Monitoring a potential important TV to East Coastal storm: Jan 17

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

 

 

I have tried every one of those.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Maybe we can blow Scooter's roof off on the GFS? Nice little mesolow over E MA.

yeah, so much for the thump to dryslot idea if that happens

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Maybe after 40 posts saying the same thing you sound like a whiny little bitch? Lol

I'm saying the same thing because the same thing keeps happening, unlike you, who seeks alternative solutions that don't work out. Not sure why you are resorting to name calling, but I guess that is the MO when your argument is baseless and has no substance.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Maybe we can blow Scooter's roof off on the GFS? Nice little mesolow over E MA.

Astro high tides.  What are your thoughts about the coast?

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah there may be a frozen glacier at the end....but meh. If it's not at least 5-6", it kind of sucks at this point. If we get a 6+ thump, I'm all for it....but my worry is we get about 2" before the flip which is useless. I don't see this trending back east aloft enough to matter....but stranger things have happened.

This winter finds new ways to disappoint...

Probably one of the most incredible storm evolutions I've ever seen. Every single CIPS analog for that ULL position down south has us either getting big snow or some of them actually fringe us....not s single one rips the storm to our west (at least aloft), yet this time, it is going to achieve that.

If you showed me this below map at 24 hours before the storm begins and told me we'd get drenched with rain from an inland runner, I'd think you were on drugs....lol

 

So ... the obvious take-away from that statement is that if this behaves as currently modeled, it has essentially never been observed

Now that's an interesting system.  

For the general reader:  Doesn't do the winter/snow enthusiasts much good to say that; there's less virtuosity there. However, for the purer Meteorologist/scientist's perspective, this would-be event becomes a truly historic event - worthy of study, and amazement ...

Funny how that works...

I agree with the essence of 'lock and loading' as the current interpretation. It's hard not to give into that as the objectively aware. At some point, we have to accept that we live in a techno-era when weather-related modeling doesn't offer as many corrections at < 90 or so hours; in fact, I'd even go so far as to say "drastic" corrections really are a thing of the past, too rare to really 'realistically hope.'

    ...relative to what one wants, of course.  There are those that don't want a snow storm - but who cares about them, right? LOL.  They scurry and hide amongst us, in the crevasses of the forum landscape, like the early rodent like mammals of the HUGELY lopsided competing Jurassic's apex reign of predators. Ha. 

Anyway, the last I can recall a short duration modulation ... whence hope seemed to will a consensus desire... I have to go back to the 2010 "Boxing Day Storm."   That was 12 years ago.  If anyone knows of any since, ...yeah, I'm not saying there haven't been others.  But to be fair, we mean all but completely abandoned by machine and man interpretation that re-materialize @ < than 48 hours.   

I see couple of "minor" reasons for hope in this.  But I want to emphasize minor.

1 .. The last piece to the puzzle technically still has not been relayed off the Pacific.

2 .. As we are all aware... our near miss ocean storm will soon be teaming up with arriving arctic-polar high, and really advect some nasty cold during the 24 ... 36 hours preceding the event - beginning in earnest tonight.  Which as an aside, later this eve and overnight, that looks like an open sky lapse rate momentum sharing opportunity to me.  Those 30 kts sustained mid BL CAA vectors on the NAM easily come down to tree tops in gust.  ...Anyway, that won't help us very much IF ... the models are correct with the the large synoptic circumstance of the surface high at 54-60 hours ... suddenly unanchoring and slipping E.  I have seen 9 F at dawn become, soar to 62 F in just 12 hours ( Late Jan 1994) - it can happen! However, there is a slim room for the +PP departure to be less problematic for cold.   If the third piece of the puzzle comes in and is weaker... the southern stream won't get drawn as far N, quite as prodigiously as the models currently have.  Thus, the track of the everything, ...mid and below, ends up SE as a later adjustment. 

