HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 6:10 PM, snowgeek said: Epic Euro NAM battle. At least it’s fun to watch to see which one folds. They’ve both been so consistent. All about the arctic air depth and magnitude? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Expand As Will stated earlier, the NAM is king of nailing ML warm intrusions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 6:25 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: As Will stated earlier, the NAM is king of nailing ML warm intrusions. Expand It has a larger warm tongue then Gene Simmons. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 So NAM is Buffalo and he Euro is the Patriots ... in head to head Divisional round playoff game this weekend. Heh Finding it interesting that the NAM's the consensus Vegas pick over any model that exists, for predicting synoptic scaled events - oh how times have changed... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 The euro is easily the coldest with 925 temps Mon morning and it's not even close...that's compared to the NAM, GFS, Ukie, GGEM, and RGEM. I didn't not look at the Navy. Sorry George. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 6:18 PM, ORH_wxman said: Lol, trying to give ORH 8-10” this run. Not buying it. Euro is going to fold like a cheap suit to the NAM I bet. Expand we can hope its right but doubtful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 6:31 PM, dendrite said: The euro is easily the coldest with 925 temps Mon morning and it's not even close...that's compared to the NAM, GFS, Ukie, GGEM, and RGEM. I didn't not look at the Navy. Sorry George. Expand Yeah the Euro is the only model that still basically has a snow sounding at ORH (and just north of them) by 12z Monday. Tossed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I am sharing my cam for this event since it looks like it may be pretty good in Randolph. https://video.nest.com/live/KaUbLsdLHN 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 6:35 PM, PhineasC said: I am sharing my cam for this event since it looks like it may be pretty good in Randolph. https://video.nest.com/live/KaUbLsdLHN Expand Maybe you could also just set up a permanent, indoor, “what’s Phin doing” cam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Snowier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 6:21 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: Thump then the dumps Expand sumps and the pumps 1 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 You can see it was a tic or two east @H5 from the 06z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 6:38 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: Maybe you could also just set up a permanent, indoor, “what’s Phin doing” cam? Expand I'm not a Kardashian. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 6:28 PM, Typhoon Tip said: So NAM is Buffalo and he Euro is the Patriots ... in head to head Divisional round playoff game this weekend. Heh Finding it interesting that the NAM's the consensus Vegas pick over any model that exists, for predicting synoptic scaled events - oh how times have changed... Expand I'm never comfortable betting against Belichick! I find the setup and modeling suite fascinating? It's as if the Euro is somehow trying like hell to correct closer to what the large pattern and analogs suggested days ago, but nobody believes it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Cmon King Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Interesting dichotomy in here today. Historically if the Euro went colder it was the big signal now its the NAM? My my Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 6:28 PM, dryslot said: It has a larger warm tongue then Gene Simmons. Expand Warmer butt than than Richard Simmons. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 6:47 PM, dryslot said: You can see it was a tic or two east @H5 from the 06z run. Expand H7 looked a tick more west…and it’s definitely ripping that MLJ more westward into upstate NY. (I’m using 00z) What a waste of deformation snows too….lines up perfectly over lakes Erie and Ontario. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 6:57 PM, dendrite said: H7 looked a tick more west…and it’s definitely ripping that MLJ more westward into upstate NY. (I’m using 00z) What a waste of deformation snows too….lines up perfectly over lakes Erie and Ontario. Expand Hate to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 6:50 PM, FXWX said: I'm never comfortable betting against Belichick! I find the setup and modeling suite fascinating? It's as if the Euro is somehow trying like hell to correct closer to what the large pattern and analogs suggested days ago, but nobody believes it! Expand Ha ha, right ... It is flying in the face of a lot of climate conventions. That said, I do think the ridge in the west is in fact slightly farther west than ideal - that is by no means intended as the silver bullet reason for these warm solutions. Nor the general mise en science of this being more major pain in the ass, than a major storm... But, I get what Will/others are suggesting re the NAM's apparent 'talent' at seeing mid level warm intrusion events there... What I have a "teensy" problem with still, is that the NAM also has a NW bias over eastern N/A, with N turning amplitude. It's in the mid levels where that is notable, with vort trajectories tending to be first in line showing up over the N-W arc of plausible solutions. This strikes me as "maybe" some of that. I mean it's inCREdibly tedious to consider this, but... 2 degrees of longitude where ever the wind max(es) cross 40 N, means the difference between 4" ... 2" ...8"... Plus, whether cold stays anchored enough to lift wind concerns... jeez - lot riding on that. We still have 48 hours, when/where small corrections of that nature can fit. I cannot tell you how many times I have seen a warm 60 hour FOUS grid end up colder <36 hours out... It's not anything anyone should hang their hat on to 'save the day' ... but you know. There's obviously an investment in the desire arc of those contributing to this social media platform, to save what can be saved ...all the way down to moral victories if need be. LOL. When we don't have a blocking high, it all comes down to mid level tracks, and the NAM has a history of being NW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Euro EPS has more east members now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 If the idea is that all the good precip falls in 6 hours and that is snowfall rates of 2-3" an hour, I would definitely sell that. In my experience, the models are quick to spit out monster rates but then they don't materialize. Same thing with people predicting big ratios. Usually verifies as something more pedestrian. I still like 8-10" or so here if this thing hauls ass as much as it looks like it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 6:55 PM, Ginx snewx said: Interesting dichotomy in here today. Historically if the Euro went colder it was the big signal now its the NAM? My my Expand Let’s hope it’s: 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 6:55 PM, Ginx snewx said: Interesting dichotomy in here today. Historically if the Euro went colder it was the big signal now its the NAM? My my Expand I’m praying Euro but since the upgrade that was a downgrade I am wary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 7:14 PM, ineedsnow said: Euro EPS has more east members now Expand Yes it does 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 7:20 PM, dryslot said: Yes it does Expand Still some time left for areas to at least cut down on any mixing and get more snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 7:20 PM, dryslot said: Yes it does Expand Still 36 hours to go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Oh oh. Weenies getting excited. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 7:21 PM, PhineasC said: Still some time left for areas to at least cut down on any mixing and get more snow. Expand The longer we can hold off warming aloft the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 7:26 PM, CoastalWx said: Oh oh. Weenies getting excited. Expand You guys still in moderate drought there? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 7:28 PM, PhineasC said: You guys still in moderate drought there? Expand They won’t be after tomorrow. Just won’t have any electricity to run the well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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