STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Where will highest winds prevail . S coast or Cape , anything high and elevated with snow that will gust (Mt wash doesn’t count ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 6:07 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: Fast mover so at least it’s not over multiple tide cycles. Expand Yeah, at least for the areas getting rain this thing will mercifully be in and out fast. Some of these cutters linger for 36 hours it seems like as they train north to south overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Euro is a nice thump 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 12z Euro looked like it was a tic or two east and a bit colder then 06z, Its getting some snow right to the coastline here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Euro pretty much locked in here last several runs. Hope it doesn't shift. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 12 Z Euro clown 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 6:17 PM, PhineasC said: Euro pretty much locked in here last several runs. Hope it doesn't shift. Expand Just some small nuances it seems right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Here come the Messenger shuffles after a few Mets bought the NAM ram to Buffalo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 6:17 PM, dryslot said: 12z Euro looked like it was a tic or two east and a bit colder then 06z, Its getting some snow right to the coastline here. Expand Up here the surface looks a smidge west vs 0Z: \ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 4:21 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah we'll see...maybe that shortwave comes in weaker. I am admittedly going on anecdotal evidence. Maybe @OceanStWx has some insight onto the statistics of incoming shortwaves recently...if they've been stronger or weaker after being sampled. Expand I’m not aware of any systematic bias with shortwaves lately. I do know in the past models struggled with short wavelength spacing between shortwaves and would keep them too strong. However that normally affected the lead wave more, dampening it out, vs the trailing wave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 6:18 PM, klw said: 12 Z Euro clown Expand The globals all look pretty good for SVT. NAM was horrid, but it'll shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 6:18 PM, dryslot said: Just some small nuances it seems right now. Expand Definitely still some open aperture for areas on the fringes to get more or less snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 6:18 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Here come the Messenger shuffles after a few Mets bought the NAM ram to Buffalo Expand You’re going to get scolded to toss the snow maps! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 What’s with the snow hole over the northern greens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MRVexpat Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 6:22 PM, bwt3650 said: What’s with the snow hole over the northern greens? Expand Shadowed by the Whites? Idk tho. Over the NEK it makes more sense... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Gefs is still showing a spread with the low locations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 6:22 PM, bwt3650 said: What’s with the snow hole over the northern greens? Expand My house sucks it all up on the east flow. You will get fluff on NW winds later to make it up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 6:25 PM, MJO812 said: Gefs is still showing a spread with the low locations Expand Who cares. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 6:21 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: You’re going to get scolded to toss the snow maps! Expand Some of it is sleet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 6:19 PM, OceanStWx said: I’m not aware of any systematic bias with shortwaves lately. I do know in the past models struggled with short wavelength spacing between shortwaves and would keep them too strong. However that normally affected the lead wave more, dampening it out, vs the trailing wave. Expand The bigger issue with shortwaves in the models these days seems to be accurately sampling and ingesting the data on them as they come ashore and being able to forecast what they do with this very progressive flow regime that we've had for what seems to be an extended period of time now... they seem to be crossing the country pretty quickly, I think it takes a while for the modeling to catch up with them in terms of forecasting snow, etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Euro juiced up here from prior runs, 1.7" liquid. Can we get to 2"? That would put 2 feet in play assuming the last several inches are moose fart flakes stacked perfectly after the storm passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 6:19 PM, klw said: Up here the surface looks a smidge west vs 0Z: \ Expand I was looking at H5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 6:18 PM, klw said: 12 Z Euro clown Expand puts Brian in the game for 12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I would take heavy under on those Euro snow maps down this way. For example by 7z it's already up to 32F in Hartford and only about 0.1" of QPF has fallen at that point. With a rapid changeover you're going to have issues with the snow maps and how they're assigning ptype per 3-hour increment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 6:18 PM, klw said: 12 Z Euro clown Expand This is very reasonable IMO...agree with it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 6:28 PM, dryslot said: I was looking at H5. Expand Yeah it looked a little less crazy amped at H5....but small differences. The small difference do matter, but it's hard to tell if they are real when they are small. Could be model noise. Hopefully we get another couple ticks colder and it would vastly improve the overall tenure of the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 6:30 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is very reasonable IMO...agree with it. Expand Yeah the NARCAN maps are likely better in this situation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Funny how narcan puts an inch in the water... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 6:33 PM, weathafella said: Funny how narcan puts an inch in the water... Expand from today maybe? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 6:33 PM, weathafella said: Funny how narcan puts an inch in the water... Expand Its from today's system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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