2 .. there is yet another fleeting possibility... Suppose it comes in stronger yet.  The S/W ridging you see rippling out ahead of it across southern Canada ( left to right above ), would likely evolve stronger... Consequentially ...also as  later adjustment, the the high pressure ( 54-60 or so hours) would transiently holds on longer as this mess comes N.  That could have an interesting counter-effect of creating damming/'barrier' jet activity, and .. .heh, more of a moral victor than anything else because that slam the warm sector intrusion shut.  

 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm saying the same thing because the same thing keeps happening, unlike you, or seeks alternative solutions that don't work out. Not sure why you are resorting to name calling, but I guess that is the MO when argument is baseless and has no substance.

Meh can recall dozens and dozens of years where snow was slow to start. Suck it up buttercup 

[Great Snow 1717]

32 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's a gift and a curse. The right storm could go batshit crazy and drop widespread 30-40"+ totals eventually. 

That's still possible next 2 weeks as pattern remains favorable. 

About as likely as Liz Hurley and Selma Hayak showing up at my home tonight for dinner...

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Meh can recall dozens and dozens of years where snow was slow to start. Suck it up buttercup 

Sure, but its been 4 years since its happened here. I get that other areas like yours' have done better, but I can only comment on the weather that I experience.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I may start soon.  TreeHouse Deerfield now open for pours!  Outdoor skating, atrium lounge, concert theater.

If Ryans and Scooters forecasts about the NAM being right with temps near 60 and damaging winds are correct , I’ll meet you there at 1:00

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

    ...relative to what one wants, of course.  There are those that don't want a snow storm - but who cares about them. LOL.  They hide amongst us, in the crevasses of the forum landscape, like early rodent like mammals in HUGELY lopsided competing Jurassic's apex reign of predators. Ha. 

art

[bristolri_wx]

5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 

I have tried every one of those.

I made sure to post the good stuff - we need it after this storm.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

So ... the obvious take-away from that statement is that if this behaves as currently modeled, it has essentially never been observed

Now that's an interesting system.  

For the general reader:  Doesn't do the winter/snow enthusiasts, and there's less virtuosity there. However, for the purer Meteorologist/scientist's perspective, this would-be event becomes a truly historic event - worthy of study, and amazement ...

Funny how that works...

I agree with the essence of 'lock and loading' as the current interpretation. It's hard not to give into that as the objectively aware. At some point, we have to accept that we live in a techno-era when weather-related modeling doesn't offer as many corrections at < 90 or so hours; in fact, I'd even go so far as to say "drastic" corrections really are a thing of the past, too rare to really 'realistically hope.'

    ...relative to what one wants, of course.  There are those that don't want a snow storm - but who cares about them. LOL.  They hide amongst us, in the crevasses of the forum landscape, like early rodent like mammals in HUGELY lopsided competing Jurassic's apex reign of predators. Ha. 

Anyway, the last I can recall a short duration modulation ... whence hope seemed to will a consensus desire... I have to go back to the 2010 "Boxing Day Storm."   That was 12 years ago.  If anyone knows of any since, ...yeah, I'm not saying there haven't been others.  But to be fair, we mean all but completely abandoned by machine and man interpretation that re-materialize @ < than 48 hours.   

I see couple of "minor" reasons for hope in this.  But I want to emphasize minor.

1 .. The last piece to the puzzle technically still has not been relayed off the Pacific.

2 .. As we are all aware... our near miss ocean storm will team up team up with arriving arctic-polar high, and really advect some nasty cold during the 24 ... 36 hours preceding the event - beginning in earnest tonight.  Which as an aside, later this eve and overnight, that looks like an open sky lapse rate momentum sharing opportunity to me.  Those 30 kts sustained mid BL CAA vectors on the NAM easily come down to tree tops in gust.  ...Anyway, that won't help us very much IF ... the models are correct with the the large synoptic circumstance of the surface high at 54-60 hours ... suddenly unanchoring and slipping E.  I have seen 9 F at dawn become, 62 F just 12 hours later ( Late Jan 1994) - it can happen! However, there is a slim room for the +PP departure to delay.   If the third piece of the puzzle comes in and is weaker... the southern stream won't get drawn as far N quite as prodigiously as the models currently have.  Thus, the track of the everything, ...mid and below, ends up SE as a later adjustment. 

