forkyfork Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, dryslot said: Wrong thread there Michael. it's affecting this storm which is what this thread is about 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, forkyfork said: this is going to beef up storms. sorry if people don't like it Now queue up the list of imbeciles who will interpret this as "so you're saying it will never snow in eastern southern New England bc of SST's?!" Of course not-- just more needs to go "right". 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, jbenedet said: Now queue up the list of imbeciles who will interpret this as "so you're saying it will never snow in eastern southern New England bc of SST's?!" Of course not-- just more needs to go "right". Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, jbenedet said: Now queue up the list of imbeciles who will interpret this as "so you're saying it will never snow in eastern southern New England bc of SST's?!" Of course not-- just more needs to go "right". It's a gift and a curse. The right storm could go batshit crazy and drop widespread 30-40"+ totals eventually. That's still possible next 2 weeks as pattern remains favorable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 29 minutes ago, FXWX said: Good post about the CIPS grouping for this storm... I tend to not get overly frustrated or pissed off when a storm does not play-out the way I envisioned or forecast... I've been doing this for too many years to get emotionally involved or bitch when a storm forecast trends away from my original thoughts. But this storm, or should I say the modeling trends, have managed to pissed me off a bit. I do a lot of analog assessment (CIPS & Kocin storms) when a major storm seems to have a chance of developing for the Northeast; in particular SNE. This one is frustrating for the reasons you outlined above. The modeled forecasts for this storm just do not follow the history of upper air / surface setups like this? If you go look at the Feb. 14-17, 1958 event, it is almost a perfect overlay at 500 mb & sfc to what is now underway. The CIPS analogs are remarkably consistent in their assessment of what the vast number of similar setups produced. I have rarely seen (probably never) an analog storm pattern show such different outcomes compared to the current suite of modeling, and I find it a bit unsettling. In the back of my mind, I almost expect there to be a flip back closer to the analog outcome. But then I come back to reality and don't see any positive trends on the major modeling trends. This system appears to be one that will almost completely break away from where my analog method steered me... Yeah well said....It's amazing that not a SINGLE analog is as far west as the current storm on guidance....but guidance is in such good agreement, you can't go against it at this lead time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digityman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 10 minutes ago, forkyfork said: this is going to beef up storms. sorry if people don't like it Kinda glad the ocean water temp in Maine is rising. Maybe can actually enjoy a swim in it in 30 years. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, forkyfork said: it's affecting this storm which is what this thread is about It's negligible....the SSTs that is. SSTs aren't the reason this is over BGM instead of the Cape. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, forkyfork said: it's affecting this storm which is what this thread is about Why? Because the HP retreated instead of staying anchored? Yea ok. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 15 minutes ago, forkyfork said: this is going to beef up storms. sorry if people don't like it "High SSTs in the Atlantic are why the northern stream is coming in so amped and why our 500mb closes off in Kansas and why the surface low tracks through PA." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Why? Because the HP retreated instead of staying anchored? Yea ok. But the surface HP would not have been stronger, and therefore "more anchored" if SST's were near normal? It's an important factor for eastern new England and especially the coastal plain. But one amongst many. The end. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No, SNE...I couldn't care less about NYS, nor does Harvey. That wasn't what I meant, I meant to write it looked conservative up there snowfall wise all things considered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah well said....It's amazing that not a SINGLE analog is as far west as the current storm on guidance....but guidance is in such good agreement, you can't go against it at this lead time. Agree... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah well said....It's amazing that not a SINGLE analog is as far west as the current storm on guidance....but guidance is in such good agreement, you can't go against it at this lead time. Well at least it's fixing that problem for the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, JC-CT said: "High SSTs in the Atlantic are why the northern stream is coming in so amped and why our 500mb closes off in Kansas and why the surface low tracks through PA." It's like you almost forgot everything about New England cold tucks in one sentence. Well done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 40 minutes ago, forkyfork said: climate change Why not; it's blamed for everything else... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: It's like you almost forgot everything about New England cold tucks in one sentence. Well done. Imagine thinking I ever knew anything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 18 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Now queue up the list of imbeciles who will interpret this as "so you're saying it will never snow in eastern southern New England bc of SST's?!" Of course not-- just more needs to go "right". Facepalm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Imagine thinking I ever knew anything. I can only imagine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 44 minutes ago, dryslot said: The Nam at the end of its run is not good so i really don't care what it has or the RGEM, They've both been bad until inside 24-36hrs. This post made me look at the RGEM and man is it ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 9 minutes ago, JC-CT said: "High SSTs in the Atlantic are why the northern stream is coming in so amped and why our 500mb closes off in Kansas and why the surface low tracks through PA." convection bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, PhineasC said: This post made me look at the RGEM and man is it ugly. I didn't bother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Beers 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Most weenies on here do. They don't like to hear it, but tough shit. What the heck are you even talking about. Ray's had at least 40 posts whining about something. Polish this. I have not made a single forecast only posted model output kiss my rear dear 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 GFS looks a tick slower than the last run at 06z... Does not mean much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Beers 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't get why Steve attacks anyone that does that...he gets so defensive when you convey that winter has sucked. Maybe after 40 posts saying the same thing you sound like a whiny little bitch? Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, bristolri_wx said: Though more appropriate for this storm... 2 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Beers I may start soon. TreeHouse Deerfield now open for pours! Outdoor skating, atrium lounge, concert theater. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Maybe we can blow Scooter's roof off on the GFS? Nice little mesolow over E MA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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