Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: There's going to be big bust potential with the clowns given the precip rates and deep layers in the low levels approaching +1C. The clowns could be calling 2 hours of 0.20"/hr @ 34F 4" of snow when it may not be accumulating much anymore. Like Will said, it's an interesting nowcast. My intuition is to undercut the clowns a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, Modfan2 said: Do you think a longer period of IP/ZR? Really cold to start in many areas No, I don’t think ZR/IP will be much of a big deal at all in SNE. The warmth between 925-sfc comes in before it does aloft. So I think it goes almost straight to rain from snow…maybe a very brief period of ZR/IP for a few spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, Greg said: Not sure either. It could go from a heavy snow to rain without much sleet getting in at all. Interesting situation. The duration of the true snowfall rates of the front end and rain will be paramount to how it all plays out. yup even an hour or two will make a difference.. ill be at work tonight.. will be interesting coming home in the morning I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 18 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: definitely cooled above I was just looking at the lower levels 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Meanwhile on my end of this we just got a tornado warning for a cell coming NE at the the southern end of Lake Okeechobee 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massplow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 I havnt paid much attention for the past few days. Will there be any accumulation tonight in the Foxboro-Boston area? Trying to figure out if parking lots will need to be plowed before it switches to rain or if this is still gonna be mostly rain in this area as I was expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, Massplow said: I havnt paid much attention for the past few days. Will there be any accumulation tonight in the Foxboro-Boston area? Trying to figure out if parking lots will need to be plowed before it switches to rain or if this is still gonna be mostly rain in this area as I was expecting. Maybe Foxboro has a couple, but it would be washed away most likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 There is one more type of map we don't really talk about or go over much on these forums but the 12KM and 3KM have a "positive Snow Depth Change" feature. Not sure how accurate it is or what its' algorithms take into consideration but, it shows a lower amount of snow left over than the snowfall forecast. Not sure either how much it has verified in the past. Just brought it up because many want to know how much snow will be left after the rain or any sleet at all. So, check it out if you want, even post them if so. Just another tool to merely look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 It is an interesting nowcast. You can see some of the mesos like the ARW2 really warm CT, but then it sort of slows and becomes more elevation dependent north of ORH like Will alluded too. Almost looks like it shows some warmth from downsloping too near HFD and ALB. Maybe for Kevin his elevation helps a bit as the lower spots warm through the 30s. I think it depends how fast it comes in too. If it’s like a wall of precipitation and not too banded, that helps too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 That is a big period of omega below the DGZ...no surprise models are spitting out over 1" in 6hrs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Unless you have a jackpot and none changeover fetish, I’d be happy from Dave on north and west. I’m sure Dave will meh it at first, but then he’ll post wintry scenes of walking the dog and his snow covered dirt path of a street. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, dendrite said: That is a big period of omega below the DGZ...no surprise models are spitting out over 1" in 6hrs. We flag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 20 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: yup even an hour or two will make a difference.. ill be at work tonight.. will be interesting coming home in the morning I think Yea, I would save the time and call out for next Sun-Mon's storm lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: That is a big period of omega below the DGZ...no surprise models are spitting out over 1" in 6hrs. Is this like when Kevin gets 2-4 and Union and Stafford gets a 12”? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Is this like when Kevin gets 2-4 and Union and Stafford gets a 12”? Ummm.. that has never happened. Not even remotely . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tolland Death Band Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ummm.. that has never happened. Not even remotely . There are times tho where we go to rain at 34 and union/Stafford stays freezing. Seen a few I-84 highway debacles up there in marginal setups. how much are you expecting tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 hour ago, JC-CT said: Bro..you gotta understand, it's not just about latitude (or longitude) for this event. The litchfield hills have 750', some places 1000', of elevation on you. In thermally marginal events, the snow totals will look like a terrain map. Just how it is. I know that, I just didn’t mention it. I promise I grew up where elevation (and position and proximity to mountain) is EVERYTHING. I see the pattern in modeling that resembles a lesser version of that bizarre 1992 event where some locations above 200 feet got many inches and ct valley got almost nothing. But elevations aren’t the only thing in play. But if 230 feet (my spot) is enough to garner some goods then I’d love it. Your enthusiasm is nice so I guess We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Unless you have a