2 .. there is yet another fleeting possibility... Suppose it comes in stronger yet.  The S/W ridging you see rippling out ahead of it across southern Canada ( left to right above ), would likely be be stronger...such that the high pressure ( 54-60 or so hours) transiently holds on longer as this mess comes N.  That could have an interesting counter-effect of creating damming/'barrier' jet activity, and .. .heh, more of a moral victor than anything else.  

 

Tip discussing alternatives is frowned upon as I found out. You can't discuss anything that doesn't fit the narrative but great post. 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Maybe we can blow Scooter's roof off on the GFS? Nice little mesolow over E MA.

Yeah wow haha. That's some wind.

[CoastalWx]

This thread went to hell. Now Steve is angry. Hate to see it.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

So ... the obvious take-away from that statement is that if this behaves as currently modeled, it has essentially never been observed

Now that's an interesting system.  

For the general reader:  Doesn't do the winter/snow enthusiasts much good to say that; there's less virtuosity there. However, for the purer Meteorologist/scientist's perspective, this would-be event becomes a truly historic event - worthy of study, and amazement ...

Funny how that works...

I agree with the essence of 'lock and loading' as the current interpretation. It's hard not to give into that as the objectively aware. At some point, we have to accept that we live in a techno-era when weather-related modeling doesn't offer as many corrections at < 90 or so hours; in fact, I'd even go so far as to say "drastic" corrections really are a thing of the past, too rare to really 'realistically hope.'

    ...relative to what one wants, of course.  There are those that don't want a snow storm - but who cares about them. LOL.  They hide amongst us, in the crevasses of the forum landscape, like early rodent like mammals in HUGELY lopsided competing Jurassic's apex reign of predators. Ha. 

Anyway, the last I can recall a short duration modulation ... whence hope seemed to will a consensus desire... I have to go back to the 2010 "Boxing Day Storm."   That was 12 years ago.  If anyone knows of any since, ...yeah, I'm not saying there haven't been others.  But to be fair, we mean all but completely abandoned by machine and man interpretation that re-materialize @ < than 48 hours.   

I see couple of "minor" reasons for hope in this.  But I want to emphasize minor.

1 .. The last piece to the puzzle technically still has not been relayed off the Pacific.

2 .. As we are all aware... our near miss ocean storm will team up team up with arriving arctic-polar high, and really advect some nasty cold during the 24 ... 36 hours preceding the event - beginning in earnest tonight.  Which as an aside, later this eve and overnight, that looks like an open sky lapse rate momentum sharing opportunity to me.  Those 30 kts sustained mid BL CAA vectors on the NAM easily come down to tree tops in gust.  ...Anyway, that won't help us very much IF ... the models are correct with the the large synoptic circumstance of the surface high at 54-60 hours ... suddenly unanchoring and slipping E.  I have seen 9 F at dawn become, 62 F just 12 hours later ( Late Jan 1994) - it can happen! However, there is a slim room for the +PP departure to delay.   If the third piece of the puzzle comes in and is weaker... the southern stream won't get drawn as far N quite as prodigiously as the models currently have.  Thus, the track of the everything, ...mid and below, ends up SE as a later adjustment. 

2 .. there is yet another fleeting possibility... Suppose it comes in stronger yet.  The S/W ridging you see rippling out ahead of it across southern Canada ( left to right above ), would likely be be stronger...such that the high pressure ( 54-60 or so hours) transiently holds on longer as this mess comes N.  That could have an interesting counter-effect of creating damming/'barrier' jet activity, and .. .heh, more of a moral victor than anything else.  

