense warm air. The easterly low
level flow and inverted low level thermal profile will promote
damming east of the mountains and the formation of a coastal
front between this colder air and the more maritime air being
pulled in off the Atlantic. The strong surge of moisture into
this coastal front will likely be the source of the most
intense precipitation through the morning, with the coastal
front making progress inland with time. Thus we will see a
transition from heavy snow to rain as the coastal front marches
inland, with the precipitation itself ending rather quickly as
as the dry slot moves in aloft. We could see a period of drizzle
or freezing drizzle (depending on the temperature in each
location) after the dry slot moves through, although it should
be rather insignificant compared to the heavier precipitation
that falls just ahead of it.

Behind the coastal front, the low levels will be less inverted
allowing greater access to the extreme low level jet above, thus
bringing the threat for some high winds. This threat will be
greatest at the immediate coastline, but stronger wind gusts
will be possible further inland as well once the coastal front
arrives. Current High Wind Warning covers this threat well and
will continue.

As for the snowfall itself, I think the biggest factor here is
the intense snowfall rates expected as the surge of moisture
slams into the coastal front. Snowfall rates of 1 to 3 inches
per hour are likely which is enough to overwhelm road clearing
operations and create more difficult driving conditions than
usual. As a result, we were a bit more liberal than normal in
placing Winter Storm Warnings as these heavy snowfall rates will
create very difficult driving conditions for a period of a few
hours Monday morning, even if the total snowfall is a bit less
than 6 inches. The change over to rain on top of the snow will
also make for more slippery conditions as well.
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  On 1/16/2022 at 9:40 PM, mahk_webstah said:

they increased the amounts on the map and in the zones.  they seem more confident on the 1-3/hour rates.  3-5 hours of that = 6-12

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They upgraded to warnings but admitted they may not meet the threshold, but went with them anyway because of the intensity of snow rates in the morning. We'll see. I mean I had 5-8" for us IIRC.

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  On 1/16/2022 at 9:42 PM, dendrite said:

They upgraded to warnings but admitted they may not meet the threshold, but went with them anyway because of the intensity of snow rates in the morning. We'll see. I mean I had 5-8" for us IIRC.

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I hadn't seen your recent accum thoughts.  I remember you were thinking 3-5 would be lucky a couple days ago as everything was warming.  We have managed a snowpack for a month, and it will get even more glaciated by Tuesday morn.  I was out on Walker Pond today, walking around.  Really beautiful, feels like deep winter.  In an unlucky winter we have at least felt like winter, and this storm will help given the long range forecast.

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  On 1/16/2022 at 9:46 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

Sitting in an igloo tent thing at a restaurant in Central ORH county MA.  Air temp was 25 when we parked.  The space heaters aren’t keeping up.  Thank god for alchohol 

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We went there in the Spring when temps were in the 40's, good food there.

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  On 1/16/2022 at 9:42 PM, dendrite said:

They upgraded to warnings but admitted they may not meet the threshold, but went with them anyway because of the intensity of snow rates in the morning. We'll see. I mean I had 5-8" for us IIRC.

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They Tend to over forecast amounts about 80% of the time compared to what will fall in “bigger events “ I’ve noticed . 

seen it for several years now 

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