jackpot and none changeover fetish, I’d be happy from Dave on north and west. I’m sure Dave will meh it at first, but then he’ll post wintry scenes of walking the dog and his snow covered dirt path of a street. Yeah N ORH county will prob do decent…they will have some assist on the east flow too with a little bit of orographic cooling. I don’t think it’s going to be that good south of there. I’m expecting maybe a couple sloppy inches…but wouldn’t be surprised if I end up with less than that. I’d consider it a huge win if I scored more than 3”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Tolland Death Band said: There are times tho where we go to rain at 34 and union/Stafford stays freezing. Seen a few I-84 highway debacles up there in marginal setups. how much are you expecting tonight? Yes that happens . Especially Union I’ve seen that . But there’s never elevation events that we get 3” and they get a foot . I’ve had 2-4” as the forecast for our area. I suppose if these colder trends continue, maybe we could eek out 5”, but that’s the ceiling . Maybe an inch of fluff tomorrow nite with the upper trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 40 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: yup even an hour or two will make a difference.. ill be at work tonight.. will be interesting coming home in the morning I think What's your elevation in Belchertown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGiant611 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 NWS Gray has us under a WSW, calling for 6-12”. Surprising for others here? They state periods of 1-3” snowfall rates (thundersnow, anyone) will drive total accumulations. All this storm would need to do is drift 50 or more so miles from its forecasted position and Mark and I could be in the Jack zone. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 I think Will's pointing out the key metric/wild card ... timing the exact retreat of the high is critical for timing p-type ... and cold resisting in general. It really really depends on that. Trust me... I am not "old" ...by I old enough and have experienced this sort of thing in the past, where synoptic turn around is truly extraordinary leaving one dazed in observance. I've described this in the past, so won't turn too much pen .. but Jan 1994 hosted an event that flipped 9 F, blue tinted snow grainy dawn, to 62 F southerly gales by 9 pm that same evening across SNE. That situation was had 0 high pressure N. The day prior, it did...and it was as stingy arctic air mass. That night, while decoupling and radiating off a snow pack, we zoomed into the single digits, but just above...the synoptic high pressure was quickly rolling out and receding east, leaving that cold at that dawn completely abandoned and exposed. It can happen. You can go from Dead Horse to the Del Marva in 9 hours given the right kind of face smacking. This does offer some +PP curvature ... more so than back whence ( as our virtual perfect pork job example LOL ). How much resistance is really dicey ... obviously some common sense convention knows that the southern half of CT-RI and SE Mass cook first. But the speed of erosion and all that. .. if the higher res models are in fact really belaying the high retreat east, our penchants for fighting off warm in the interior kicks in, in lockstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 30 minutes ago, Greg said: There is one more type of map we don't really talk about or go over much on these forums but the 12KM and 3KM have a "positive Snow Depth Change" feature. Not sure how accurate it is or what its' algorithms take into consideration but, it shows a lower amount of snow left over than the snowfall forecast. Not sure either how much it has verified in the past. Just brought it up because many want to know how much snow will be left after the rain or any sleet at all. So, check it out if you want, even post them if so. Just another tool to merely look at. It has me at 1-2 inches that's what I have now so we'll see how it performs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah N ORH county will prob do decent…they will have some assist on the east flow too with a little bit of orographic cooling. I don’t think it’s going to be that good south of there. I’m expecting maybe a couple sloppy inches…but wouldn’t be surprised if I end up with less than that. I’d consider it a huge win if I scored more than 3”. Yeah agree. That’s probably what happens. I’m out of it, so just watching from the sidelines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: What's your elevation in Belchertown? the app I got says 562 but no idea how right it is parts of town are higher some lower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duncanwxnh Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said: I accept an outcome of 15" for me. no dreaming allowed neighbor!!! (However, I agree) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 7 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: It has me at 1-2 inches that's what I have now so we'll see how it performs. Makes me wonder a little if we should take the "Positive Depth Change map" and average the "forecast map" together and the truth of what really falls may lie somewhere between there. Just a mere tongue and cheek thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 16/-6 at DAW NWS with 23 for a high there. Ain’t happenin’. 50% odds DAW doesn’t see 20F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 11 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: the app I got says 562 but no idea how right it is parts of town are higher some lower I bet 15 minutes up 202 in Shutesbury at almost 1,300' gets a lot more than we do. Such a cool spot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Snowing in Atlanta atleast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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