 

Yeah if there is a "colder" bust with this system as it pertains to sensible wx, I think the most likely scenario is that model guidance ends up too eager to erode the arctic airmass. I'm skeptical of any large scale changes aloft...in fact, I'm actually expecting that last northern stream piece to come in even stronger when sampled since that often seems to be the case, but we'll see. No guarantees in this business.

However, if model guidance does a semi-poor job at resolving this lower level arctic airmass, then it could be too aggressive pushing that 805-925 warmth into here, so I'm open to the idea that we end up a bit snowier because of that.....but I'm putting that scenario as still unlikely.

[Ginx snewx]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This thread went to hell. Now Steve is angry. Hate to see it.

Just can't understand how I polished a turd by reporting model output. Enjoy the flood its the only flood you got 

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah if there is a "colder" bust with this system as it pertains to sensible wx, I think the most likely scenario is that model guidance ends up too eager to erode the arctic airmass. I'm skeptical of any large scale changes aloft...in fact, I'm actually expecting that last northern stream piece to come in even stronger when sampled since that often seems to be the case, but we'll see. No guarantees in this business.

However, if model guidance does a semi-poor job at resolving this lower level arctic airmass, then it could be too aggressive pushing that 805-925 warmth into here, so I'm open to the idea that we end up a bit snowier because of that.....but I'm putting that scenario as still unlikely.

I agree with you here pretty much entirely re cold handling - yup.  But I am intrigued by that bold statement. 

I'm not sure I find that to be true so much anymore - in fact, rather the opposite.  I've been trying elucidate/bring that to awareness, that we have been consummately correcting mid range events more tepid in character by the time they get to short terms;  something I've noticed since the last great near term sudden correction back in 2010 as I outlined.   I'm not sure if NCEP is doing this... Or if it is just an artifact of fast flows, and the models correcting for that they have to introduce neg interference ...etc...

Both facets could also be true -

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

So ... the obvious take-away from that statement is that if this behaves as currently modeled, it has essentially never been observed

Now that's an interesting system.  

For the general reader:  Doesn't do the winter/snow enthusiasts much good to say that; there's less virtuosity there. However, for the purer Meteorologist/scientist's perspective, this would-be event becomes a truly historic event - worthy of study, and amazement ...

Funny how that works...

I agree with the essence of 'lock and loading' as the current interpretation. It's hard not to give into that as the objectively aware. At some point, we have to accept that we live in a techno-era when weather-related modeling doesn't offer as many corrections at < 90 or so hours; in fact, I'd even go so far as to say "drastic" corrections really are a thing of the past, too rare to really 'realistically hope.'

    ...relative to what one wants, of course.  There are those that don't want a snow storm - but who cares about them, right? LOL.  They scurry and hide amongst us, in the crevasses of the forum landscape, like the early rodent like mammals of the HUGELY lopsided competition of the Jurassic's apex reign of predators. Ha. 

Anyway, the last I can recall a short duration modulation ... whence hope seemed to will a consensus desire... I have to go back to the 2010 "Boxing Day Storm."   That was 12 years ago.  If anyone knows of any since, ...yeah, I'm not saying there haven't been others.  But to be fair, we mean all but completely abandoned by machine and man interpretation that re-materialize @ < than 48 hours.   

I see couple of "minor" reasons for hope in this.  But I want to emphasize minor.

1 .. The last piece to the puzzle technically still has not been relayed off the Pacific.

2 .. As we are all aware... our near miss ocean storm will soon be teaming up with arriving arctic-polar high, and really advect some nasty cold during the 24 ... 36 hours preceding the event - beginning in earnest tonight.  Which as an aside, later this eve and overnight, that looks like an open sky lapse rate momentum sharing opportunity to me.  Those 30 kts sustained mid BL CAA vectors on the NAM easily come down to tree tops in gust.  ...Anyway, that won't help us very much IF ... the models are correct with the the large synoptic circumstance of the surface high at 54-60 hours ... suddenly unanchoring and slipping E.  I have seen 9 F at dawn become, soar to 62 F in just 12 hours ( Late Jan 1994) - it can happen! However, there is a slim room for the +PP departure to be less problematic for cold.   If the third piece of the puzzle comes in and is weaker... the southern stream won't get drawn as far N, quite as prodigiously as the models currently have.  Thus, the track of the everything, ...mid and below, ends up SE as a later adjustment. 

