dryslot Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Nam 12K, 3K as well as the HRRR are a couple tics colder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Scooter and Jerry deroofed? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Not sure if this was posted 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 2:18 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: Not sure if this was posted Expand Seems like a solid map. I doubt I would change much. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 2:17 PM, Ginx snewx said: Scooter and Jerry deroofed? Expand Yeah. Take em off ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Really difficult forecast for DAW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 2:06 PM, ORH_wxman said: 3km NAM is pretty cold on the front end this run. Tries to give several inches here. Expand Yeah HRRR has a few decent hours of snow here. Still not my cup of tea with the heavy rain after, but maybe you and Kev can net gain/net zero from it. Still gross to me though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 2:24 PM, JC-CT said: Yeah HRRR has a few decent hours of snow here. Still not my cup of tea with the heavy rain after, but maybe you and Kev can net gain/net zero from it. Still gross to me though. Expand Yeah it’s not really that exciting unless we score 5-6”+ but I guess it’s slightly better than all rain. Mostly useless stat padder when you get 2-4” that’s wiped out a few hours later. But who knows, maybe we’ll get a positive surprise given the cold antecedent airmass. But usually this synoptic setup isn’t conductive to the positive bust…feels more like negative downside is the skew. You want to see a high being slower to move out than modeled to have a chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Every storm has surprises. Would not be shocked at all to see some place such as ORH pile up 8 inches really quick and then hold a bunch of it through the briefer-than-expected rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 2:28 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it’s not really that exciting unless we score 5-6”+ but I guess it’s slightly better than all rain. Mostly useless stat padder when you get 2-4” that’s wiped out a few hours later. But who knows, maybe we’ll get a positive surprise given the cold antecedent airmass. But usually this synoptic setup isn’t conductive to the positive bust…feels more like negative downside is the skew. You want to see a high being slower to move out than modeled to have a chance. Expand Really is a tough call with this where we live especially me. And I’ve started learning that maybe 18z and 06z runs might not always be as “accurate” as 00z and 12z, and the latter two seem colder for the past three of their cycles don’t they. Still it’s a little frustrating to see 8 plus totals in litchfield county while a similar latitude of eastern CT gets maybe 1-2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 GYX latest map 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 12:31 PM, Ginx snewx said: I kept thinking about what Will and Scott said about how they had never seen such a hard left turn at 5h, really unusual. This morning it hit me. This is exactly what happened in superstorm 93, mega difference is no retreating Arctic air mass but 93 track is pretty much spot on to this mini 93 Expand I thought that tracked over se ct and RI....isn't this going to central NY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 2:36 PM, codfishsnowman said: I thought that tracked over se ct and RI....isn't this going to central NY? Expand That example also had a sharp ridge out west. This one had a ridge practically folding on top of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 For those in higher elevations, have some shear pins handy for your snowblowers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 2:38 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: For those in higher elevations, have some shear pins handy for your snowblowers. Expand I regret not getting the snowblower with the tank treads every storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 2:36 PM, dryslot said: GYX latest map Expand Big snows for the ski areas. Hopefully it pans out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 2:41 PM, PhineasC said: Big snows for the ski areas. Hopefully it pans out. Expand Some of these places are going to see that initial thump with 2-3"/hr rates, I would favor SR over to the Loaf, That whole corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 2:32 PM, IowaStorm05 said: Really is a tough call with this where we live especially me. And I’ve started learning that maybe 18z and 06z runs might not always be as “accurate” as 00z and 12z, and the latter two seem colder for the past three of their cycles don’t they. Still it’s a little frustrating to see 8 plus totals in litchfield county while a similar latitude of eastern CT gets maybe 1-2 inches. Expand Just wait til some "slightly right escaping " Miller B puts down 20 to 30 on the Cape and Islands while Se CT sees just a few windblown inches and NW of ORH and HFD/BDL smokes heavy heavy cirrus 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 2:06 PM, ORH_wxman said: 3km NAM is pretty cold on the front end this run. Tries to give several inches here. Expand Will, what do you think of the 3km and HRRR being so cold, big difference down here in CT as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 What's the best thinking as to when the snow will be changing to rain in Worcester. Asking for a wife. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 2:47 PM, moneypitmike said: What's the best thinking as to when the snow will be changing to rain in Worcester. Asking for a wife. Expand I would think by 8 or 9AM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 2:43 PM, codfishsnowman said: Just wait til some "slightly right escaping " Miller B puts down 20 to 30 on the Cape and Islands while Se CT sees just a few windblown inches and NW of ORH and HFD/BDL smokes heavy heavy cirrus Expand That is a once-every-three-years type scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 BTV map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 2:17 PM, Ginx snewx said: Scooter and Jerry deroofed? Expand The Andrea too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 2:36 PM, dryslot said: GYX latest map Expand Coast FTL. Wish I could fast-forward through this one. Definitely not looking forward to pounding rain and power outages. At least I won't have to deal with the driveway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 2:52 PM, metagraphica said: The Andrea too? Expand Their roof was gone after Sandy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 2:18 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: Not sure if this was posted Expand I think we have more overs than unders on NWS maps this season. Previous deals like this we typically do 2-3" more than lower valley sections like Amherst and Northampton. I think @HIPPYVALLEY does well and pushes 6" being further north. Weenie mode: engage. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 4 inch per hour stuff on NAM in the Berks far NORH County 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 2:28 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it’s not really that exciting unless we score 5-6”+ but I guess it’s slightly better than all rain. Mostly useless stat padder when you get 2-4” that’s wiped out a few hours later. But who knows, maybe we’ll get a positive surprise given the cold antecedent airmass. But usually this synoptic setup isn’t conductive to the positive bust…feels more like negative downside is the skew. You want to see a high being slower to move out than modeled to have a chance. Expand I’ve prepared for the worst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 2:36 PM, codfishsnowman said: I thought that tracked over se ct and RI....isn't this going to central NY? Expand On 1/16/2022 at 2:38 PM, CoastalWx said: That example also had a sharp ridge out west. This one had a ridge practically folding on top of it. Expand 850 and 700 went thru NY state. LP center tracked from west of NYC to NH Maine border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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