WinterWolf Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, dendrite said: Euro is on its own with the 925mb temps. Exactly….so let’s see what happens? If it folds, or ends up wrong at this point, then it deserves to be deleted to JV status. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I don’t anticipate any big swings but any improvements will help some of us especially the N of RT 2 peeps, I think that's the key area if cooler temps happen more of a thump than a dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: I think the 3k has Phinn close to 36" lol It was doing that earlier as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I think that's the key area if cooler temps happen more of a thump than a dump. The WAA moisture will be hitting a wall, so let’s just see the trends on the ML temps over the next few sets of model runs. I mean Jeezuz, I am at 0 / -14 at 10pm. That is some arctic air this thing will be running into at first. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: It doesn't mean much for me but HRRR and NAM have definitely cooled substantially since last night's 0Z We tried and tried and tried to tell em 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 41 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Papin was posting on AmWx??? Papin was a regular as a doctoral candidate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 27 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: I'm an eternal optimist, always hoping for a broken forecast, used to happen a lot when I was a kid so I still have that mentality. As far as the Patriots I think a foot of snow here is more likely than them winning tonight. Likewise when I was a young teen I would hope for an unforecast event of major snowfall. Though still kind of rare, unexpected dumps did happen back in the day. Especially out west. Of course, what I didn’t understand was that they usually didn’t happen if the forecast was clear and sunny, or if the forecast snow level was 4,000 feet above my location. it’s more a matter of underestimating accumulations or slight deviations in track or temperature that do it. And stationary bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 GYX AFD honking 12-18 in the eastern upslopes of the Whites. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Exactly….so let’s see what happens? If it folds, or ends up wrong at this point, then it deserves to be deleted to JV status. I don't think it's that big of an indictment of the euro...its well known that NAM excels with respect to mid level warm tongues. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We tried and tried and tried to tell em Won't make much of a difference down here. Looks like they eroded cold air too fast earlier but it still erodes. You probably never hit above 40 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Papin was a regular as a doctoral candidate. There is, or at least was, an OKX met that posted in the NYC forum, but I suspect it isn't good form to work for NHC or SPC and post on a weather forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Won't make much of a difference down here. Looks like they eroded cold air too fast earlier but it still erodes. You probably never hit above 40 Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Won't make much of a difference down here. Looks like they eroded cold air too fast earlier but it still erodes. You probably never hit above 40 Yea, the upside is 35 and rain. Personally, I'd rather warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, PhineasC said: GYX AFD honking 12-18 in the eastern upslopes of the Whites. You gonna miss a thump. The Whites covered with 2 to 3 feet of snow clung to every surface is a spectacle. The ride from Gorham on 16 to Jackson should be absolutely breath taking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think it's that big of an indictment of the euro...its well known that NAM excels with respect to mid level warm tongues. Ray…it would have never happened to the euro before the update/downgrade before. But that’s my stance. And I think most of us know that! It sucks now. Bring back the pre update euro..please. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EMontpelierWhiteout Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 hour ago, greenmtnwx said: Easy buddy. It was a joke an Phin got it. I didn’t laugh. Stick to the weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, WinterWolf said: Ray…it would have never happened to the euro before the update/downgrade before. But that’s my stance. And I think most of us know that! It sucks now. Bring back the pre update euro..please. I disagree with you. The NAM has always excelled with mid level warming...always. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Not sure what some of you are seeing. NAM looks just as warm as 00z last night and DIT is definitely going over 40. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, dendrite said: Not sure what some of you are seeing. NAM looks just as warm as 00z last night and DIT is definitely going over 40. I didn't look and won't because I don't care....just going off of what they said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Not sure what some of you are seeing. NAM looks just as warm as 00z last night and DIT is definitely going over 40. Not as warm as the cycle just before that if anything. Yesterday I remember NAM runs showing virtually no snow in Southern New England. Now, the snow line keeps creeping southeast with each run on the NAM. With yesterdays evolutions I was sure we were not gonna see more than a few preliminary flakes at my location. And I was scoffing people even talking about it anymore only to get blown away by the 12z that came out this morning right after saying that. For the three of us who live near here… my call is about a sloppy inch… maybe two tops. It might trend back slightly west overnight…. Sort of like a yo-yo with decreasing erratic behavior as you zero in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Not sure what some of you are seeing. NAM looks just as warm as 00z last night and DIT is definitely going over 40. 12k was a furnace aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I disagree with you. The NAM has always excelled with mid level warming...always. That’s cool. But the Euro would never be beat by the NAM at 36 hrs before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 I mean 850 is cooler, but no changes at 925. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, the upside is 35 and rain. Personally, I'd rather warm sector. Wind is my biggest concern. Probably an inversion but those mesos and that squall line could be intense 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 28 minutes ago, dryslot said: I think the 3k has Phinn close to 36" lol 2.25 inches of liquid. (forgot to include the upslope piece) I am jammed against the northern Presidentials so my exact location is hard to differentiate on the snow maps from the peaks where the 3k always goes nuts with rime ice accretion. That model shows like 2-3 feet on the peaks every single run due to that error. Looks like 18 or so here but the 3k gets mix very close by. Poor Gorham snow weenies. Definitely an event where it's rain down there and blasting paste up the hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Not sure what some of you are seeing. NAM looks just as warm as 00z last night and DIT is definitely going over 40. HRR and 3k Nam 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Not sure what some of you are seeing. NAM looks just as warm as 00z last night and DIT is definitely going over 40. HRRR has him at 38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I disagree with you. The NAM has always excelled with mid level warming...always. It’s the model I watch every SWFE to know where my upper snow limits are getting pinned by ML temps. It usually has me pinging 1 - 2 hours before any other model. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You gonna miss a thump. The Whites covered with 2 to 3 feet of snow clung to every surface is a spectacle. The ride from Gorham on 16 to Jack's should be absolutely breath taking yeah, but with the temps it will all still be there on Tue when I get up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Last 5 runs at 925…mostly noise? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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