2 .. there is yet another fleeting possibility... Suppose it comes in stronger yet.  The S/W ridging you see rippling out ahead of it across southern Canada ( left to right above ), would likely evolve stronger... Consequentially ...also as  later adjustment, the the high pressure ( 54-60 or so hours) would transiently holds on longer as this mess comes N.  That could have an interesting counter-effect of creating damming/'barrier' jet activity, and .. .heh, more of a moral victor than anything else because that slam the warm sector intrusion shut.  

 

We desperately need a post from you in the January thread....one of your long tedious ones that nobody reads. Folks are so desperate for hope right now that I bet you would have a captive audience for a paragraph or two.

[JC-CT]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We desperately need a post from you in the January thread....one of your long tedious ones that nobody reads. Folks are so desperate for hope right now that I bet you would have a captive audience for a paragraph or two.

Tip 15 minutes from now: This is why the next few weeks should actually correct to a spring-like appeal...

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I don’t get the angst. This storm has looked like puke for even the most favorable sne locations for days now.

Im pretty over this winter as a whole. Nothing really redeeming to speak of. At least in more recent ratters there has been considerable stretches of decent weather, and at least we knew it was garbage.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Just can't understand how I polished a turd by reporting model output. Enjoy the flood its the only flood you got 

Don’t forget the wind, he’s got the wind too!

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I don’t get the angst. This storm has looked like puke for even the most favorable sne locations for days now.

Im pretty over this winter as a whole. Nothing really redeeming to speak of. At least in more recent ratters there has been considerable stretches of decent weather, and at least we knew it was garbage.

I do hope we all remember January 2013

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I agree with you here pretty much entirely re cold handling - yup.  But I am intrigued by that bold statement. 

I'm not sure I find that to be true so much anymore - in fact, rather the opposite.  I've been trying elucidate/bring that to awareness, that we have been consummately correcting mid range events more tepid in character by the time they get to short terms;  something I've noticed since the last great near term sudden correction back in 2010 as I outlined.   I'm not sure if NCEP is doing this... Or if it is just an artifact of fast flows, and the models correcting for that they have to introduce neg interference ...etc...

Both facets could also be true -

Yeah we'll see...maybe that shortwave comes in weaker. I am admittedly going on anecdotal evidence. Maybe @OceanStWx has some insight onto the statistics of incoming shortwaves recently...if they've been stronger or weaker after being sampled.

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Just can't understand how I polished a turd by reporting model output. Enjoy the flood its the only flood you got 

It seemed like you were rather excited and to be honest, I wasn't sure where that was coming from. But whatever, we tide I guess.

[snowman21]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I don’t get the angst. This storm has looked like puke for even the most favorable sne locations for days now.

Im pretty over this winter as a whole. Nothing really redeeming to speak of. At least in more recent ratters there has been considerable stretches of decent weather, and at least we knew it was garbage.

There's still 6 weeks and 3 days left. What if another Feb 2015 is on its way?

[HoarfrostHubb]

Good stuff by John/Tip in there.   This could be historic in a met way.

I still think it will suck though...lol

[Cyclone-68]

I’m just going to close my eyes and pretend this is a land falling tropical system.. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It seemed like you were rather excited and to be honest, I wasn't sure where that was coming from. But whatever, we tide I guess.

I just said it was too early for me to pass judgment.  You guys are sure so be it but having to read another whiny post from Ray makes my skin crawl. 

[PhineasC]

I guess I will need to share my cam for this one so people can get their fix (and possibly laugh when I change to rain too).

[UnitedWx]

30 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I may start soon.  TreeHouse Deerfield now open for pours!  Outdoor skating, atrium lounge, concert theater.

Hops and Hips?